ATL: TAMMY - Models

[USTropics]

FWIW, 0z ICON has 958 mb in the MDR. Has this ever happened in late October in MDR proper before?

GFS continues to not develop it.

It would be very rare for any ENSO state, something we haven't seen since 1893 rare:


For an El Nino year, there have only been 5 major hurricanes in the entire basin for the month of October/November (nothing in the MDR):

[Teban54]

0z CMC and 0z Euro (operationals) are both much weaker, showing a TS instead of MH. Just one run though.

Still a lot of strong members on EPS, but not universally strong like 12z yesterday.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has a TS /Hurricane that moves across the NE Caribbean and emerges north of RD.

[ThunderForce]

12z GEFS ensembles still seem to have an overall more northwestwardly track compared to the EPS ensembles.

[Iceresistance]

0z CMC and 0z Euro (operationals) are both much weaker, showing a TS instead of MH. Just one run though.

Still a lot of strong members on EPS, but not universally strong like 12z yesterday.

There are 2 members that do get close to sub-900 at 0z


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S66n4.png

[cycloneye]

Huge difference from yesterdays 12z run that had a strong hurricane in the NE Caribbean.Todays run has nothing.

[Ianswfl]

Huge difference from yesterdays 12z run that had a strong hurricane in the NE Caribbean.Todays run has nothing.

https://i.imgur.com/Gjmacn4.gif

240hr 12z euro ensembles has a really nasty member with a big west shift before the turn.
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET for 94L has TS getting to 100 miles N of N Leewards moving NW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.1N 44.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2023 96 12.1N 44.5W 1009 30
0000UTC 18.10.2023 108 12.3N 47.5W 1007 34
1200UTC 18.10.2023 120 13.0N 50.6W 1006 42
0000UTC 19.10.2023 132 13.9N 53.4W 1003 48
1200UTC 19.10.2023 144 15.3N 55.8W 1000 49
0000UTC 20.10.2023 156 17.0N 58.9W 997 47
1200UTC 20.10.2023 168 18.8N 61.6W 995 44

[Zonacane]

Intensity will vary from run to run. This storm has a very high ceiling.

[cycloneye]

It's dry air.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1712896527088148884




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1712855570758148404

[cycloneye]

GFS is back with development and has the same track of other cyclones of 2023.

[cycloneye]

18z European at 90 hours begins to develop.

[Ptarmigan]

FWIW, 0z ICON has 958 mb in the MDR. Has this ever happened in late October in MDR proper before?
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9MFr0GC/image.png

GFS continues to not develop it.

I am sure it has happened before.

[IsabelaWeather]

FWIW, 0z ICON has 958 mb in the MDR. Has this ever happened in late October in MDR proper before?
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9MFr0GC/image.png

GFS continues to not develop it.

I am sure it has happened before.

I would like to highlight this storm, we are acting like it's impossible to get a strong hurricane here in October. Is it rare? Yes, but it can and has happened.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It'll end up in Nova Scotia somehow I bet, J/k maybe.

[Blown Away]

Decent NW shift in 00z models, if this trend holds good news for the Caribbean…

[ConvergenceZone]

The USA is getting so incredibly lucky this year. I know that recurves are common, but still when you think that we are up to the S Storm and we've only had to deal with one bad storm the USA.... I would have never thought that would have been he case if someone told me we would be up to the S Storm by October.. It's much quieter now than September, so let's hope this is the last one.............

[cycloneye]

Very close call from European to the Leewards.

[Blown Away]

Models seem to be trending away from the Caribbean, let’s hope that continues. Amazing this several month MDR recurve pattern continues.

[cycloneye]

Models going up a lot on intensity.