ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mantis83]

the relatively safe recurve pattern away from land continues it seems.......wow what persistence and good fortune!

[cheezyWXguy]

the relatively safe recurve pattern away from land continues it seems.......wow what persistence and good fortune!

Can’t really say this til it passes the islands. Circulation center was found further south than best track indicates, which has a chance of altering track to some degree. Also several eps members still showing a hit. We shouldn’t be inviting people to let their guard down.

[cycloneye]

Yikes.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1713221156130697410

[WeatherBoy2000]

Yikes.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1713221156130697410

Really wild for mid October, at this rate we'll be having mdr invests into November. Luckily, most of the mdr stuff has been weak and/or recurved early on, hopefully this is the case here for the islands.

[Category5Kaiju]

the relatively safe recurve pattern away from land continues it seems.......wow what persistence and good fortune!

Don't jinx it

Because what if this new system ends up being an exception? Have to be prepared in the event like that at all times!

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have not become any better organized this afternoon. Environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[HurricaneRyan]

the relatively safe recurve pattern away from land continues it seems.......wow what persistence and good fortune!

Don't jinx it

Because what if this new system ends up being an exception? Have to be prepared in the event like that at all times!

This. Especially because the next name on the list is Tammy. I had a half-sister with that name and she wasn't exactly nice. If I had to pick between which names on the list left sounded the nastiest, Tammy sounds the worst.

[WalterWhite]

Bingo. ASCAT hits partially but has a closed low and is more south than the 12z Best Track position.

https://i.imgur.com/pVOU0NT.png

Why has the NHC not classified this a tropical cyclone yet?

[cycloneye]

No TD at 18z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2023101418, , BEST, 0, 94N, 318W, 30, 1008, LO

[aspen]

Bingo. ASCAT hits partially but has a closed low and is more south than the 12z Best Track position.

https://i.imgur.com/pVOU0NT.png

Why has the NHC not classified this a tropical cyclone yet?

Convection is quite anemic today despite the closed circulation. If we get some convective activity later tonight, the NHC may finally pull the trigger.

[Dean_175]

Yikes.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1713221156130697410

And it will be a T storm during what may end up being a strong El Nino year. Really quite amazing if not even unprecedented in the era of records? After a few slow(ish) years 2013-2015, we have really seen increased activity in the Atlantic since 2017 relative to the post 1995 background state.

[Nimbus]

Bingo. ASCAT hits partially but has a closed low and is more south than the 12z Best Track position.

https://i.imgur.com/pVOU0NT.png

Why has the NHC not classified this a tropical cyclone yet?

Convection is quite anemic today despite the closed circulation. If we get some convective activity later tonight, the NHC may finally pull the trigger.

The weak and west track is bad for the island forecast with ridging north of the track.
The models are pulling this north only after it reaches Tropical storm or hurricane strength where the steering would be different.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become less organized since this morning. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward across the central and western
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

the relatively safe recurve pattern away from land continues it seems.......wow what persistence and good fortune!

Those “recurve” tracks are over Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Interesting that the winds are down from 30kt to 25kt.

AL, 94, 2023101500, , BEST, 0, 95N, 325W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 9.5N

D. 33.2W

E. FIVE/MET-10

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING SUGGESTS A DT=1.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE A DISCRETE LLCC COULD NOT BE LOCATED AND
MAY BE OBSCURED BY EITHER OF TWO FLARE-UPS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Small recent hot tower just south of 10N probably locates the center between the two larger areas of convection.
Shear keeping these systems weak but look at that narrow tropical ridge circulation rolling east over PR in the WV.

[abajan]

AL, 94, 2023101506, , BEST, 0, 96N, 333W, 25, 1010, LO

[DioBrando]

AL, 94, 2023101506, , BEST, 0, 96N, 333W, 25, 1010, LO

https://images2.imgbox.com/15/42/xYvdH1IU_o.png

Models downtrending, bust, dry air next