EPAC: NORMA - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

EP, 90, 2023101600, , BEST, 0, 120N, 999W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, ep712023 to ep902023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep902023.dat

[Yellow Evan]

Upper environment on global models are pretty ideal for the next 4 days though it gets worse thereafter as mid and upper level flow accelerates.

[Hurricane2022]

We are in October, El Niño is strengthening... It would be at least interesting to see a somewhat weaker version of Hurricane Patricia/Kenna...

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty good chance this is the next major, classic October recurve into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms
that have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next
day or so. This system is expected to move slowly westward and
then turn northwestward late in the week offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 161824
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 16/1800Z

C. 11.4N

D. 102.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 AND
THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Classifiable or very close to.

[Yellow Evan]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and
a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next day or
so. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and
then turn northwestward and northward late in the week offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and
a tropical depression is very likely to form on Tuesday. This
system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and then turn
northwestward or northward late in the week offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Got some nice banding going on now. Agreed that this is probably already a TC.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico are gradually becoming better organized, but the low still
does not have a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is very likely to form later today or tonight. This
system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and then turn
northwestward or northward late in the week offshore of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 171223
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 17/1200Z

C. 12.2N

D. 105.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT ARE ALSO
2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico have become better
organized this morning. If these trends continue, advisories will
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or
tropical storm later today. Additional information on this system,
including gale and storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

It should be TS Norma later this afternoon. Agree.

 https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1714349409532854392

[KirbyDude25]

TXPZ25 KNES 171824
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 17/1800Z

C. 12.9N

D. 106.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET AND PT ARE 2.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

I think this is the first time I've ever seen T3.0 from an invest

[Yellow Evan]

Current structure does not favor short term intensification and rather is vulnerable to dry air intrusions.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 90, 2023101712, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1058W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 70, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 90, 2023101718, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1070W, 35, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 120, 1009, 180, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

[zzzh]

TS Norma.