2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[jconsor]

Definitely has been a break in the past four weeks. I think it's more likely than not we see at least one more hurricane given the upper level pattern expected next two weeks. Wouldn't be surprised to see another high-latitude hurricane in the subtropics as well in late Oct-Nov.

A couple days ago, models suggested 94L could become an unprecedented mid-October Cabo Verde hurricane, now its development is looking less certain and a hurricane is starting to appear unlikely. Seems like that October Nino shutdown Andy Hazelton speculated is happening after all. We haven't had a single hurricane since September 22; if no more hurricanes form Nigel will be the earliest last hurricane in the basin since 2013.

[zzzh]

And Tammy became a hurricane.

[gatorcane]

There was never really a question of whether the MDR east of the Caribbean between the Lesser Antilles and Africa as well as the subtropical Atlantic would produce some storms this year due to the warmer than normal SSTs, despite El Nino. The question was what would the Caribbean and Gulf produce? Those regions have been very quiet this season outside of Idalia, the only surprise significant storm and even it struggled in the NW Caribbean.

And as expected the Western Caribbean has been a ghost town late season thanks to El Niño. Still a possibility of something getting going down there between now and season end, but the mainland US season including Florida has been over for weeks now due to strong upper-level winds ripping across the northern Gulf and Florida since mid last month.

[Weathertracker96]

There was never really a question of whether the MDR east of the Caribbean between the Lesser Antilles and Africa as well as the subtropical Atlantic would produce some storms this year due to the warmer than normal SSTs, despite El Nino. The question was what would the Caribbean and Gulf produce? Those regions have been very quiet this season outside of Idalia, the only surprise significant storm and even it struggled in the NW Caribbean.

And as expected the Western Caribbean has been a ghost town late season thanks to El Niño. Still a possibility of something getting going down there between now and season end, but the mainland US season including Florida has been over for weeks now due to strong upper-level winds ripping across the northern Gulf and Florida since mid last month.

Interesting analysis. You made some good points. Me personally, I feel the US should still keep an eye on the tropics. I wouldn’t let my guard in case Mother Nature throws a surprise. Who would’ve thought in a El-Nino year, we would have all these storms forming to begin with.

[Category5Kaiju]

With 95L, this season would likely produce 21 NSs (and who knows what late this month or November will bring?). I mean, wow. During a strong El Nino too. Looks like the University of Arizona's insane NS prediction that many (myself included) sort of laughed at may not have been that far-fetched after all!

[WalterWhite]

With 95L, this season would likely produce 21 NSs (and who knows what late this month or November will bring?). I mean, wow. During a strong El Nino too. Looks like the University of Arizona's insane NS prediction that many (myself included) sort of laughed at may not have been that far-fetched after all!

What about their ACE predictions, though?

[Spacecoast]

Up to and including Tammy, the Named Storm to Hurricane ratio continues it's long term, widening trend.....

[Zonacane]

Up to and including Tammy, the Named Storm to Hurricane ratio continues it's long term, widening trend.....

https://i.ibb.co/xm2z0HV/stat.jpg

Why does it matter?

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908810131132773



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908812534448363

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908810131132773?t=mVd02-Y7B1ZKhZxB2pxTSw&s=19
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908812534448363?t=Zcq0nhX444DMxfBp8UQG9Q&s=19

I thoughts Octants 3 and 4 were the most favorable for development.

[jconsor]

For La Ninas, MJO phases 3 and 4 (convection focused over e. Africa/Indian Ocean) tend to be most favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
For El Ninos, phases 8 and 1 are most favorable. See my posts on Twitter explaining this:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1691422330625363969




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1716890265397678487

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908810131132773?t=mVd02-Y7B1ZKhZxB2pxTSw&s=19
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908812534448363?t=Zcq0nhX444DMxfBp8UQG9Q&s=19

I thoughts Octants 3 and 4 were the most favorable for development.

[jconsor]

For La Ninas, MJO phases 3 and 4 (convection focused over e. Africa/Indian Ocean) tend to be most favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
For El Ninos, phases 8 and 1 are most favorable. See my posts on Twitter explaining this:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1691422330625363969




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1716890265397678487

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908810131132773?t=mVd02-Y7B1ZKhZxB2pxTSw&s=19
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1716908812534448363?t=Zcq0nhX444DMxfBp8UQG9Q&s=19

I thoughts Octants 3 and 4 were the most favorable for development.

[cycloneye]

Above-normal 2023 season with El Niño.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1719466574203981862

[Teban54]

Above-normal 2023 season with El Niño.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1719466574203981862

Worth noting this is using 1991-2020 climo, which includes a disproportionately large number of +AMO years and hyperactive years.

[Woofde]

Above-normal 2023 season with El Niño.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1719466574203981862

Worth noting this is using 1991-2020 climo, which includes a disproportionately large number of +AMO years and hyperactive years.

It definitely shows that this season vastly over acheived considering the "strong" el nino. The 1981 - 2010 average was 105.6 with a median of 92.4. The 1991 - 2020 average is 122.1 with a median of 129.5 We are sitting at 145.6 which is wayyy ahead of the old benchmarks, and solidly ahead of the recent ones.

While el nino tends to be looked at as the king decider, the Atlantic was able to push back this year with its continuing trend of record breaking SSTs. Since the 3 year lull during 2013-2015 ended, the Atlantic has been on a tear with above averages seasons. Only 2022 sticks out even though by old standards it would've been completely average.

[al78]

Up to and including Tammy, the Named Storm to Hurricane ratio continues it's long term, widening trend.....

https://i.ibb.co/xm2z0HV/stat.jpg

This can be at least partly explained by better instrumentation and ability to detect short lived weak or borderline tropical cyclones out at sea that would almost certainly have been missed prior to the satellite era. Redraw the graph with the same data minus the weak tropical storms that lasted less than a day and compare. Would the unnamed January storm, Arlene, Emily, Jose, Katia, Rina and Sean been detected before WWII?

[LarryWx]

Whereas ACE/# of storms were far above any other El Niño season of this strength on record thanks to the record warm Atlantic, there has still so far been out of the numerous storms only one TC that moved W or WNW west of 74W. That’s largely because of a very weak mean Bermuda high, which is common with El Niño or oncoming El Niño seasons. So, regarding storm tracks, El Niño was still very much in charge.

[SFLcane]

Whereas ACE/# of storms were far above any other El Niño season of this strength on record thanks to the record warm Atlantic, there has still so far been out of the numerous storms only one TC that moved W or WNW west of 74W. That’s largely because of a very weak mean Bermuda high, which is common with El Niño or oncoming El Niño seasons. So, regarding storm tracks, El Niño was still very much in charge.

One most prepare for the incoming barrage in 2024.. Pretty certain it will be a blockbuster year potentiallly with a la nina and a stronger high but as always who will it be busy for the fish or the Conus. Stay Tuned!

[cycloneye]

Whereas ACE/# of storms were far above any other El Niño season of this strength on record thanks to the record warm Atlantic, there has still so far been out of the numerous storms only one TC that moved W or WNW west of 74W. That’s largely because of a very weak mean Bermuda high, which is common with El Niño or oncoming El Niño seasons. So, regarding storm tracks, El Niño was still very much in charge.

One most prepare for the incoming barrage in 2024.. Pretty certain it will be a blockbuster year potentiallly with a la nina and a stronger high but as always who will it be busy for the fish or the Conus. Stay Tuned!

The Caribbean will be a hot spot in 2024.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whereas ACE/# of storms were far above any other El Niño season of this strength on record thanks to the record warm Atlantic, there has still so far been out of the numerous storms only one TC that moved W or WNW west of 74W. That’s largely because of a very weak mean Bermuda high, which is common with El Niño or oncoming El Niño seasons. So, regarding storm tracks, El Niño was still very much in charge.

One most prepare for the incoming barrage in 2024.. Pretty certain it will be a blockbuster year potentiallly with a la nina and a stronger high but as always who will it be busy for the fish or the Conus. Stay Tuned!

Yeah, you know there's a decently high chance of an active season when people are already talking about the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season in November of 2023