ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1715696442742911227

[Sciencerocks]

[Cachondo23]

Looks like the island of La Désirade, east of Guadaloupe, will get the core of Tammy in the upcoming hours.

[aspen]

Some of the earlier passes this morning might’ve supported 75 kt. Right now it looks like Tammy has slightly weakened again, but remains a hurricane.

Also NOAA3 got a ~100 kt SFMR reading that somehow isn’t flagged lol.

[msbee]

I feel like I am waiting for something that never will come. Tammy is taking her own sweet time.

[cycloneye]

I feel like I am waiting for something that never will come. Tammy is taking her own sweet time.

There she is on the move, but moving slow. Stay safe there Barbara and also Patti.

[zzzh]

I see some dry air intrusion, intensity is likely going down.

[MarioProtVI]

Some of the earlier passes this morning might’ve supported 75 kt. Right now it looks like Tammy has slightly weakened again, but remains a hurricane.

Also NOAA3 got a ~100 kt SFMR reading that somehow isn’t flagged lol.

About 2 hours later and they find 84 kt FL at 750 mb..probably still 75 kt. Although it could be down to 70 kt because I think I can see the western edge of the circulation being exposed?

[cycloneye]

Just east of Maria Galante.

[wxman57]

Wind shear is hitting it hard. Rain doesn't even extend west to Guadeloupe. This is not a strengthening hurricane. Airport there (TFFR) reporting NE wind at 5 kts only 55 miles from the center.

[wxman57]

I feel like I am waiting for something that never will come. Tammy is taking her own sweet time.

It's not looking like you'll see much from Tammy at all. Tammy is very disorganized now, with nothing more than about 30 miles west of its center.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Wind shear is hitting it hard. Rain doesn't even extend west to Guadeloupe. This is not a strengthening hurricane. Airport there (TFFR) reporting NE wind at 5 kts only 55 miles from the center.

It’s not really wind shear, what seems to be the case is some dry air. It is trying its hardest as a strong burst is firing over the center where recon pegged it, so it should at least hold steady at 70-75 kt for now. I think it has a better chance though at robust intensification north of the islands once it interacts with the trough/jet. Maybe brief C2 peak there.

[wxman57]

Wind shear is hitting it hard. Rain doesn't even extend west to Guadeloupe. This is not a strengthening hurricane. Airport there (TFFR) reporting NE wind at 5 kts only 55 miles from the center.

It’s not really wind shear, what seems to be the case is some dry air. It is trying its hardest as a strong burst is firing over the center where recon pegged it, so it should at least hold steady at 70-75 kt for now. I think it has a better chance though at robust intensification north of the islands once it interacts with the trough/jet. Maybe brief C2 peak there.

There is no evidence of dry air on a vertical sounding. Moist all the way up.

[wxman57]

A windless hurricane? Wind is missing the islands, anyway.

[ouragans]

I'm in Guadeloupe, and it's very surprising. Except Desirade island on which there might have a landfall, there was no wind at all, very little rain. I was live on a private TV channel answering an interview, and I wasn't able to explain what was happening.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I'm in Guadeloupe, and it's very surprising. Except Desirade island on which there might have a landfall, there was no wind at all, very little rain. I was live on a private TV channel answering an interview, and I wasn't able to explain what was happening.

Not surprising, this storm is tiny. Some pretty nasty winds on La Desirade though, been seeing tweets all there showing hurricane conditions (likely with near-C2 gusts) for the past couple of hours.

Here's some of 'em:

 https://twitter.com/brunobalmokoun/status/1715768289849184461




 https://twitter.com/stimpflingeric/status/1715762385426792646




 https://twitter.com/actus_meteo/status/1715767544651428169




 https://twitter.com/brunobalmokoun/status/1715780101843906595




 https://twitter.com/stimpflingeric/status/1715741848654774697




 https://twitter.com/brunobalmokoun/status/1715779038185136154

[ouragans]

Warning has just been lifted in Guadeloupe, at 2:50PM

[aspen]

Recon just confirmed this is still a 70-75 kt hurricane, and an ugly one at that. Probably the ugliest looking hurricane since Barry.

[Ubuntwo]

Recon just confirmed this is still a 70-75 kt hurricane, and an ugly one at that. Probably the ugliest looking hurricane since Barry.

Reminiscent of Elsa when it was in the Caribbean. There's good structure under the hood, though.