Texas Fall 2023

[Ntxw]

The ENS are now following up the Alaskan ridging with some cold air moving southward after a warmup.

GFS is on the cold Halloween train. CMC is shifting towards some western troughing. Euro is more transient but still a cold snap for the period. Definitely looking like your Halloween chill of yesteryear El Ninos.

As far as Norma, cloud cover might keep some temps from shooting to record highs this weekend. For those of us burned by qpf always shifting to our east, perhaps being on the east side is not so bad .

A guy at American Weather is saying a strong -WPO/EPO combo should send some intense cold down aka cross polar flow, albeit early season so definitely modified. He seems intrigued as of now

The rex block over the Bering into AK and Aleutian trough beneath, if verified, would continue to chip away at the NW-Pac warmth undercutting the PDO.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro shifts eastward as well. A blend of the GFS and Euro would hit a lot of areas with much needed rainfall.

[tajmahal]

This explains why the PDO index is not a daily index.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), first defined by Mantua et al. (1997), is the dominant year-round pattern of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific obtained via Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The SST anomalies (denoted SST*) are defined as departures from the climatological annual cycle from which the global mean SST anomaly has been subtracted (as a way of removing any long-term trends that might be associated with externally-forced climate change.... The PDO accounts for 27% of the SST* variance in the HadISST ... data set during the period 1870–2014. The spatial pattern is computed by linearly regressing SST anomalies at each location over the global oceans upon the associated normalized Principal Component (PC) time series. ... The results are robust across different data sets, with small variations prior to 1920 when the data coverage is reduced. The minimum length of record needed to define the PDO is estimated to be about 50 years.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro shifts eastward as well. A blend of the GFS and Euro would hit a lot of areas with much needed rainfall.

Will take the trend!

[Ntxw]

Always a good sign (if you like colder weather) in the cooler seasons with modeled surface high pressures down the plains.

[Brent]

Seeing more and more mets talking about a cold Halloween on social media even one in DFW

TV here had a high of 48 just now

[tajmahal]

Seeing more and more mets talking about a cold Halloween on social media even one in DFW

TV here had a high of 48 just now

Ensemble mean high and low temperature forecasts for Tulsa on Halloween:
56–41...ECMWF
54–38...GFS
57–42...GEM

For Dallas:
62–48...ECMWF
59–49...GFS
61–49...GEM

For Austin Camp Mabry:
64–51...ECMWF
63–53...GFS
63–50...GEM

For Houston:
70–56...ECMWF
72–61...GFS
70–58...GEM

For Amarillo:
59–37...ECMWF
55–36...GFS
57–40...GEM

For Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia (GFS)
–10...High
–22...Low
9.6 inches...Snow depth

https://weather.us

[rwfromkansas]

Halloween should have a slight chill.

I remember trick-or-treating in the snow in Kansas. It appears that was 1991. Got 3-4 inches of snow in my hometown with this crazy event.

https://www.weather.gov/arx/halloween1991

[Gotwood]

CMC coming in with first freeze for a lot of north/central Texas end of the month.

[Itryatgolf]

With the WPO/EPO tanking, we should get pretty cold around here for Halloween standards. The models imo haven't caught on quite yet still. Should be first frost freeze for many.

[Itryatgolf]

Halloween should have a slight chill.

I remember trick-or-treating in the snow in Kansas. It appears that was 1991. Got 3-4 inches of snow in my hometown with this crazy event.

https://www.weather.gov/arx/halloween1991

Halloween 1993 in the midsouth had heavy snow but nothing stuck but it was a cold winter that year

[Gotwood]

With the WPO/EPO tanking, we should get pretty cold around here for Halloween standards. The models imo haven't caught on quite yet still. Should be first frost freeze for many.

Can’t wait I’m ready to skip the fall and go straight to winter lol.

[Itryatgolf]

With the WPO/EPO tanking, we should get pretty cold around here for Halloween standards. The models imo haven't caught on quite yet still. Should be first frost freeze for many.

Can’t wait I’m ready to skip the fall and go straight to winter lol.

We can go from summer straight to winter some years. I'm a firm believer in opportunities during winter because we typically don't have many of them as it is

[Brent]

Wow we definitely go straight to winter on the GFS here that would be something after the last few days

[weatherdude1108]

CMC coming in with first freeze for a lot of north/central Texas end of the month.

Crazy Canadian.

[Iceresistance]

CMC coming in with first freeze for a lot of north/central Texas end of the month.

Crazy Canadian.

Also trying to include an Ice Storm along and north of I-44 in Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

-EPO.

[Ntxw]

Here is the composite some of the memorable cold Halloweens members here have mentioned. Definitely we are heading into a cold period for the dates.

[Itryatgolf]

Here is the composite some of the memorable cold Halloweens members here have mentioned. Definitely we are heading into a cold period for the dates.

https://i.imgur.com/vrxQSQW.png

I hope we can keep the EPO/WPO negative this winter, at least at times to give us a few opportunities.