SPAC: LOLA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

90P INVEST 231018 1800 1.2S 173.2E SHEM 15 1009

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1714719207538258038

[ElectricStorm]

Both GFS and Euro develop this once it moves further south. Seems pretty early for a significant SHEM system but we could see one here.

[ElectricStorm]

HAFS-A is now running for this system and peaks at 102kts/964mb. A major in this area in October would be highly unusual, but some models have been pretty aggressive so far

[Subtrop]

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2 SOUTH 168.6
EAST AT 220300 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 10.2S 168.6E at 220300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
221500 UTC OR INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY 230300 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 11.1S 168.6E AT 221500 UTC
AND NEAR 11.8S 168.5E AT 230300 UTC.

[Hayabusa]

For an El Nino, it failed to develop its twin TC over the NWpac.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1716190435461279800

[Subtrop]

HURRICANE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 230056 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5 SOUTH 169.2
EAST AT 230000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.5S 169.2E at 230000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 07 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
231800UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.4S 168.9E AT 231200UTC
AND NEAR 14.3S 168.4E AT 240000UTC

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 008

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1716274567100956965

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1716295148114477421

[ElectricStorm]

01P LOLA 231023 1200 13.5S 169.7E SHEM 115 948

[Foxfires]

01P LOLA 231023 1200 13.5S 169.7E SHEM 115 948

Dang a C4 I wasn't expecting that.

[Subtrop]

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE 950HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
169.6E AT 231200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TC CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF TC CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

GOOD ORGANISATION WITH EYE DISCERNABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SYSTEM
LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TC LOLA IS STEERED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND YIELDS A DT OF
6.0, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.5 FT BASED ON PT, THUS YIELDING
T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.4S 169.0E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 15.2S 168.2E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 16.0S 167.2E MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 16.8S 166.5E MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1716501666273399098

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1716538452093665630

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1716701773006598637