Texas Fall 2023

[Brent]

My first 33 and rain showing up on the TWC app Sunday Night. Yup it's that time of year....

[rwfromkansas]

I'm approaching an inch for yesterday and today, and it's been a nice soaking rain. Good, since the big show is tomorrow night/Thursday morning I think, so I want to bank around an inch before then to ensure at least 2-3 total hopefully. If so, it will be the biggest rain in months.

[bubba hotep]

DFW airport up to 1.20" of rain, which is overperforming according to most model runs over the last couple of days.

[rwfromkansas]

The probability graphics on the FWD site say only a 20 percent chance of 2 inches for DFW. For once I think it will bust low. I hope, unless something goes wrong with the event tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

The probability graphics on the FWD site say only a 20 percent chance of 2 inches for DFW. For once I think it will bust low. I hope, unless something goes wrong with the event tomorrow.

You got to cash in on these earlier events, since that's where training can happen. The later event has more bust potential because of quicker movement.

[WacoWx]

Is tomorrows event for DFW an on and off all day event similar to today, or is there a more specific time for initiation?

[Ntxw]

Is tomorrows event for DFW an on and off all day event similar to today, or is there a more specific time for initiation?

Tomorrow will likely be quieter than today with not much going on. Tomorrow night and Thursday morning early the line moves west to east.

[Tireman4]

Be afraid, be very afraid! Halloween looks like a wash-out and a cold-out here in Houston. I'd rather have 95F than that.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZOct24IAH.JPG

We are going to win! Cold. Rain. Fun!

[Ntxw]

Cat 4, forecasted cat 5 Otis at landfall around Acapulco Mexico. Just devastating situation down there. El Nino and EPAC is not always friendly for them. But provides us rain.

[lukem]

Cat 4, forecasted cat 5 Otis at landfall around Acapulco Mexico. Just devastating situation down there. El Nino and EPAC is not always friendly for them. But provides us rain.

Will Otis bring moisture to Texas or is it making landfall to far south? Just 18 hours ago they were expecting a tropical storm, so I bet most of the models were discounting it. Praying for those in Mexico that are in its
Path.

[Ntxw]

Cat 4, forecasted cat 5 Otis at landfall around Acapulco Mexico. Just devastating situation down there. El Nino and EPAC is not always friendly for them. But provides us rain.

Will Otis bring moisture to Texas or is it making landfall to far south? Just 18 hours ago they were expecting a tropical storm, so I bet most of the models were discounting it. Praying for those in Mexico that are in its
Path.

Not directly, but it's part of the larger humid envelope with the rising motion from the EPAC->ULL->divergence flow that's giving all of us rain chances currently.

[rwfromkansas]

HRRR trending southwest of DFW with the next round. LOL.

[Brent]

WeatherBug now with a rain/snow mix Monday... Wxman57's favorite season is coming

[tajmahal]

Meanwhile, Lakes Travis and Buchanan continue to shrink. They have lost 2.1% of their volume during the last 13 days. Over the last month, Texas lakes have shrunk 3.1%.

[mmmmsnouts]

Horrifying situation for Acapulco. Otis went from a cat 1 landfall to a cat 5 landfall in about 12 hours. No way they will be adequately prepared and no storm of this magnitude has ever hit that area. It's not even moving quickly.

[rwfromkansas]

Otis seems to be going inland a lot more in the latest track. That hurricane just did what it wanted basically and ignored the models.

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRR lays down some big totals across some of the hard hit drought areas.

[rwfromkansas]

NAM seems to be shifting things east closer to DFW. HRRR seems a bit better as well. Hopeful it will stay strong further east. Either way, I think 2 inches is a given total for this event, so finally a good widespread soaking for not just a few areas.

[JayDT]

Maybe that flood watch should be extended a little further east

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, Lakes Travis and Buchanan continue to shrink. They have lost 2.1% of their volume during the last 13 days. Over the last month, Texas lakes have shrunk 3.1%.

Hopefully they will get some desperately needed runoff in the Buchanan and Travis basins. There is a slight to moderate risk of excessive rainfall out there.