EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From a supposed TS to possible high-end Category 4 landfall? What did I just wake up to?

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks kinda shear on IR with an eye struggling to clear out even if globals are diagnosing only about 10 knots of shear.

If shear was affecting it before, it doesn’t seem to be now. Eye is warming pretty quickly now and given how cold its cdo is, it doesn’t look like it’s leveling off anytime soon. This is looking bad

[Astromanía]

130 kt is the record for wind speed at landfall in EPAC, Otis is currently at 110 kt and still strenghtening

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

There will not be another mission by recon tonight, so NHC will rely on a lucky ASCAT that hits it partial or full.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye is rapidly clearing... Otis has a real solid chance of being close to 125 knots at landfall.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Otis Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

This special advisory is being issued to update the current and
forecast intensity of Otis. Satellite images show that the very
rapid intensification observed earlier today has continued, and the
latest data support an initial intensity of 125 kt. The intensity
forecast peak is updated to 140 kt, category 5 strength, since the
environment isn't forecast to change much before landfall, and there
are no signs of this explosive intensification stopping. This is
an extremely dangerous situation, and all preparations for Otis
should be rushed to completion.

There are no changes to the track or wind radii forecast on this
advisory, and this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the
Intermediate Advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight
or early Wednesday, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0000Z 15.7N 99.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Category 5 inbound. Likely around 120-130 knots right now with eye becoming more defined and warming and the convection from the west earlier has wrapped around.

[ElectricStorm]

I agree with NHC, this is going to break the record for strongest EPAC landfall. Unreal. I really hope everyone is prepared

[cycloneye]

[aspen]

Remember when Otis was only supposed to peak at 40-50 kt?

I can’t really recall any storm like this with such a low early forecast, only for it to explode out of nowhere this close to landfall. I don’t recall many or any model runs showing a major at landfall. Now it might be a 5. Insane.

[galaxy401]

Otis will be the 5th storm to hit Mexico this season. I think it's hitting close to the same area as Max last week. No one there expected this.

[Landy]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1716971756374708529

[AnnularCane]

Remember when Otis was only supposed to peak at 40-50 kt?

I can’t really recall any storm like this with such a low early forecast, only for it to explode out of nowhere this close to landfall. I don’t recall many or any model runs showing a major at landfall. Now it might be a 5. Insane.

Joaquin wasn't supposed to become more than a TD.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1716972676471021754

[canebeard]

Plotting the last three hours of motion from NHC, eye is heading for Acapulco. Hopefully, the mid and upper air data in that area are very accurate, as forecast motion is dependent on that; taking the center west of the only big city around. A 5% right of forecast path for a few hours, or one major wobble east of forecast track could put a category 5 into a major resort area; with only a few hours to prepare; much less get out.

Yikes!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1716972676471021754

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/4Q8nLrH.gif

Wow, both the CDO axissymmetrized and eye warmed in a hurry, nothing to really inhibit it either from now until landfall. I think this is gonna catch a lot of people off guard in Guerrero...

[Teban54]

To show how absurd this RI is, here are model trends within the last 2 days - generally regarded as a reliable range for models. Keep in mind, hurricane models are frequently criticized for being too aggressive.

The forecasts are for 0z Oct 25. NHC's pressure estimate at this time is 941 mb.

HWRF:


HMON:


HAFS-A:


HAFS-B:


GFS:


ECMWF:


None of the hurricane models shows a major hurricane until the last 1-2 frames (6-12 hours ago). Euro still insists that it will be a TS.

[Iceresistance]

This is one of the scariest NHC Special Advisories I have seen...

This special advisory is being issued to update the current and
forecast intensity of Otis. Satellite images show that the very
rapid intensification observed earlier today has continued, and the
latest data support an initial intensity of 125 kt. The intensity
forecast peak is updated to 140 kt, category 5 strength, since the
environment isn't forecast to change much before landfall, and there
are no signs of this explosive intensification stopping. This is
an extremely dangerous situation, and all preparations for Otis
should be rushed to completion.