EPAC: PILAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2023102512, , BEST, 0, 110N, 891W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 105, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, ep732023 to ep922023

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep922023.dat

[cycloneye]

Here we go again.

[wxman57]

Here we go again.

None of the global models indicates any significant development, so far.

[cycloneye]

[aspen]

I’m not writing this off after how badly the models dealt with Otis. With that said, yet another surprise Cat 5 is incredibly unlikely.

[Kingarabian]

Let's hope the models are right with this one.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern
Pacific, partially related to the remnants of Atlantic Tropical
Depression Twenty-One. Environmental conditions should be conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression will
likely form late this week or this weekend while the low moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1717244040335257736

[Yellow Evan]

GFS wants a hurricane in an easterly sheared environment before the monsoon trough randomly absorbs it which is suspicious. Also what the GFS did with Otis.

ECMWF has a weak TC into Central America. Steering flow suggests a potent system in the short term would not move in that direction.

[aspen]

18z HWRF-P for Otis shows this becoming a Cat 3 before weakening as it approaches and slows down near the Mexican coast.

18z GFS heads into Mexico, but then it goes back out into the EPac and re-intensified.

[ElectricStorm]

If this can stay off the coast there's a chance this can become another major but really depends on track.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a little over one hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Central America is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

The models are with different directions and no clear consensus and that is why the residents in Central America and SE Mexico should watch it. Let's hope it does not do what Otis did.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a little over one hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Central America is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves
slowly northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

If the GFS verifies that would be one of the most unusual tracks I've seen for an EPAC storm. Becomes a hurricane, landfalls in Mexico then loops back around and becomes a hurricane again...

Hurricane models are running now, at least they were for 18z. No 0z runs yet.
HWRF has a Cat 1 before weakening at the end of the run.
HMON has a strong Cat 1 before making landfall at around 70-75kts
HAFS-A doesn't develop and HAFS-B has a weak TS.

Given these models recent massive fail with Otis I would take them with a huge grain of salt for now.

[Kingarabian]

If the models are calling for this to stack enough to be a a cat.1/cat.2 then residents should prep for a major hurricane. OHC in the area remains sky high.

[cycloneye]

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves
slowly northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]