ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[zzzh]

AL, 96, 2023102812, , BEST, 0, 196N, 662W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 044, SPAWNINVEST, al792023 to al962023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962023.dat

[floridasun]

What area is invest area the area eastern carribbean look more interesting and sw carribbean?

[Iceresistance]

What area is invest area the area eastern carribbean look more interesting and sw carribbean?

This is north of Puerto Rico


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S89m3.png

[DorkyMcDorkface]

What area is invest area the area eastern carribbean look more interesting and sw carribbean?

This is north of Puerto Rico

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S89m3.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S89m3.png

Interesting how they designate it an invest before highlighting it on the TWO. Don't think I've ever seen them do that before. But I guess that means they'll mention it on the next TWO this afternoon.

[LarryWx]

This weak low has been on all of the models.

[Iceresistance]

What area is invest area the area eastern carribbean look more interesting and sw carribbean?

This is north of Puerto Rico

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S89m3.png
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S89m3.png

Interesting how they designate it an invest before highlighting it on the TWO. Don't think I've ever seen them do that before. But I guess that means they'll mention it on the next TWO this afternoon.

There was an TW that got that before the Lemon earlier this season.

[floridasun]

Models were picking up area north pr past few runs

[Landy]

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
A small area of low pressure has formed about 120 miles northeast
of the coast of the Dominican Republic with disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward, east
of the Bahamas. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for further development by late Monday while the system
turns northward east of the northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Strong wind shear of 40 kt is currently over this. Whatever weak center it has is well displaced from convection. Not going to develop.

[Category5Kaiju]

Strong wind shear of 40 kt is currently over this. Whatever weak center it has is well displaced from convection. Not going to develop.

Well first of all, that's now (the same can't necessarily be said, say, 24 hours from now). Also if anything, the recurring theme this year has been sheared TSs that fight enough to survive for some time, so I think while far from any guarantee or likelihood, there's a nonzero chance this system could briefly snatch a name before dissipating.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a small area of
low pressure located about 200 miles northeast of the coast of the
Dominican Republic. While upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive for further development, this system could become a
short-lived tropical depression or storm over the next day or so. By
Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for
further development as the system turns northward to the east of the
northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[AJC3]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the
discussion of the system over the southwestern Atlantic.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
increasing near the center of an area of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas. A
short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form later
today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward. By
Monday, however, strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the
chances of further development. An Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

You can track the low level center with the Water vapor loop, looks like a Tammy remnant.
Track of the remnant is WSW NHC probability is WNW >.<

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas
continue to show signs of organization. A short-lived tropical
depression or storm is likely to form later today or tonight while
the system moves west-northwestward. By Tuesday, however, strong
upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of further
development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[wxman57]

It's a weak frontal low in a high shear environment. Not worth messing with it. Flying recon into this? Seriously?

[ElectricStorm]

I wonder if this could steal Vince from the Caribbean system. Won't be anything major either way. Probably 35kts max

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder if this could steal Vince from the Caribbean system. Won't be anything major either way. Probably 35kts max

I think it's possible. This season has had the theme of a very high success rate of high-chance-designated AOIs developing into named storms (the notable recent exception being TD21, which simply ran out of time).