Texas Fall 2023

[gpsnowman]

Basically winter here or the closest thing we've had so far for sure without a real shot at frozen precip... Gonna be struggling to stay around 40 all day

Beautiful Sunday morning with cold temps, clouds and wind. Feels refreshing. I hope this isn't our peak winter.

[utpmg]

Still warm (and raining) in Austin. Lake Travis now up 4.7'.

[utpmg]

Finally! FROPA thru here.

[Cpv17]

Basically winter here or the closest thing we've had so far for sure without a real shot at frozen precip... Gonna be struggling to stay around 40 all day

Beautiful Sunday morning with cold temps, clouds and wind. Feels refreshing. I hope this isn't our peak winter.

It wouldn’t even surprise me if it is.

[rwfromkansas]

Basically winter here or the closest thing we've had so far for sure without a real shot at frozen precip... Gonna be struggling to stay around 40 all day

Beautiful Sunday morning with cold temps, clouds and wind. Feels refreshing. I hope this isn't our peak winter.

We have had some dud winters with early cold shots.

Sometimes it seems to be more a curse than help.

[Cpv17]

Basically winter here or the closest thing we've had so far for sure without a real shot at frozen precip... Gonna be struggling to stay around 40 all day

Beautiful Sunday morning with cold temps, clouds and wind. Feels refreshing. I hope this isn't our peak winter.

We have had some dud winters with early cold shots.

Sometimes it seems to be more a curse than help.

That’s what I was thinking too.

[Brent]

Basically winter here or the closest thing we've had so far for sure without a real shot at frozen precip... Gonna be struggling to stay around 40 all day

Beautiful Sunday morning with cold temps, clouds and wind. Feels refreshing. I hope this isn't our peak winter.

Lol I do remember last year the only heavy wet snow here was in mid November and didn't even stick

But then again last winter was one of the worst on record here

[bubba hotep]

After a cold start to the week, temps will warm to seasonal before our next front around the 7th. Then things get murky, but there is an outside chance of another really strong early season cold front around the 10/11th with winter wx potential.

[TropicalTundra]

As the temps drop across Oklahoma, those in the panhandles will probably be getting ice or sleet for a few more hours before everything flushes to the south.

In OKC some of the heavier cells of rain might switch over to frozen precip of some sort. I don't know if the upper levels are cold enough to support snow but I wouldn't rule out a slight chance

[Ntxw]

Is this Halloween or Christmas?!

[Cpv17]

Is this Halloween or Christmas?!

Hopefully we will be getting a front of this magnitude on Christmas too!

[weatherdude1108]

Finally! FROPA thru here.

Was walking the dog around 9:30 this morning. Front literally had just blown through at 9:37 while i was out there (checked my atomic-controlled watch as it happened.lol). I could hear the leaves falling in the distance. Then temp immediately dropped.

A jogger approached as the first breezes came through. He smiled and I waved as we felt the AC kick in, natural AC! Nice.

[Ntxw]

After months of trouble coupling, El Nino finally made an impact for some parts of the state. 8.78" of rain for DFW this month is good enough for #7. A little more than 1" behind October 2015, crazy. Surprisingly, the period, like in 2015, included a Cat 5 (Patricia back then and Otis now) impact on the SW coast of Mexico.

[Itryatgolf]

After months of trouble coupling, El Nino finally made an impact for some parts of the state. 8.78" of rain for DFW this month is good enough for #7. A little more than 1" behind October 2015, crazy. Surprisingly, the period, like in 2015, included a Cat 5 (Patricia back then and Otis now) impact on the SW coast of Mexico.

I think we got a blend of both niño and niña as crazy as that sounds lol. If November turns out colder than normal, I think we go one of two ways. December is warmer than normal and we flip to cold mid Jan on, or we stay cold rest of the fall and winter below normal. Probably a little -removed-, but nobody really knows. The first one is probably more realistic due to a typical niño if we actually have one currently. Just more moving parts than normal this time imo

[Ntxw]

After months of trouble coupling, El Nino finally made an impact for some parts of the state. 8.78" of rain for DFW this month is good enough for #7. A little more than 1" behind October 2015, crazy. Surprisingly, the period, like in 2015, included a Cat 5 (Patricia back then and Otis now) impact on the SW coast of Mexico.

I think we got a blend of both niño and niña as crazy as that sounds lol. If November turns out colder than normal, I think we go one of two ways. December is warmer than normal and we flip to cold mid Jan on, or we stay cold rest of the fall and winter below normal. Probably a little -removed-, but nobody really knows. The first one is probably more realistic due to a typical niño if we actually have one currently. Just more moving parts than normal this time imo

In the current world, you don't predict colder than normal. What you predict, is it warmer or cooler relative to regions. Southwest and South-Central US will be cooler relative to the rest of the US in December, maybe +1F instead of +3F also depends on blocking. Jan and Feb is sensitive to ENSO states.

[bubba hotep]

Front pushing all the way down into Central America?

[CaptinCrunch]

Let's dust off the good old Halloween analogy for fun, seems like a good time for it.

For those who don't know many years ago I showed off a non scientific analogy using 10 yrs of data (at the time) using Halloween as an indicator of what the coming Winter season would be. For those who missed out on those here is the jest of it.

When Halloween was cooler/wetter than average the following winter was also cooler/wetter than average. The same goes when Halloween was warmer/drier then winter would also be warmer/drier than normal.

The crazy thing about this was it was somewhat in the ballpark of correct. The last several Halloweens have been warm and so have the last several Winters (Dec-Feb) as a season. Even the polar plunge of February 2021 occurred in a winter that was warmer/drier over all. It has been awhile since we've had a cold damp Halloween, and with Tuesday forecast of 50s/30s and following our late October monsoon across NTX, this may be the Winter we have been waiting for, a colder/wetter than average Winter.

Last time we had a cold Halloween was 2019 which was also our official 1st freeze. However winter was a bust overall. Last below average Winters were 2013-2014 (coldest winter since 2009-2010 and the foot of snow that fell that February) and 2014-2015 also saw snow.

[Ntxw]

Let's dust off the good old Halloween analogy for fun, seems like a good time for it.

For those who don't know many years ago I showed off a non scientific analogy using 10 yrs of data (at the time) using Halloween as an indicator of what the coming Winter season would be. For those who missed out on those here is the jest of it.

When Halloween was cooler/wetter than average the following winter was also cooler/wetter than average. The same goes when Halloween was warmer/drier then winter would also be warmer/drier than normal.

The crazy thing about this was it was somewhat in the ballpark of correct. The last several Halloweens have been warm and so have the last several Winters (Dec-Feb) as a season. Even the polar plunge of February 2021 occurred in a winter that was warmer/drier over all. It has been awhile since we've had a cold damp Halloween, and with Tuesday forecast of 50s/30s and following our late October monsoon across NTX, this may be the Winter we have been waiting for, a colder/wetter than average Winter.

Last time we had a cold Halloween was 2019 which was also our official 1st freeze. However winter was a bust overall. Last below average Winters were 2013-2014 (coldest winter since 2009-2010 and the foot of snow that fell that February) and 2014-2015 also saw snow.

Great stuff! I remember your Halloween analogy and was a thing I look forward to. There is some correlation out there probably.

Cycles happen in 30-45 day periods so there might be returns near TG and Christmas too. Anecdotally.

What's more intriguing is that October oscillations can sometimes be precursors for winter since the deck is often started in the month, often due to being a true transition month. -EPO and -NAO set the cards for this current cold episode with strong STJ from the El Nino. Perhaps we will repeat this in winter.

[rwfromkansas]

The Lezak recurring cycle theory suggests something about the setting of the sun at the North Pole may be related. This makes sense as that’s when things started flipping.

[rwfromkansas]

Sure seems like models over-exaggerate the heat island effect. None really get me to freezing when usually I am much cooler than most of the DFW core.