Iceresistance wrote:CronkPSU wrote:i figured after that crazy 12z GFS, i would wait until the wacky Happy Hour GFS finished before saying anything
The 18z GFS has the same place as the 12z GFS, but MUCH weaker, for now...
18z's Nicaragua landfall is actually stronger than 12z (987 mb vs 997). In fact, for 12z 11/4, it has the same intensity as the (still bonkers) 06z GFS run, but the difference is in speed: 18z landfalls 6 hours from there, while 06z has 12-18 hours.
The crazy thing about 12z was that it lets the system hang around in NW Caribbean after reemerging to water where it bombs out, which isn't the case for 18z.
Regardless, the scenario on 18z still has potential to be a flooding disaster. FWIW, even though Hurricane Eta made landfall in Nicaragua, it "only" had 2 casualties and $178 million in monetary damage there. The impacts on Honduras (74 deaths, $5 billion) and Guatemala (53 deaths, $386 million) were much more severe, largely due to flooding.