ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2023103100, , BEST, 0, 157N, 663W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 045, SPAWNINVEST, al712023 to al972023

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972023.dat

[gatorcane]

No CONUS or Florida threat here. Central America should keep an eye on it. Hurricane season was over for Florida after Idalia as El Niño has kept things in check as expected. Rising air over the EPAC since mid-September and the westerlies over the Gulf and Florida squashed it.

[ElectricStorm]

Most guidance so far suggests a TS heading into CA and that is probably the most likely outcome. However if it does get going quicker and ends up turning north it could end up as a much more significant system, although that's less likely.

Can't ever trust the SW Caribbean though so it needs to be watched

[cycloneye]

[Weathertracker96]

No CONUS or Florida threat here. Central America should keep an eye on it. Hurricane season was over for Florida after Idalia as El Niño has kept things in check as expected. Rising air over the EPAC since mid-September and the westerlies over the Gulf and Florida squashed it.

It’s still best to watch this since the Invest was just created. This elnino year is not playing by the textbook. I remember posts stating that the season will be dead and look, we had 20 something storms. I also remember posts saying the gulf would be closed & we had Harold & Idalia. Since we have an invest now, it is best to keep an eye on it.

[mantis83]

No CONUS or Florida threat here. Central America should keep an eye on it. Hurricane season was over for Florida after Idalia as El Niño has kept things in check as expected. Rising air over the EPAC since mid-September and the westerlies over the Gulf and Florida squashed it.

agreed! florida force field too strong!

[cycloneye]

One factor in favor for this system will be the very warm sst's in the Caribbean Sea.

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/LWJ6sna.png

I see the westerly wind I don't think any model showed the presence of westerly wind this early.

[blp]

It's coming together. Agree with NHC going red. Fioater on top I even see some hints at rotation.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not going to be long until this one really gets cranking. Unfortunately does have some Eta/Iota vibes to it. Hopefully it craters itself inland before getting much more than a TS/minimal hurricane.

[Hurricane2022]

I have a very bad feeling about this one. If everything is right, this may reach C3 - C5 status before landfall. I hope Wxman57 is right about the future of 97L.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/LWJ6sna.png

I see the westerly wind I don't think any model showed the presence of westerly wind this early.

I think that data from the bouy was the culprit to tag it as invest earlier than expected.

[Category5Kaiju]

Uhh...

[cycloneye]

Here is some of the data from bouy 42059 that had west winds one hour ago.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... %20enlarge.

2023-10-30 09:10 pm NW 5.8 9.7 - - - - 29.88 - 81.5 - 78.4 - - -
2023-10-30 09:00 pm WNW 7.8 11.7 - - - - 29.87 +0.07 81.7 - 78.3 - - -
2023-10-30 08:50 pm WNW 7.8 11.7 3.6 8 5.7 E 29.87 - 82.0 - 79.0 - - -
2023-10-30 08:40 pm W 7.8 11.7 - - - - 29.85 - 82.4 - 78.8 - - -
2023-10-30 08:30 pm W 7.8 11.7 - - - - 29.84 - 82.2 - 78.8 - - -
2023-10-30 08:20 pm W 9.7 11.7 3.6 8 5.8 ESE 29.84 - 82.0 - 78.6 - - -
2023-10-30 08:10 pm WSW 9.7 11.7 3.6 - 5.8 ESE 29.83 - 81.7 - 78.1 - - -
2023-10-30 08:00 pm WSW 9.7 11.7 - - - - 29.82 +0.04 81.9 - 78.4 - - -
2023-10-30 07:50 pm WSW 7.8 11.7 3.9 8 5.9 E 29.83 - 81.7 - 78.6 - - -
2023-10-30 07:40 pm WSW 9.7 11.7 - - - - 29.82 - 81.5 - 78.8 - - -
2023-10-30 07:30 pm SW 9.7 11.7 - - - - 29.82 - 81.3 - 79.2 - - -
2023-10-30 07:10 pm SW 11.7 13.6 3.6 - 5.7 ENE 29.81 - 81.7 - 79.2 - - -
2023-10-30 07:00 pm SSW 11.7 13.6 - - - -

[zzzh]

The wind direction changed from SW to NW, I think the system is moving to the south?

[AutoPenalti]

Until the anticyclone is established on top and not to the west, this will not develop as quick.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: The wind direction changed from SW to NW, I think the system is moving to the south?

Moving west at 280 degrees.

INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1719178522210521169

[REDHurricane]

Looks like the actual LLC is forming north of the current best track data, I'm guessing it's somewhere around here (16.8ºN, 67.0ºW) possibly? If the TC develops north of expected then that would appear to favor a recurve track that either grazes or misses Central America compared to the solution where it moves due west into Nicaragua/Honduras... the next few hours will be interesting to watch