ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Caribbean Sea is boiling.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1719189327937221004

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If this gets it's act together quicker than expected, it could still very well brush CA then get picked up and pulled NE. I think some are a bit early writng this off so soon.

[Teban54]

[AtlanticWind]

I never sleep on Carribean systems in S Fla

Think this likely goes into Central America but too early
to say with any certainty.

[REDHurricane]

Shear appears to be letting up a bit in the past several hours as the upper level ridge shifts to the south and east, could be why we're seeing some increased convection in the area:

[cycloneye]

Is a little bit more north than the 15.8N position of the 06z best track.

[tolakram]

floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development during the next several
days while the system moves westward over the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development,
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions
of Central America towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2023103112, , BEST, 0, 159N, 677W, 25, 1008, DB

[REDHurricane]

All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.

[Blown Away]

Agree


12z 15.9/67.7... A bit S of the developing LLC IMO...

[Zonacane]

Way farther to the north than expected, makes some of those high end solutions more likely.

[SFLcane]

All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.

Is there an actual center?

[cycloneye]

All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.

Is there an actual center?

An ASCAT is need to see if there is one.

[Landy]

Highly doubt there is anything at the surface for the time being. Low level winds look predominantly south / southeasterly. Buoy in the area corroborates this.

[aspen]

All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.

Is there an actual center?

An ASCAT is need to see if there is one.

Which means ASCAT will miss every single time until this either dissipates or is eventually classified as a TC.

[USTropics]

Highly doubt there is anything at the surface for the time being. Low level winds look predominantly south / southeasterly. Buoy in the area corroborates this.

That's what I'm also seeing currently. There is some decent mid level rotation (albeit elongated) highlighted in pink below. However, you can see the low-level clouds are from the SE (highlighted in blue). What we need to look for is some sort of consistent westerly flow (look in the green area):





Main reason? We need more convergence at the surface to really get vertical motion established at the lower levels:

[blp]

The system has switched to build up the mid level today versus yesterday being more at the lower levels. Though it looks worse on satellite the structure is improving overall.

500MB


850MB

[cycloneye]

The system has switched to build up the mid level today versus yesterday being more at the lower levels. Though it looks worse on satellite the structure is improving overall.

500MB
https://i.ibb.co/CbCxgdR/ezgif-2-fb0b657cef.gif

850MB
https://i.ibb.co/PYyj6Tv/ezgif-2-b6d07d0255.gif

So far the LLC is moving to DR, unless a new one forms and aligns with the mid level one. Right now is nothing to see here theme.

[floridasun]

Remember this November so chance of ts and hurr are slimer harder get ts and hurr but time will tell