ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

[SFLcane]

Hmm..

[Teban54]

Hmm..

https://i.postimg.cc/KckCx3dm/IMG-7833.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/wTFXr00M/IMG-7835.jpg

Obviously it's just a few ensemble members, but this is exactly why people shouldn't be making definitive statements like "FL is safe" just yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Safe to say the Euro is, as usual, probably wrong about no development based on the NHC probabilities and current trends. So we can probably throw out that solution for now.

[SFLcane]

Safe to say the Euro is, as usual, probably wrong about no development based on the NHC probabilities and current trends. So we can probably throw out that solution for now.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1719179005931208975

[zzzh]

EC is indeed lost. It showed pure easterlies while buoy confirmed the presence of westerlies.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS initial is more south than the best track of 15.7N.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS initial is more south than the best track of 15.7N.

IMO, a developing LLC is near 16.7N.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane models are running now:
HWRF has a hurricane by hour 75 and a Cat 2 by hour 81 so far. Edit: Gets to 926mb
HMON weak until shortly before landfall where it blows up into a Cat 1 quickly
Both HAFS don't develop. Seems to be a thing for HAFS where the initial run for most storms this year doesn't show development

[kevin]

06z HMON has a tropical storm in 21 hours and a hurricane in 51 hours.

[kevin]

HAFS-A (995 mb, 48 kt) and HAFS-B (no development) are very bearish with a sloppy mess. But HWRF and HMON are very aggressive. HWRF gets this to a 939 mb, 110 kt before landfall in Nicaragua at 117 hours. MH at 108 hrs, H at 78 hrs and TS at 45 hrs. HMON is even faster with development as has a TS at 21 hrs, H at 51 hrs and a MH at 102 hrs (after a period of weakening due to shear). It landfalls with a pressure of 950 mb and winds of 115 kt.

[aspen]

The GFS has gradually been caving to the Euro/CMC/ICON solution of a broad disturbance with little to no development. I’ll be skeptical of significant development unless we see real-time trends suggesting otherwise.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

So far, is doing like Euro.

[cycloneye]

No wonder this thread is almost dead. 12Z GFS barely develops.

[aspen]

No wonder this thread is almost dead. 12Z GFS barely develops.

https://i.imgur.com/d2WgLF5.gif

Fully caved to the rest of the globals. We’ve seen this all year where the Euro sniffs out a solution that the GFS spends days eventually correcting towards. Earlier it was with the development of Franklin/Idalia/Lee, now it’s with the non-development of 97L.

[floridasun]

No wonder this thread is almost dead. 12Z GFS barely develops.

https://i.imgur.com/d2WgLF5.gif

On sat pic area look very weak

[ElectricStorm]

No wonder this thread is almost dead. 12Z GFS barely develops.

https://i.imgur.com/d2WgLF5.gif

Fully caved to the rest of the globals. We’ve seen this all year where the Euro sniffs out a solution that the GFS spends days eventually correcting towards. Earlier it was with the development of Franklin/Idalia/Lee, now it’s with the non-development of 97L.

GFS has been complete garbage ever since that "upgrade" a year or two ago. Almost every time it's shown something strong this year it's been wrong, and not just for the Atlantic either

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET has no TCG fwiw

[Zonacane]

Global models shouldn't be used verbatim for intensity forecasts.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro may get this right after all. The GFS yet again is showing weak and into CA as the Euro has consistently shown from the beginning. The GFS needs a big upgrade during the off-season to address its issues particularly the convective feedback problems it has in the Caribbean.