Very early thoughts on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

[CyclonicFury]

While the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has not officially ended yet, 97L is appearing as if it will not develop and models aren't showing anything after that in the near future. It is possible, though not certain yet, that Tammy was the last named storm of the season.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will likely fall just short of hyperactive status in terms of ACE (assuming we don't get a late hurricane that produces 11+ ACE), despite a strong El Nino in place. It definitely appears that the record-warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic/super +AMO had a significant effect on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, as most strong El Nino years in the past have failed to exceed ~60 ACE. It's unclear as if this +++AMO pattern will persist into 2024, but historically, the tropical Atlantic is often anomalously warmer the year after El Ninos (see 2005, 2010 and 2020 for examples of this), and climatology suggests it's likely this El Nino will dissipate by sometime next summer. We are nowhere close to the SPB yet, but a strong +AMO with cool neutral or La Nina in place is a scary thought, as climate models are already showing a potentially extremely favorable setup for 2024.

[DioBrando]

While the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has not officially ended yet, 97L is appearing as if it will not develop and models aren't showing anything after that in the near future. It is possible, though not certain yet, that Tammy was the last named storm of the season.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will likely fall just short of hyperactive status in terms of ACE (assuming we don't get a late hurricane that produces 11+ ACE), despite a strong El Nino in place. It definitely appears that the record-warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic/super +AMO had a significant effect on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, as most strong El Nino years in the past have failed to exceed ~60 ACE. It's unclear as if this +++AMO pattern will persist into 2024, but historically, the tropical Atlantic is often anomalously warmer the year after El Ninos (see 2005, 2010 and 2020 for examples of this), and climatology suggests it's likely this El Nino will dissipate by sometime next summer. We are nowhere close to the SPB yet, but a strong +AMO with cool neutral or La Nina in place is a scary thought, as climate models are already showing a potentially extremely favorable setup for 2024.

it'll be hell on earth.

[Category5Kaiju]

For this season to get 20/7/3 with a strong Nino (including a Category 5 hurricane), and with there being a high likelihood of this Nino weakening by next year, I'm fairly confident at this point in time that should nothing truly bizarre happen, a hyperactive season for 2024 is very much on the table (especially if waters remain warm or get even warmer). I think if anything, we might exhaust the naming list and also end up with way more land threats than this year.

Who knows, maybe 2023 was just the warning shot? Stay tuned...

[tolakram]

2024 will be overhyped to the extreme, and when it ends up normal people will talk about how the world has changed. Or something along those lines.

[Teban54]

Not exactly related to the thread (and at the risk of turning this into a 2023 reflection thread), one thing I've been thinking is how much randomness there is in any hurricane season.

The 2023 season would have likely been at hyperactive ACE right now if Lee wasn't disrupted by persistent shear almost immediately after its Cat 5 peak, Nigel became a more compact major hurricane like NHC initially forecasted, or either Philippe or pre-recurve Tammy faced better conditions that models initially showed. On the other hand, it could have been seen as much less active if the shear kicked in 24 hours earlier for Lee and prevented it from ever taking off, or Idalia had a slight variation in track that made it stuck over land instead of the Yucatan Channel.

Perhaps one of the biggest factors that weren't expected before the season was the complete lack of a Bermuda high, partly due to the El Nino. That's why storms like Margot and Nigel were sent on a recurve so quickly - they may have been even more long-tracking and perhaps found better conditions if they tracked further west. In fact, I think Lee occurred during a very brief period of +NAO. If that wasn't the case, the season could have potential to generate even more ACE, not to mention being far more damaging.

So it's definitely way too early to speculate about the 2024 season at this point, as we have little idea about ENSO, AMO, etc. But if the most likely patterns materialize (-ENSO or at least not as positive as this year, MDR SSTs continue to be extreme), it can paint a scary picture with just a marginally stronger Bermuda high.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Here's the ace for all post el nino Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995:

1995: 227
1998: 182
2003: 177
2005: 250
2007: 74
2010: 165
2016: 141
2019: 132

Average: 169

Average subtracting 2007: 182

The Atlantic has typically performed very well in years just after an el nino with one exception. At this point, there's no real reason not to expect another very active season.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's the ace for all post el nino Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995:

1995: 227
1998: 182
2003: 177
2005: 250
2007: 74
2010: 165
2016: 141
2019: 132

Average: 169

Average subtracting 2007: 182

The Atlantic has typically performed very well in years just after an el nino with one exception. At this point, there's no real reason not to expect another very active season.

2007 was a strange year. It was a La Nina year, but the Atlantic resembled more of a pre-1995 period given how anomalously cool the basin was overall. Very Nina-like with two Caribbean Category 5 cruiser hurricanes, but aside from that very 2013-like arguably.

[kevin]

Making predictions this early on is very difficult. But based on previous post-Nino seasons in recent history (see earlier in this topic) I'm definitely expecting an above-average and potentially hyperactive season.

[aspen]

I agree with tolakram, I think 2024 will be pretty overhyped, mainly because there’s no guarantee we’ll see a switch away from +ENSO. This could be just a fairly strong single-year Nino, or this could be the start of a multi-year +ENSO phase like 2014-16. If the latter, I’d expect a significantly less active season. There’s also no guarantee the super +AMO will persist into next year as well.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I agree with tolakram, I think 2024 will be pretty overhyped, mainly because there’s no guarantee we’ll see a switch away from +ENSO. This could be just a fairly strong single-year Nino, or this could be the start of a multi-year +ENSO phase like 2014-16. If the latter, I’d expect a significantly less active season. There’s also no guarantee the super +AMO will persist into next year as well.

I agree that 2024 could be overhyped, but I want to point out that strong el ninos don't stick around. Since 1972, the only strong/super el nino that failed to transition to a la nina was the 1991-1992 event, and even that one briefly transitioned to cool neutral. I think it's reasonable to assume that we're probably not going to see an el nino for 2024. What happens to the Atlantic is more up in the air.

[SFLcane]

I will leave this right here. For the Conus and islands better hope this doesnt come to pass.

[SFLcane]

While the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has not officially ended yet, 97L is appearing as if it will not develop and models aren't showing anything after that in the near future. It is possible, though not certain yet, that Tammy was the last named storm of the season.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will likely fall just short of hyperactive status in terms of ACE (assuming we don't get a late hurricane that produces 11+ ACE), despite a strong El Nino in place. It definitely appears that the record-warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic/super +AMO had a significant effect on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, as most strong El Nino years in the past have failed to exceed ~60 ACE. It's unclear as if this +++AMO pattern will persist into 2024, but historically, the tropical Atlantic is often anomalously warmer the year after El Ninos (see 2005, 2010 and 2020 for examples of this), and climatology suggests it's likely this El Nino will dissipate by sometime next summer. We are nowhere close to the SPB yet, but a strong +AMO with cool neutral or La Nina in place is a scary thought, as climate models are already showing a potentially extremely favorable setup for 2024.

Usually the +ENSO winters have -NAO so the Atlantic should remain warm.

[al78]

I agree with tolakram, I think 2024 will be pretty overhyped, mainly because there’s no guarantee we’ll see a switch away from +ENSO. This could be just a fairly strong single-year Nino, or this could be the start of a multi-year +ENSO phase like 2014-16. If the latter, I’d expect a significantly less active season. There’s also no guarantee the super +AMO will persist into next year as well.

I agree that 2024 could be overhyped, but I want to point out that strong el ninos don't stick around. Since 1972, the only strong/super el nino that failed to transition to a la nina was the 1991-1992 event, and even that one briefly transitioned to cool neutral. I think it's reasonable to assume that we're probably not going to see an el nino for 2024. What happens to the Atlantic is more up in the air.

The model consensus on the IRI website is for El Nino to peak next month then slowly decrease to neutral by spring which is the kind of classic scenario.

[al78]

Here's the ace for all post el nino Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995:

1995: 227
1998: 182
2003: 177
2005: 250
2007: 74
2010: 165
2016: 141
2019: 132

Average: 169

Average subtracting 2007: 182

The Atlantic has typically performed very well in years just after an el nino with one exception. At this point, there's no real reason not to expect another very active season.

I think the odds of a hyperactive season next year will depend to a degree on whether a La Nina develops, which happened in some of the past El Nino years and undoubtedly contributed to very active post El Nino hurricane seasons.

[ElectricStorm]

I can already see this being hyped to oblivion and then whenever we end up with a "regular" above-average season but not hyperactive, people will call it the biggest bust ever

But in all seriousness we have no idea at this range, there's more factors than just ENSO. 2022 and 2023 are perfect examples of that. So I think it's best to just wait and see until we get way closer to the season before we set unrealistic expectations.

[AnnularCane]

Maybe logically it's too early to speculate. Deep down we probably all know that. But when has that ever really stopped anyone? Besides, it makes for an interesting topic.

[SFLcane]

Yikes..

[cycloneye]

Already as some mentioned, 2024 may be hyped a lot and maybe overhyped. The social media world is already buzzing.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1720495337914183896




 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1720497428078506018




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1720499123898519578

[Teban54]

Already as some mentioned, 2024 may be hyped a lot and maybe overhyped. The social media world is already buzzing.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1720495337914183896

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1720497428078506018

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1720499123898519578

The caveat that is the Bermuda high:
 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1720506036036235460



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1720499123898519578



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1720499492732952983

[zal0phus]

While I'd love for List 4 to get some more exposure (it's my favorite list) and go through all the names, and I think the setup looks frighteningly favorable, I can't shake the suspicion that next season will be a dud. Undoubtedly great for the Atlantic, but an unrivaled bore for the board