Texas Fall 2023

[Iceresistance]

It was 95 in Hollis Oklahoma today. Where is that cold front

Later today

[Ntxw]

Tomorrow through Saturday is actually trending cooler than thought. Where the front passes, will fall into the 50s, Friday and Saturday may not get much above 50. Adjust those numbers a little the further south you are. This is coming from the NAM.

[WacoWx]

Just noticed the same thing looking at the forecast. Friday tee time at 8a is gonna be rough.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z nam trying to bump up the rain totals in the se half of dfw. Hrrr not as aggressive. Either way, looking forward to a broad brushing of rain across the area

[Cpv17]

The Euro isn’t backing down on some hefty rains across southeast TX. Huge difference compared to the GFS, which doesn’t even agree with its own ensemble. Think I’m gonna have to side with the Euro on this one.

[Yukon Cornelius]

92 currently

[bubba hotep]

The Euro isn’t backing down on some hefty rains across southeast TX. Huge difference compared to the GFS, which doesn’t even agree with its own ensemble. Think I’m gonna have to side with the Euro on this one.

Euro shows 3" for portions of DFW over the next week and the GFS shows less than an inch

[Brent]

92 currently

Wow

We were 3 degrees off the all time November high but we had fropa now

[gpsnowman]

92 currently

Wow

We were 3 degrees off the all time November high but we had fropa now

Thinking midnight-ish for fropa here. Might chill outdoors and wait for the wind shift while the fam sleeps.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

Pattern change on the way…toward a colder and wetter period.

Surface cold front is along a line from north of Waco to near Brady and then southwest to near Del Rio. Front will reach the College Station (Brazos Valley) area midday, metro Houston area early to mid evening and off the coast late evening. Moisture is increasing this morning ahead of the boundary and radar is starting to show a few showers developing across the western portions of the region from Navasota to Sealy to Wharton. Expect activity to slowly increase going into the midday hours with the arrival of enhanced lift with the front. High resolution guidance has been suggesting the potential for a line of heavier rainfall and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the corridor from Columbus to Waller to Conroe late this afternoon and evening and then this activity slowly progresses southeast toward the coast overnight.

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected with isolated totals upwards of 3-4 inches. Expect the highest amounts south of I-10 where the front begins to slow, and moisture profiles are greatest.

Friday-Weekend:
Front will stall over the northwest Gulf late Friday and remain stationary into the weekend. A coastal trough begins to form off the lower TX coast early Saturday in association with an incoming upper level disturbance over northern MX. These features will help to lift warm southerly and southwesterly winds aloft over the top of the cool northerly winds at the surface. This creates an “overrunning” situation where the warm air is gradually lifted over the denser surface cold air. Expect widespread clouds and periods of light rain, showers, and drizzle for much of Saturday. High resolution guidance depicts a decent disturbance moving across the area early Saturday morning into the midday hours with widespread rainfall expanding from southwest to northeast in the morning hours. Thinking this will be more of a uniform stratiform rainfall versus convective with hourly totals generally less than .25 of an inch.

Will likely see some sort of break late Saturday into Sunday, but the eventual passage of the northern MX upper level trough and the surface trough off the lower TX coast will occur by Monday into Tuesday. GFS keeps the coastal system further offshore along with most of the rainfall, but the CMC and ECWMF are further north and closer to the upper TX coast with a very wet Monday in their solutions. Best course of action at the moment is to split the differences and yield widespread rains on Monday with the heaviest activity near the coast and south of I-10. Should the GFS trend toward the other guidance…rainfall amounts Monday will likely need to be raised with heavy rainfall more probable.

Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall generally will come in 3 periods over the next 5 days tonight-midday Friday, early to midday Saturday, and Monday with drizzle and spotty light rains in between these more widespread and consistent periods. Each bout of rainfall will have the potential to produce 1-2 inches with the greatest accumulations south of I-10. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are likely with isolated amounts upwards of 5 inches through the period.

Grounds are generally dry as October rainfall for most of the area was below average, so think much of what is forecasted will be handled. Additionally with the expected slower rainfall rates this will give the rainfall an opportunity to settle into the soil instead of converting to run-off.

Temperatures today in the mid 80’s will fall into the 50’s/60’s tonight and then remain at those levels through Monday with clouds, rain, and northerly winds. Temperatures on Saturday may not reach 60 for much of the area. A slow warming trend into the middle of next week as rainfall moves east.

Forecasted Rainfall (Next 5 Days):



Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[CaptinCrunch]

While rainfall totals have been relatively light through the
morning, embedded thunderstorms and pockets of heavier rainfall
will result in higher rainfall rates over the next several hours
for areas east of I-35. With coverage expected to peak near 100%
this afternoon and evening, locations east of I-35 will see
rainfall totals near 1-2" on average, with isolated amounts
between 2-3". West of I-35, intermittent light to moderate rain
will continue into the overnight hours, though rainfall rates will
remain relatively light and coverage won`t be 100%. This will
keep rainfall totals mostly between 0.25-0.75" across these
locations for the duration of the event.

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will shift into
East/Southeast Texas overnight and into Friday morning, though a
few showers may linger across portions of Central Texas.
Otherwise, cloudy conditions will prevail for most of the region
on Friday along with much cooler temperatures. High temperatures
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with a steady northeast breeze
near 10-15 mph.

[cstrunk]

The rain started around 3:30 pm yesterday and was pretty constant light/moderate rain through the overnight. I've had 1.47" so far, not expecting much more besides some sprinkles.

[bubba hotep]

No signs of a big cold blast but not really seeing signs of another big heat spike either. Things look pretty seasonal over the next two weeks with temps roller coastering around normal with frequent fronts and rain chances.

[weatherdude1108]

We had constant light to moderate (sometimes heavier moderate) rain yesterday and early this morning at my pad. We got over 1" out of it, with some spilloever into the overflow part of the gauge. I'll have to measure the overflow later. But at least 1" of soaking rain.

[Ntxw]

No signs of a big cold blast but not really seeing signs of another big heat spike either. Things look pretty seasonal over the next two weeks with temps roller coastering around normal with frequent fronts and rain chances.

I'm intrigued by the southern corridor storms. Very Nino-like.

[Itryatgolf]

No signs of a big cold blast but not really seeing signs of another big heat spike either. Things look pretty seasonal over the next two weeks with temps roller coastering around normal with frequent fronts and rain chances.

I'm intrigued by the southern corridor storms. Very Nino-like.

If this niño follows your typical pattern, then mid Jan on would be our best opportunity at winter weather. I thought with the -AAM atmosphere that we would have a chance in December, but not real sure. Sometimes niña like atmospheres can have cold shots in December like your Aleutian ridge going poleward. Just hoping we have some opportunity

[Ntxw]

No signs of a big cold blast but not really seeing signs of another big heat spike either. Things look pretty seasonal over the next two weeks with temps roller coastering around normal with frequent fronts and rain chances.

I'm intrigued by the southern corridor storms. Very Nino-like.

If this niño follows your typical pattern, then mid Jan on would be our best opportunity at winter weather. I thought with the -AAM atmosphere that we would have a chance in December, but not real sure. Sometimes niña like atmospheres can have cold shots in December like your Aleutian ridge going poleward. Just hoping we have some opportunity

Southwest and west probably benefits first. -PDO.

[Iceresistance]

Cold Shot by Thanksgiving?


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/S8JOE.png

[jasons2k]

Another update from Jeff:

If you like this morning you are going to like the next several days.

Weak surface front has moved to near the coast this morning and is slowing down and will stall over the northwest Gulf today. Plentiful moisture is being lifted up and over the surface front and when combined with jet stream disturbances aloft moving out of Mexico the end result will be periods of showers, light rain, and drizzle into early next week.

High resolution guidance shows the next upper air disturbance approaching the region from the southwest late this afternoon with showers becoming widespread…especially south of HWY 105. Given the lack of convective activity, rainfall rates will be on the lower side and average .10-.25 of an inch an hour…exactly what you need when you are trying to come out of a drought. Could be a few heavier showers at times, especially south of I-10 closer to the surface front. Rainfall has been widespread thus far with all of the area seeing at least some rain…highest totals yesterday were in a corridor from Spring to Jersey Village and then southward along the west Beltway where 1-2.5 inches of rain fell. Similar totals occurred over portions of southern Jackson into Wharton Counties.

Weekend:
Coastal trough will form on the frontal boundary along the lower and middle Texas coast as upper level energy continues to flow across the region from the southwest. This trough and eventually low will continue to produce a wet weather pattern across the region on Saturday. May see a bit of a break on Sunday, especially north of HWY 105, but will keep high rain chances going through the entire weekend with the highest totals south of I-10.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be likely for areas south of I-10 with amounts of .50-1.0 inch north of I-10.

With rainfall rates likely to be light to at times moderate through the weekend, do not think there will be any significant flooding concerns.

Early Next Week:
Coastal low will deepen as a strong upper level trough approaches from northern Mexico. Global models are coming into better agreement that a fairly decent storm system is going to form off the middle Texas coast and move northeast near or just offshore of the upper Texas coast on Monday. Will start trending toward a very wet and stormy Monday with the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. Additionally, as the surface low intensifies, winds will increase out of the northeast, and this will quickly build seas and possible some coastal flooding.

Additional rainfall on Monday of 1-3 inches is starting to look likely with isolated higher totals. Will need to watch this period in the coming days for those higher totals as grounds slowly saturate over the area.

Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall totals today through the weekend will average 1-3 inches over the southern part of the area and .50-1.0 north of HWY 105. Totals early next week of 1-3 inches additional will be possible. Rainfall over the weekend should be able to be handled as rates will be on the lower end, but will have to watch Monday with any heavier rainfall rates potential on top of increasingly saturated grounds.

Temperatures will remain in the 50’s and 60’s through the entire period with clouds, rainfall, and northerly winds in place.


Forecasted Rainfall (Next 5 Days):


Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[JayDT]

Cold Shot by Thanksgiving?

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/S8JOE.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/S8JOE.png

I’m definitely hoping for a cold Thanksgiving