#36 Postby ThunderForce » Sat Nov 11, 2023 6:26 am
00z ICON seems to have dropped significant development and both 00z Euro and CMC are still not really showing much, which leaves 00z/06z GFS as the only operational model really developing this at the moment. In turn, this means GFS is the only one really showing it move NE through the Caribbean and into the Atlantic as a tropical storm/hurricane, with the other three models having the weaker low getting left behind by the trough and meandering in the southwestern Caribbean through their periods. To summarize the four models so far (to the best of my ability):
00z and 06z GFS develop it into a tropical storm/hurricane that moves northeast into the northwest/northern Caribbean and out into the Atlantic. 06z appears to be a bit weaker pressure-wise at first than 00z. 06z has it at 994 mb on 06z Friday the 17th, while 00z has it at 991 mb at the same time.
00z Euro doesn't develop it much while the trough is moving out. It does seem to try developing it afterward around hour 222 according to the "500 mb Geopotential Height, Cyclonic Vorticity, and Wind" map since the vorticity strengthens there into a red color, but it stops afterward. The low proceeds to meander in the southwestern Caribbean for the rest of the forecast period, with what appears to be slow northwest movement of the low beginning near the end.
00z CMC doesn't appear to develop it much, if at all. It does have vorticity at around hour 210 that moves into Nicaragua, but that appears to suddenly appear near Panama and doesn't appear to be related to the vorticity that the NHC is anticipating.
00z ICON seems to meander through the SW Caribbean as either a tropical low or depression throughout its period with little development.
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