
Possible development in the SW Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)
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- ThunderForce
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
12z ECENS (Euro Ensembles):


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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
cycloneye wrote:Well, 12z operational Euro turns very bullish.Has a solid TS but track is the contrary from GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/Hz23FaF.gif
That's quite the extratropical nuke it's sending off towards the NE
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- Blown Away
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Last edited by Blown Away on Sat Nov 11, 2023 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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- cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fb7Gq744/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh120-240.gif [/url]
12z Euro has a hurricane zig zagging in the Caribbean…
Posted it at the end of page 2.

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- cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
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- cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Up to 40%.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late next week as the system
drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Kelly
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late next week as the system
drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Kelly
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
They are over 24 hours behind 57. NHC is on the backfoot.cycloneye wrote:Up to 40%.Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late next week as the system
drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Kelly
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- Blown Away
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
I'm not wishing it on you Luis, but it's looking more likely yall are gonna get some rain bro....hope thats all...I also want to wish you, your family, and everyone a great Thanksgiving, and holiday season! Yall be well my friend!....
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- wxman57
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
18Z GFS is backing off on the hurricane prediction. Slower to develop and weaker.
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of the week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late this week while the
system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of the week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late this week while the
system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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- cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Euro still wants a hurricane from this, while the GFS now barely shows a organized TC
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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- ThunderForce
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Weird that the GFS and Euro have essentially flip-flopped in intensity.
Tracks are also pretty different from each other. GFS wants to take it northeast as a sloppy tropical storm(?) while Euro wants to take it northwest as a hurricane.
Tracks are also pretty different from each other. GFS wants to take it northeast as a sloppy tropical storm(?) while Euro wants to take it northwest as a hurricane.
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- wxman57
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
The GFS solution finally looks reasonable. Maybe a TD or very weak, sheared TS crossing the DR next Friday. Not it's the Euro that doesn't look right. It develops a hurricane as it moves into the high shear region of the NW Caribbean. That seems unlikely. I'm still thinking 60-70% chance of a TD or weak TS by Thursday.
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Well...it seems that 2023 has already shown everything it had to show us...Please wake me up only in August (or July) 2024!!!
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Hurricane2022 wrote:Well...it seems that 2023 has already shown everything it had to show us...Please wake me up only in August (or July) 2024!!!
Not quite. It's really important we bear in mind that the main hazard with tropical cyclones isn't their wind.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/4HWdTWIbn4Y[/youtube]
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- cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
12z Euro caved to GFS on the track.


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Re: Possible development in the SW Caribbean
So, is the GFS the favored model with this system?
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