Texas Fall 2023

[CaptinCrunch]

Here is a old indicater of the coming Winter (Woolly Bear Caterpillars) The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.

I can't tell you how many of these I have over the past 2 weeks, probably close to a 100 by now which is way more than normal. I see these lage black fuzzy caterpillars crossing the roads, in the yard and on the trees,
most have been almost solid black thick with fuzz and very active. So will this be a colder than normal Winter? we shall see my friends.

I hate the be the buzzkill here, but this doesn’t quite hold up. The caterpillar’s coat is a reflection of the previous growing season, not the season to come. It could also potentially be a different variety of the caterpillar that is just naturally black colored. I know, I must be real fun at parties

More info here:
https://www.weather.gov/arx/woollybear#:~:text=The%20longer%20the%20woolly%20bear's,will%20be%20coldest%20or%20hardest.

On side note Oak trees with heavy acorn drops are supposed to be a sign of a cold winter to come.

Love this time of year

[bubba hotep]

Thanksgiving Day and Friday look to have the most risk for extreme cold in Texas, with some ensemble members showing sub-freezing highs as a potential in DFW. As Ntxw has pointed out, there is broad support across the ensembles for an Alaskan Ridge. The differences come about in how that cold is dislodged into the Lower 48 and how cold it is. There are some very cold clusters for Texas, but also some clusters that keep Texas relatively mild with a quick rebound as the cold is shunted more eastward.

[Gotwood]

Thanksgiving Day and Friday look to have the most risk for extreme cold in Texas, with some ensemble members showing sub-freezing highs as a potential in DFW. As Ntxw has pointed out, there is broad support across the ensembles for an Alaskan Ridge. The differences come about in how that cold is dislodged into the Lower 48 and how cold it is. There are some very cold clusters for Texas, but also some clusters that keep Texas relatively mild with a quick rebound as the cold is shunted more eastward.

CMC looking pretty cold but no moisture to work with.

[Brent]

Thanksgiving Day and Friday look to have the most risk for extreme cold in Texas, with some ensemble members showing sub-freezing highs as a potential in DFW. As Ntxw has pointed out, there is broad support across the ensembles for an Alaskan Ridge. The differences come about in how that cold is dislodged into the Lower 48 and how cold it is. There are some very cold clusters for Texas, but also some clusters that keep Texas relatively mild with a quick rebound as the cold is shunted more eastward.

Yeah I noticed there was more of a +PNA showing up earlier on the op Euro which would favor east of us but nobody east of here is buying it from what I read earlier

[tajmahal]

Some ensemble mean temperature forecasts for Thanksgiving Day:

.GEFS......EPS......GEPS
58–38...51–32...48–31...Amarillo
62–49...62–44...56–40...Austin Camp Mabry
72–63...71–54...69–56...Brownsville
33–22...33–22...30–19...Casper
58–46...58–42...52–39...Dallas
42–23...42–22...42–22...Denver
64–46...59–37...51–28...El Paso
67–56...64–47...60–44...Houston
53–40...50–36...48–32...Tulsa
B18–B21...B31–B36...B29–B32...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia
53–37...49–33...45–31...Woodward
19–11...11–05...03–01...Yellowknife, Yukon, Canada

[Yukon Cornelius]

Here is a old indicater of the coming Winter (Woolly Bear Caterpillars) The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.

I can't tell you how many of these I have over the past 2 weeks, probably close to a 100 by now which is way more than normal. I see these lage black fuzzy caterpillars crossing the roads, in the yard and on the trees,
most have been almost solid black thick with fuzz and very active. So will this be a colder than normal Winter? we shall see my friends.

I hate the be the buzzkill here, but this doesn’t quite hold up. The caterpillar’s coat is a reflection of the previous growing season, not the season to come. It could also potentially be a different variety of the caterpillar that is just naturally black colored. I know, I must be real fun at parties

More info here:
https://www.weather.gov/arx/woollybear#:~:text=The%20longer%20the%20woolly%20bear's,will%20be%20coldest%20or%20hardest.

On side note Oak trees with heavy acorn drops are supposed to be a sign of a cold winter to come.

Love this time of year

Mine are loaded this year. Also, thicker pine tree foliage, early arrival of crickets, bushy squirrel tails among numerous others.

[weatherdude1108]

I hate the be the buzzkill here, but this doesn’t quite hold up. The caterpillar’s coat is a reflection of the previous growing season, not the season to come. It could also potentially be a different variety of the caterpillar that is just naturally black colored. I know, I must be real fun at parties

More info here:
https://www.weather.gov/arx/woollybear#:~:text=The%20longer%20the%20woolly%20bear's,will%20be%20coldest%20or%20hardest.

On side note Oak trees with heavy acorn drops are supposed to be a sign of a cold winter to come.

Love this time of year

Mine are loaded this year. Also, thicker pine tree foliage, early arrival of crickets, bushy squirrel tails among numerous others.

I haven't had many acorn drops this year. Last year on the other hand, it was literally "hailing" acorns in my backyard non-stop for a week or so straight! They were coming from my neighbor's Post Oak/Blackjack Oak(?) trees, not the Live Oaks. I had never seen acorns drop from those trees since we moved there in 2006. After that, we had 14-degree temps in December right before Christmas and the February ice storm.

So who knows what portends this year(?). Last Spring, little saplings sprouted up all over the yard in the beds, especially where they accumulated. Too many for the squirrels to eat I guess.lol Those saplings are tough to uproot!

There was a news report I saw not too long ago about oak trees, and how they sometimes overproduce acorns as a survivial mechanism, so the animals literally can't eat them all, which leaves some acorns not eaten a greater chance to survive.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS, of note, the EPS has a few members showing something similar during this time

[Stratton23]

Now that would be awesome! Too bad its long range though

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS, of note, the EPS has a few members showing something similar during this time

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023111412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_51.png

Entire run for this (not hotlinked)


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRLNL.gif

[JayDT]

12z GFS, of note, the EPS has a few members showing something similar during this time

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023111412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_51.png

It would be so great if that verified I’m ready for some good winter weather

[Ntxw]

Anchorage is approaching snowiest November on record for them.

[Brent]

Anchorage is approaching snowiest November on record for them.

Yeah I was looking at the other years for that and most of them sucked here of course :spam:

I literally have no clue what to expect here this winter... There are some of the best and worst years for snow on the analogs...

[Stratton23]

GFS has trended colder, looks like it brings in a 2nd system that helps to really drag down the arctic air from canada into texas

[bubba hotep]

Ensembles have moderated on the potential cold around Thanksgiving and have started to dry out as well. Hopefully, this isn't a winter long trend. I really thought we would start seeing some bowling balls coming out of the SW and really soaking the state by this point.

[WacoWx]

If I remember correctly, last year was unseasonably warm and dry for Alaska for the entire winter. Meanwhile the Sierra Nevada was just getting absolutely dumped on with record breaking snow. I hope that this was a coincidence, but I am pretty negative with the moisture outlook/pattern at the moment.

[starsfan65]

Ensembles have moderated on the potential cold around Thanksgiving and have started to dry out as well. Hopefully, this isn't a winter long trend. I really thought we would start seeing some bowling balls coming out of the SW and really soaking the state by this point.

What do you mean?

[Cpv17]

Ensembles have moderated on the potential cold around Thanksgiving and have started to dry out as well. Hopefully, this isn't a winter long trend. I really thought we would start seeing some bowling balls coming out of the SW and really soaking the state by this point.

What do you mean?

What this basically means is that more than likely, no exciting weather is coming anytime soon.

[starsfan65]

Ensembles have moderated on the potential cold around Thanksgiving and have started to dry out as well. Hopefully, this isn't a winter long trend. I really thought we would start seeing some bowling balls coming out of the SW and really soaking the state by this point.

What do you mean?

What this basically means is that more than likely, no exciting weather is coming anytime soon.

What about temps?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Fall cancel