ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023111518, , BEST, 0, 117N, 811W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 046, SPAWNINVEST, al722023 to al982023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982023.dat

Thread at Talking TRopics forum that was the topic for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123857

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Should be the last chance at development this season I would think. Most models outside of the GFS keep it very weak. Highly sheared TD/minimal TS at the most here but most likely no development.

[LarryWx]

Should be the last chance at development this season I would think. Most models outside of the GFS keep it very weak. Highly sheared TD/minimal TS at the most here but most likely no development.

The normally conservative UKMET is a major exception as it has a 68 knot cat 1 H (978 mb) near and past Bermuda as was posted in the models thread. Is it on crack? Maybe it is.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3054520

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system over the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system
moves northeastward across the western and central part of the
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.

1. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater
Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti,
the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023111600, , BEST, 0, 124N, 815W, 30, 1007, DB

[Hurricane2022]

AL, 98, 2023111600, , BEST, 0, 124N, 815W, 30, 1007, DB

https://i.imgur.com/h5heu8q.gif

Well...looks that we are finally experiencing what will possibly be the last tropical storm of the season. After predicting a modest hurricane for a little while...models and their ensembles have been very calm about this system for a few days now. The way 2023 has gone so far and will continue to go...I still wouldn't be extremely surprised or shocked by a greater development than expected from this system...even if the chances of that happening are (almost) 0%

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the west-central Caribbean Sea have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical
depression could form over the next day or two while the low moves
northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system this afternoon.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests
in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Nimbus]

No rain for Florida and November systems tracking over Cuba east of Havana are often boring.

[TheEuropean]

No rain for Florida and November systems tracking over Cuba east of Havana are often boring.

Not for people there.

In my eyes No tropical system is boring.

[Jr0d]

This may not get grabbed by the front off of Florida as the CMC suggests, this will certainly make it much less boring with possible Florida Keys and South Florida impacts in a few days.. though likely minimal.

If it misses the front connection, high pressure fills in pushing it west for a few days before the next front pulls it north and absorbs it. If this happen the Cuban and possibly Jamaican impact may be not be minimal.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Gale forecast for Bermuda this weekend. Could be TS with just a tiny change in track.

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023111612, , BEST, 0, 140N, 815W, 30, 1005, DB

[Jr0d]

Gale forecast for Bermuda this weekend. Could be TS with just a tiny change in track.

Is this from the area off of South Florida or the Caribbean?

Tough to say, I give this system at least a 50/50.of not get getting pulled north out of the Caribbean like the CMC is showing. Ensembles are split also with the majority going north...

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like an LLC around ~16.5/79.5? I wouldn't be shocked to see a depression or maybe a minimum tropical storm force in the next couple of days.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at satellite, this is improving pretty quickly. I wasn't very bullish on it yesterday, but its actually got some convection and spin today. Just depends on how long it takes before it is pulled north over the islands. Not much shear but a whole lot of ventilation opportunities

[floridasun]

Look like Bermuda may get blast from two systems one from none tropical low and 98l as both move ne

[cycloneye]

West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low
pressure area over the west-central Caribbean Sea remains broad,
but the system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the east of the center of circulation.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica,
Haiti, and eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is en route to investigate the system.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains which would likely result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Greater Antilles, particularly over Jamaica and
Hispaniola, through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba,
Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Tropical storm watches could be required for some of
these areas as early as this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[REDHurricane]

Structure has organized pretty quickly in the last ~12 hours; if the shear environment continues to improve I think this could develop into a TD or even Vince within the next day or so -- probably won't have enough time to intensify into anything more than a high-end TS though before it gets sucked up into the messy frontal tomfoolery happening to its north (emphasis on "probably" since anything is possible in the tropics, as we've learned from recent events)


925mb vort --------------------------------------- 700mb vort --------------------------------------- 500mb vort