Texas Fall 2023

[Stratton23]

I like that 18z GFS run!

[Iceresistance]

I like that 18z GFS run!

And that CPC is showing it too!


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRNGm.png

[Cpv17]

I like that 18z GFS run!

Meh, the 540 line doesn’t really get very far south but I guess what do you expect since it’s only November.

[starsfan65]

I like that 18z GFS run!

Meh, the 540 line doesn’t really get very far south but I guess what do you expect since it’s only November.

It is going to happen in Late November.

[Cpv17]

For an ensemble, there’s a pretty strong signal for cold this far out right after Thanksgiving on the GEFS and it’s aimed right at Texas pretty much.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 yup, and some of the GEFS members are showing that we may have a system trying to move in at the same time, interesting days ahead

[Brent]

Tulsa starting to hint at it and that's with their forecast high of only a chilly 50 on Thanksgiving which is definitely on the colder side from what I've seen

Behind this
late next week system...latest model solutions are trying to
indicate an additional push of colder air into the region during
the Holiday weekend. Will just have to wait and see how this plays
out.

TWC showing more than one window for snow here now

[dpep4]

To heck with cold weather, give me a continuation of these near perfect 70's and upper 60's for highs here in DFW until Jan. 2, then it can get winter cold. Hopefully next week's unfortunate cool down will be short-lived.

[Ralph's Weather]

Today is the 9th anniversary of the Typhoon Nuri induced November snow and Arctic cold outbreak. In Lindale we got light snow and temps bottomed out at 17 on the 18th. Easy to remember because my oldest was born that day.

[cstrunk]

Cold weather??

Slight risk of severe storms on Monday in East Texas.

[Stratton23]

Yeah the global models are having significant trouble seeing this cold air mass, happens every time, ensembles are definitely colder than the op runs, albeit the cold blast only sticks around for 2-3 days, the PNA is still giving the models fits, so don’t exepct agreement anytime soon

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a super soaker for Texas in the long-range

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS has a super soaker for Texas in the long-range

That's been a common theme, but things keep trending positive tilt and progressive as we get closer to potential rain events.

[Brent]

12z GFS has a super soaker for Texas in the long-range

That's been a common theme, but things keep trending positive tilt and progressive as we get closer to potential rain events.

Everything looks better in the long range so far

[JayDT]

So much for the high being 72 today

[Stratton23]

Interesting run of the euro!

[bubba hotep]

Interesting run of the euro!

Dream setup. Cold air already in place with a lot of energy out West.

[HockeyTx82]

Interesting run of the euro!

Dream setup. Cold air already in place with a lot of energy out West.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111712/ec-fast_T850a_namer_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111712/ec-fast_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

I want to believe......

[Stratton23]

CPC has a slight risk for hazardous temperatures for the deep south just after thanksgiving, seems like they may be buying into the euro

[Cpv17]

The CPC forecast looks pretty good overall. Normal to below normal temps for the next 4 weeks with normal to above normal rainfall.