Texas Fall 2023

[Ntxw]

Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving!

In the world of weather, what's happening is transpiring with that same line thus far, severe cold is not a staple of El Nino. November will likely finish somewhere in the 0F to 1F in the South and 1F to 2F in the North. The next weather phenom is the -NAO. Cold shots will likely favor the east with a more mountain west +PNA. What we can hope for is an active storm track to perhaps pull one of the troughs back with a strong ULL to give us a December dynamics wintry wx. Isn't yet on the horizon.

The positive news is that we will be entering a period of -AO as well. During El Nino, if you can get the strong STJ, that's usually index you want.

[tajmahal]

The ECMWF (especially) and GFS models are predicting a "Canadian warming" of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December. That would flood North America with mild air from the Pacific Ocean and cause anomalous warmth.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

[starsfan65]

The ECMWF (especially) and GFS models are predicting a "Canadian warming" of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December. That would flood North America with mild air from the Pacific Ocean and cause anomalous warmth.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

warm weather?

[HockeyTx82]

The ECMWF (especially) and GFS models are predicting a "Canadian warming" of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December. That would flood North America with mild air from the Pacific Ocean and cause anomalous warmth.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

A “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex is a type of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurs when the polar stratosphere warms and the winds that normally flow from west to east around the pole weaken dramatically and even reverse direction1. These events can disrupt the polar vortex and cause it to expand equatorward, sending blasts of cold air to lower latitudes.

If the ECMWF and GFS models are predicting a “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December, which means that the polar vortex will split into two lobes, one over Eurasia and one over North America. This could have different impacts on the weather patterns depending on the location and strength of the lobes.

One possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will bring colder than normal temperatures to the eastern and central parts of the continent, while the lobe over Eurasia will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the western and northern parts of Europe and Asia. Another possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will be weaker than the lobe over Eurasia, allowing mild air from the Pacific Ocean to flood the continent and cause anomalous warmth, especially in the western and northern regions.

However, these scenarios are not certain and the impacts of the SSW event on the surface are not guaranteed. They depend on many factors, such as the timing, duration, and intensity of the SSW event, the interaction with other atmospheric phenomena, such as La Niña, and the variability of the tropospheric jet stream. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the exact outcome of the SSW event and its effects on the weather in North America and other regions.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The ECMWF (especially) and GFS models are predicting a "Canadian warming" of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December. That would flood North America with mild air from the Pacific Ocean and cause anomalous warmth.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

LOL, of course you would change the words to fit your wish cast.

These things are HIGHLY unpredictable and if the weaker lobe did come here, it doesn’t necessarily mean warmer for us. It’s more of a NW centered warmth around Idaho, Oregon, Washington.

[rwfromkansas]

My hometown looks to be in the bullseye. Around 6-8 inches or maybe up to 10 today.

Feel homesick on days like this.

They haven’t had many big snows the past few years and haven’t fared much better than us.

[gpsnowman]

My hometown looks to be in the bullseye. Around 6-8 inches or maybe up to 10 today.

Feel homesick on days like this.

They haven’t had many big snows the past few years and haven’t fared much better than us.

Come on rw, it's time for a road trip!!

[Brent]

My hometown looks to be in the bullseye. Around 6-8 inches or maybe up to 10 today.

Feel homesick on days like this.

They haven’t had many big snows the past few years and haven’t fared much better than us.

Yeah I mean we're probably gonna miss out here but I'm just really optimistic this is a sign that at least this winter will be a lot different than last winter

Like you said they never had anything like this the whole winter last year and here we are in November

[cheezyWXguy]

Gfs looks to be favoring a low cape/high shear setup in north central/northeast Texas on the 30th at the moment. SPC mentions it in their severe outlook but aren’t impressed due to the meager instability.

[Brent]

Near whiteout conditions in Kansas. Man I just hope we get ours at some point

[Cpv17]

Near whiteout conditions in Kansas. Man I just hope we get ours at some point

You most likely will.

[Brent]

Near whiteout conditions in Kansas. Man I just hope we get ours at some point

You most likely will.

Yeah most everyone here is hyping it up and I mean just to see a storm like this so close so early is probably a good sign

[gpsnowman]

Iowa State K-State game is a watch for all the snow weenies out there. That storm has been discussed on here today.

[rwfromkansas]

My hometown of McPherson, KS got around 8 it appears from social media. Official report had 6 inches by 4 p.m. and several inches since then…winding down.

Think Prof in Wichita got more than expected as well.

Hope this bodes well for TX.

[tajmahal]

The ECMWF (especially) and GFS models are predicting a "Canadian warming" of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December. That would flood North America with mild air from the Pacific Ocean and cause anomalous warmth.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

LOL, of course you would change the words to fit your wish cast.

These things are HIGHLY unpredictable and if the weaker lobe did come here, it doesn’t necessarily mean warmer for us. It’s more of a NW centered warmth around Idaho, Oregon, Washington.

These are not my ideas. I merely reported what the expert on the stratospheric polar vortex said. Of course, you would know that had you bothered to read the linked article.

You should try civility out.

[tajmahal]

The ECMWF (especially) and GFS models are predicting a "Canadian warming" of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December. That would flood North America with mild air from the Pacific Ocean and cause anomalous warmth.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

A “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex is a type of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurs when the polar stratosphere warms and the winds that normally flow from west to east around the pole weaken dramatically and even reverse direction1. These events can disrupt the polar vortex and cause it to expand equatorward, sending blasts of cold air to lower latitudes.

If the ECMWF and GFS models are predicting a “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December, which means that the polar vortex will split into two lobes, one over Eurasia and one over North America. This could have different impacts on the weather patterns depending on the location and strength of the lobes.

One possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will bring colder than normal temperatures to the eastern and central parts of the continent, while the lobe over Eurasia will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the western and northern parts of Europe and Asia. Another possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will be weaker than the lobe over Eurasia, allowing mild air from the Pacific Ocean to flood the continent and cause anomalous warmth, especially in the western and northern regions.

However, these scenarios are not certain and the impacts of the SSW event on the surface are not guaranteed. They depend on many factors, such as the timing, duration, and intensity of the SSW event, the interaction with other atmospheric phenomena, such as La Niña, and the variability of the tropospheric jet stream. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the exact outcome of the SSW event and its effects on the weather in North America and other regions.

The article I linked covers these details.

A Canadian Warming is not a SSW.

I don’t foresee an SSW in December, but the models seem to be suggesting a pattern that is referred to as a Canadian warming with high pressure ridging in the polar stratosphere over Canada and not near the Dateline and/or Alaska as in PV stretching. The orientation of the flow becomes more westerly and not northerly over North America and temperatures can turn fairly mild over the US and especially Canada during Canadian warmings. Below normal temperatures tend to be confined to Northern and Eastern Siberia closer to the PV center. I am basing this on ongoing analysis that I am involved with.

Canadian warmings can be precursors to SSWs if the forcing persists, which seems to be implied for the CFS forecast for what that is worth. Setting up the potential for an SSW in January. .... The scenario where high latitude blocking almost completely disappears also needs to be respected and would lead to an extended mild period across the NH. ... All the models are predicting universal warmth across the NH continents. A forecast I only see likely to verify if the PV stays quite strong in the month of December. ...

Wednesday Update

Since I wrote the blog on Monday, the models have all embraced the idea of a Canadian warming in early December none more so than the ECMWF model, which is showing an impressive Canadian warming for the second week of December.... This does look to be the first meaningful weakening of the polar vortex (only in a relative sense) from record strong to closer to normal. But if you believe the ECMWF weeklies than the PV will be weaker than normal by the second week of December.

Maybe people misunderstood my tweet in thinking that I was really excited about the prospect of a Canadian warming, so let me be clear Canadian warmings do not excite me and until now I have had very little interest to study them. However only for the sake of completeness in studying PV variability I do have some analysis on Canadian warmings. In Figure iv, I present the five main clusters or phases of PV variability with the surface temperature anomaly response below each cluster or phase. If the figure looks familiar it is because I have included it in previous blogs and it is from Kretschmer et al. 2018 (at least the top row). But I don’t believe I discussed previously cluster 3 or the middle phase which shows a Canadian warming. Below the plot showing the associated warming or positive geopotential heights across Canada and cooling or positive geopotential heights across northern Eurasia in the polar stratosphere, you can see the associated temperature anomalies including widespread warming across North America but especially Canada and cooling across northern Eurasia including Northern Europe. A Canadian warming is likely to bring a mild to very mild pattern for North America including the Northern US. The induced flow in the polar stratosphere is mostly westerly across North America and when translated to the troposphere, floods North America with mild North Pacific air. This is not a prospect that gets me excited.

* * * *

But I have done even more analysis with Canadian warmings. Of course, the obvious next question is, so what comes next? I have pertinent analysis on the answer to that question that I hope to discuss in next week’s blog.

[Brent]

Totals approaching a foot in Kansas please be a good sign for winter this was literally their first flakes!!

[HockeyTx82]

The ECMWF (especially) and GFS models are predicting a "Canadian warming" of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December. That would flood North America with mild air from the Pacific Ocean and cause anomalous warmth.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

A “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex is a type of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurs when the polar stratosphere warms and the winds that normally flow from west to east around the pole weaken dramatically and even reverse direction1. These events can disrupt the polar vortex and cause it to expand equatorward, sending blasts of cold air to lower latitudes.

If the ECMWF and GFS models are predicting a “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December, which means that the polar vortex will split into two lobes, one over Eurasia and one over North America. This could have different impacts on the weather patterns depending on the location and strength of the lobes.

One possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will bring colder than normal temperatures to the eastern and central parts of the continent, while the lobe over Eurasia will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the western and northern parts of Europe and Asia. Another possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will be weaker than the lobe over Eurasia, allowing mild air from the Pacific Ocean to flood the continent and cause anomalous warmth, especially in the western and northern regions.

However, these scenarios are not certain and the impacts of the SSW event on the surface are not guaranteed. They depend on many factors, such as the timing, duration, and intensity of the SSW event, the interaction with other atmospheric phenomena, such as La Niña, and the variability of the tropospheric jet stream. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the exact outcome of the SSW event and its effects on the weather in North America and other regions.

The article I linked covers these details.

A Canadian Warming is not a SSW.

Included some citations too.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which the polar stratospheric temperatures rise by several tens of kelvins over the course of a few days¹. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex². SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere².

A Canadian warming is a special subtype of a SSW that occurs when a substantial warming area develops over Siberia and extends all the way over North America⁵. This is different from a typical SSW, which usually involves a displacement or a split of the polar vortex². A Canadian warming can have significant impacts on the surface weather, such as bringing colder temperatures to the eastern United States and Canada⁵.

The difference between a Canadian warming and a SSW is mainly in the location and structure of the warming area and the polar vortex. A Canadian warming is more localized over the North American continent, while a SSW can affect the entire polar region. A Canadian warming does not necessarily disrupt the polar vortex, while a SSW often does. A Canadian warming is also less frequent and less predictable than a SSW.

(1) New study questions explanation for last winter’s brutal U.S. cold snap. https://news.ucar.edu/132831/new-study- ... -cold-snap.
(2) Sudden stratospheric warming - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_st ... ic_warming.
(3) STRATOSPHERIC WARMING FORECAST - severe-weather.eu. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... canada-fa/.
(4) Beast from the East 2? What 'sudden stratospheric warming' involves and .... https://theconversation.com/beast-from- ... her-152876.
(5) Impact of Climate Change on Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as ... - AMETSOC. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 3069.1.xml.

[tajmahal]

A “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex is a type of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurs when the polar stratosphere warms and the winds that normally flow from west to east around the pole weaken dramatically and even reverse direction1. These events can disrupt the polar vortex and cause it to expand equatorward, sending blasts of cold air to lower latitudes.

If the ECMWF and GFS models are predicting a “Canadian warming” of the stratospheric polar vortex by mid–December, which means that the polar vortex will split into two lobes, one over Eurasia and one over North America. This could have different impacts on the weather patterns depending on the location and strength of the lobes.

One possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will bring colder than normal temperatures to the eastern and central parts of the continent, while the lobe over Eurasia will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the western and northern parts of Europe and Asia. Another possible scenario is that the lobe over North America will be weaker than the lobe over Eurasia, allowing mild air from the Pacific Ocean to flood the continent and cause anomalous warmth, especially in the western and northern regions.

However, these scenarios are not certain and the impacts of the SSW event on the surface are not guaranteed. They depend on many factors, such as the timing, duration, and intensity of the SSW event, the interaction with other atmospheric phenomena, such as La Niña, and the variability of the tropospheric jet stream. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the exact outcome of the SSW event and its effects on the weather in North America and other regions.

The article I linked covers these details.

A Canadian Warming is not a SSW.

Included some citations too.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which the polar stratospheric temperatures rise by several tens of kelvins over the course of a few days¹. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex². SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere².

A Canadian warming is a special subtype of a SSW that occurs when a substantial warming area develops over Siberia and extends all the way over North America⁵. This is different from a typical SSW, which usually involves a displacement or a split of the polar vortex². A Canadian warming can have significant impacts on the surface weather, such as bringing colder temperatures to the eastern United States and Canada⁵.

The difference between a Canadian warming and a SSW is mainly in the location and structure of the warming area and the polar vortex. A Canadian warming is more localized over the North American continent, while a SSW can affect the entire polar region. A Canadian warming does not necessarily disrupt the polar vortex, while a SSW often does. A Canadian warming is also less frequent and less predictable than a SSW.

(1) New study questions explanation for last winter’s brutal U.S. cold snap. https://news.ucar.edu/132831/new-study- ... -cold-snap.
(2) Sudden stratospheric warming - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_st ... ic_warming.
(3) STRATOSPHERIC WARMING FORECAST - severe-weather.eu. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... canada-fa/.
(4) Beast from the East 2? What 'sudden stratospheric warming' involves and .... https://theconversation.com/beast-from- ... her-152876.
(5) Impact of Climate Change on Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as ... - AMETSOC. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 3069.1.xml.

Your debate is with the author, who is a worldwide–respected scientist about the stratospheric polar vortex and who regularly publishes in our most prestigious, peer reviewed science journals, like "Nature."

[HockeyTx82]

The article I linked covers these details.

A Canadian Warming is not a SSW.

Included some citations too.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which the polar stratospheric temperatures rise by several tens of kelvins over the course of a few days¹. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex². SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere².

A Canadian warming is a special subtype of a SSW that occurs when a substantial warming area develops over Siberia and extends all the way over North America⁵. This is different from a typical SSW, which usually involves a displacement or a split of the polar vortex². A Canadian warming can have significant impacts on the surface weather, such as bringing colder temperatures to the eastern United States and Canada⁵.

The difference between a Canadian warming and a SSW is mainly in the location and structure of the warming area and the polar vortex. A Canadian warming is more localized over the North American continent, while a SSW can affect the entire polar region. A Canadian warming does not necessarily disrupt the polar vortex, while a SSW often does. A Canadian warming is also less frequent and less predictable than a SSW.

(1) New study questions explanation for last winter’s brutal U.S. cold snap. https://news.ucar.edu/132831/new-study- ... -cold-snap.
(2) Sudden stratospheric warming - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_st ... ic_warming.
(3) STRATOSPHERIC WARMING FORECAST - severe-weather.eu. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... canada-fa/.
(4) Beast from the East 2? What 'sudden stratospheric warming' involves and .... https://theconversation.com/beast-from- ... her-152876.
(5) Impact of Climate Change on Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as ... - AMETSOC. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 3069.1.xml.

Your debate is with the author, who is a worldwide–respected scientist about the stratospheric polar vortex and who regularly publishes in our most prestigious, peer reviewed science journals, like "Nature."

I'm not debating anyone, just adding another opinion to compliment your short replies to folks here on the board. It seems that some folks think a Canadian Warming is a type of SSW. You said it is not which appears to be true, but it seems to be a type of SSW in some camps.