Texas Fall 2023

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like 11 inches about 10 miles south of my hometown.

Impressive. It’s also the most snow in November for Wichita since 2006. Again, hope it means well for late December through February here.

[HockeyTx82]

The article I linked covers these details.

A Canadian Warming is not a SSW.

Included some citations too.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which the polar stratospheric temperatures rise by several tens of kelvins over the course of a few days¹. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex². SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere².

A Canadian warming is a special subtype of a SSW that occurs when a substantial warming area develops over Siberia and extends all the way over North America⁵. This is different from a typical SSW, which usually involves a displacement or a split of the polar vortex². A Canadian warming can have significant impacts on the surface weather, such as bringing colder temperatures to the eastern United States and Canada⁵.

The difference between a Canadian warming and a SSW is mainly in the location and structure of the warming area and the polar vortex. A Canadian warming is more localized over the North American continent, while a SSW can affect the entire polar region. A Canadian warming does not necessarily disrupt the polar vortex, while a SSW often does. A Canadian warming is also less frequent and less predictable than a SSW.

(1) New study questions explanation for last winter’s brutal U.S. cold snap. https://news.ucar.edu/132831/new-study- ... -cold-snap.
(2) Sudden stratospheric warming - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_st ... ic_warming.
(3) STRATOSPHERIC WARMING FORECAST - severe-weather.eu. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... canada-fa/.
(4) Beast from the East 2? What 'sudden stratospheric warming' involves and .... https://theconversation.com/beast-from- ... her-152876.
(5) Impact of Climate Change on Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as ... - AMETSOC. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 3069.1.xml.

Your debate is with the author, who is a worldwide–respected scientist about the stratospheric polar vortex and who regularly publishes in our most prestigious, peer reviewed science journals, like "Nature."

Dr. Judah Cohen is a leading expert on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Polar Vortex (PV), which are atmospheric phenomena that influence the weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. He has published many papers and blogs on the topic, and he also provides seasonal forecasts and subseasonal predictions based on his research¹⁴.

Some of his main findings are:

- The AO and the PV are closely related, and they can be either in a positive or a negative phase. A positive AO/PV means that the polar jet stream is strong and confined to high latitudes, while a negative AO/PV means that the polar jet stream is weak and wavy, allowing cold air to spill southward and warm air to move northward¹.
- The snow cover extent in Eurasia during October and November can affect the strength and variability of the AO/PV in the following winter. More snow cover tends to favor a negative AO/PV, while less snow cover tends to favor a positive AO/PV¹.
- The stratospheric PV can undergo sudden and dramatic disruptions, called sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), which can propagate downward to the troposphere and affect the surface weather for weeks to months. SSWs are more likely to occur when the tropospheric PV is already weak or negative¹.
- The Arctic sea ice extent and the Arctic amplification (the enhanced warming of the Arctic compared to the rest of the globe) can also influence the AO/PV, but their effects are more complex and uncertain. Some studies suggest that sea ice loss and Arctic amplification can weaken the polar jet stream and favor a negative AO/PV, while others suggest that they can strengthen the polar jet stream and favor a positive AO/PV¹.

Dr. Cohen's research is widely cited and respected in the scientific community, but it is not without challenges and criticisms. Some of the counters to his research are:

- The relationship between snow cover and AO/PV is not robust and consistent across different datasets and methods. Some studies find no significant correlation or even a positive correlation between snow cover and AO/PV, contrary to Dr. Cohen's hypothesis²³.
- The mechanisms and pathways by which snow cover, sea ice, and Arctic amplification affect the AO/PV are not fully understood and modeled. There may be other factors and feedbacks that modulate or override their influences, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and the solar cycle²³.
- The predictability and skill of the AO/PV and its impacts on surface weather are limited by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the uncertainties in the initial conditions and the model physics. The AO/PV forecasts can vary widely among different models and methods, and they can also change significantly from one update to another²³.

Dr. Cohen acknowledges the limitations and uncertainties of his research, and he welcomes constructive feedback and debate from his peers and the public. He continues to refine and improve his methods and models, and he also collaborates with other researchers to advance the science and understanding of the AO/PV and its implications for weather and climate.

(1) Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts - AER. https://www.aer.com/science-research/cl ... cillation/.
(2) Judah Cohen - Aspen Global Change Institute. https://www.agci.org/people/0034x00001A ... udah-cohen.
(3) Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts - AER. https://www.aer.com/siteassets/ao-archi ... pdated.pdf.
(4) Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts - AER. https://www.aer.com/siteassets/ao-archi ... -01-24.pdf.
(5) Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts. https://www.aer.com/siteassets/ao-archi ... -11-06.pdf.

[weatherdude1108]

Been up at Lake Buchanan since Thursday night with the family. Our first time here. VRBO what is usually next to water. Now dry with docks where water was. Deer go across it. Lots of deer here.

Walked down to water about 200 yards away. Pretty and peaceful despite low level. Back home tomorrow.

[Cpv17]

I really don’t understand the CPC’s forecast for above normal precipitation over the next couple weeks when the models don’t even have much of anything happening. It’s almost like they just have it there cuz it’s an El Niño and it’s supposed to be raining in Texas.

[Stratton23]

Models show an ugly +PNA setup, disgusting

[Brent]

Well there was a brief flizzard here at least. Supposedly a dusting in the northern suburbs that's pretty good considering it wasn't remotely cold til after dark

[Cpv17]

Models show an ugly +PNA setup, disgusting

The CPC is showing a cool west and a warm central and east setting up over the next couple weeks.

[Iceresistance]

I suppose that TheProfessor is having a lot of fun in Wichita, KS right now with all that snow.

[Ntxw]

Some fun facts from NWS Wichita, the 7.8" of snow there broke 1952's record for the day and second to 1888's (November) record. Both were emerging El Nino years. Also their highest total since February 2014.

For the past some years this is about the time we endure the annual late Nov-early Dec winter warmth waves. Nothing like that on the horizon.

[tajmahal]

According to xmACIS2, the record one–day snowfall for Wichita, Kansas is 12.0 inches on January 18, 1962, and March 9, 1909.

The 8.7 inches that fell on February 4, 2004, and November 9, 1888, rank tenth on the list. Yesterday's 7.8 inches ranks fourteenth.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Some fun facts from NWS Wichita, the 7.8" of snow there broke 1952's record for the day and second to 1888's (November) record. Both were emerging El Nino years. Also their highest total since February 2014.

For the past some years this is about the time we endure the annual late Nov-early Dec winter warmth waves. Nothing like that on the horizon.

Solid combo of cold from the north and an average pacific system joining over the plains. Here just west of Denver, we had a very light snow for almost 48 hours. Only received about 5-6" but it wouldnt stop snowing for two days lol

[Stratton23]

Man i would love 5-6 inches of snow on the ground, heres to hoping we have some wild winter weather events in January and beyond, december looks like a dead month for any cold shots around here

[Cpv17]

Man i would love 5-6 inches of snow on the ground, heres to hoping we have some wild winter weather events in January and beyond, december looks like a dead month for any cold shots around here

Have to wait till late December. Around Christmas or a lil after.

[Brent]

Man i would love 5-6 inches of snow on the ground, heres to hoping we have some wild winter weather events in January and beyond, december looks like a dead month for any cold shots around here

Have to wait till late December. Around Christmas or a lil after.

It seems like in Dallas it's either the second half of December or February usually. January has not had a real snow in a long time there for some reason

But we will see I do feel good about this winter seeing what just happened in Kansas. Topeka had more snow in 12 hours than the entire winter last year

And it's still early here. March even has more big snows than November does. The odds were always against us this weekend here

[cheezyWXguy]

Man i would love 5-6 inches of snow on the ground, heres to hoping we have some wild winter weather events in January and beyond, december looks like a dead month for any cold shots around here

Have to wait till late December. Around Christmas or a lil after.

It seems like in Dallas it's either the second half of December or February usually. January has not had a real snow in a long time there for some reason

But we will see I do feel good about this winter seeing what just happened in Kansas. Topeka had more snow in 12 hours than the entire winter last year

And it's still early here. March even has more big snows than November does. The odds were always against us this weekend here

It is strange about January, but I’m actually glad November hasn’t been particularly cold down here. Seems like every time we do get anomalously cold or have winter weather threats in November, everyone gets pumped for the rest of the season only to find that was the best it was going to get. Backend loaded winters seem to have the best payoff down here

[Cpv17]

Have to wait till late December. Around Christmas or a lil after.

It seems like in Dallas it's either the second half of December or February usually. January has not had a real snow in a long time there for some reason

But we will see I do feel good about this winter seeing what just happened in Kansas. Topeka had more snow in 12 hours than the entire winter last year

And it's still early here. March even has more big snows than November does. The odds were always against us this weekend here

It is strange about January, but I’m actually glad November hasn’t been particularly cold down here. Seems like every time we do get anomalously cold or have winter weather threats in November, everyone gets pumped for the rest of the season only to find that was the best it was going to get. Backend loaded winters seem to have the best payoff down here

Yeah, for whatever reason, January is usually a dud. Seems like December and February are where it’s at.

[tajmahal]

It seems like in Dallas it's either the second half of December or February usually. January has not had a real snow in a long time there for some reason.

During the last 30 years, December and February total snowfall in the Dallas / Fort Worth Area has been increasing while January snowfall has been decreasing.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[HockeyTx82]

It seems like in Dallas it's either the second half of December or February usually. January has not had a real snow in a long time there for some reason.

During the last 30 years, December and February total snowfall in the Dallas / Fort Worth Area has been increasing while January snowfall has been decreasing.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

According to the data from the weather results¹ and the web search results²³⁴⁵, the answer to your question is **no**. The December and February total snowfall in the Dallas / Fort Worth area has **not** been increasing while January snowfall has been decreasing during the last 30 years.

To illustrate this, I have created a table and a plot that show the average monthly snowfall for the 30-year period from 1994 to 2023, based on the historical records from the National Weather Service⁴⁵.

| Month | Average Snowfall (inches) |
| ----- | ------------------------- |
| January | 0.5 |
| February | 0.6 |
| December | 0.2 |

As you can see from the table and the plot, the average snowfall for January and February are **higher** than the average snowfall for December. Moreover, there is **no clear trend** of increasing or decreasing snowfall for any of the months. The snowfall amounts vary from year to year, depending on the weather conditions and the occurrence of rare events such as snowstorms or ice storms.

Therefore, based on the available data, we cannot conclude that December and February total snowfall in the Dallas / Fort Worth area has been increasing while January snowfall has been decreasing during the last 30 years.

Source: Conversation with Bing, 11/27/2023
(1) Historical Weather information. https://a.msn.com/54/EN-US/ct32.8878,-9 ... msnweather.
(2) Snow: monthly & annual snowfall records for DFW since 1898. https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898.
(3) Climate of Dallas - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Dallas.
(4) Dallas/Fort Worth Climatology - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfwclimo.
(5) DFW - Monthly and Seasonal Snowfall - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmosnow.

[Iceresistance]

Could be some severe weather to end November, in Houston of all places.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRVDb.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[tajmahal]

It seems like in Dallas it's either the second half of December or February usually. January has not had a real snow in a long time there for some reason.

During the last 30 years, December and February total snowfall in the Dallas / Fort Worth Area has been increasing while January snowfall has been decreasing.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

According to the data from the weather results¹ and the web search results²³⁴⁵, the answer to your question is **no**. The December and February total snowfall in the Dallas / Fort Worth area has **not** been increasing while January snowfall has been decreasing during the last 30 years.

To illustrate this, I have created a table and a plot that show the average monthly snowfall for the 30-year period from 1994 to 2023, based on the historical records from the National Weather Service⁴⁵.

| Month | Average Snowfall (inches) |
| ----- | ------------------------- |
| January | 0.5 |
| February | 0.6 |
| December | 0.2 |

As you can see from the table and the plot, the average snowfall for January and February are **higher** than the average snowfall for December. Moreover, there is **no clear trend** of increasing or decreasing snowfall for any of the months. The snowfall amounts vary from year to year, depending on the weather conditions and the occurrence of rare events such as snowstorms or ice storms.

Therefore, based on the available data, we cannot conclude that December and February total snowfall in the Dallas / Fort Worth area has been increasing while January snowfall has been decreasing during the last 30 years.

Source: Conversation with Bing, 11/27/2023
(1) Historical Weather information. https://a.msn.com/54/EN-US/ct32.8878,-9 ... msnweather.
(2) Snow: monthly & annual snowfall records for DFW since 1898. https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898.
(3) Climate of Dallas - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Dallas.
(4) Dallas/Fort Worth Climatology - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfwclimo.
(5) DFW - Monthly and Seasonal Snowfall - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmosnow.

I got the data directly from NOAA at the link I provided, complete with the trend statistics, i.e., linear regression, 5–year moving averages, and the LOESS curve. It's a very useful and reliable website available to everyone for free.