2023 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

Models specifically the GFS have been showing strong model storms over the Pacific since the latter half of October, none of them have become real beyond just an invest (92C, 92W, 93W).

[al78]

If nothing forms in the NW Pacific by next Monday overall activity it will be around average to date in terms of ACE which is something I would never have expected in a moderate El Nino year. I am curious as to what is countering the normally enhancing effect of El Nino. The other side of the Pacific has responded as expected.

[Hayabusa]

The current ACE is 271.6, unless a legit ACE maker forms, this "strong el nino" year would end way below the TSR forecast (ACE = 393)

[al78]

The current ACE is 271.6, unless a legit ACE maker forms, this "strong el nino" year would end way below the TSR forecast (ACE = 393)

ACE index for years since 1960 where warm ENSO conditions were present and persisted through the year from JAS (ONI >= 0.5):

1963 386
1965 436
1969 204
1972 413
1982 356
1987 357
1991 414
1997 570
2002 391
2004 481
2009 278
2015 463
2023 272?

Only one year out of twelve since 1960 has seen a lower NWP ACE index that 2023 to date when ENSO+ conditions were in place by peak season with many of them in the high 300's or over 400. The Nino influence on tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and NW Pacific this year has been very different from normal, and since the TSR forecasts are a combination of statistical models and a look at analogue years, it is not surprising the NW Pacific forecast is way too high.

[1900hurricane]

Sad.

[zzzh]

WPAC is now below average in all metrics except MH days.

[cycloneye]

And all those stats are with El Niño present that is supposed to enhance activity at the basin.

[dexterlabio]

Now I'm starting to believe that -PDO really negates the effect of El Niño in WPAC, in terms of favoring TC development. See 2009 for example.

[Hayabusa]

Maybe it would try last one attempt coming December

[zzzh]

Long range EPS has most of that WWB in the southwest Pacific. It make sense since it's summer there and the -PMM will make the ITCZ further south.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The Wpac is only at 15 nameable storms which is less than the Epac at 17 and much less than the Atlantic at 20. This ranks 2023 only ahead of 2010 when it comes to storm output. However, ace is quite high given the low quantity of storms produced and the highest since the 2019 season.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

With an ACE of about 271.6 despite having only 15 named storms, the WPac has an ACE/storm of 18.1. This is much higher than the average YTD of 11.64 (281.7/24.2 normal YTD).

Assuming we had a normal storm count of about 26, we could've easily been a hyperactive season.

I wonder what's with the incredible storm quality-lackluster storm count combo.

[dexterlabio]

What's even weirder is the possibility that this year will get some record for the earliest end of a typhoon season.

[Hayabusa]

What's even weirder is the possibility that this year will get some record for the earliest end of a typhoon season.

Long range GFS is now showing model storms for December

[dexterlabio]

What's even weirder is the possibility that this year will get some record for the earliest end of a typhoon season.

Long range GFS is now showing model storms for December

Would be fun to bet whether the GFS will get something right for the last time in 2023.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1729539874372378893

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ironically, the West Pacific is just still one Typhoon Saola away from having above-average ACE, typhoon days, major typhoons and major typhoon days despite the record low number of depressions/storms.

In other words, storm quality is astonishing.

[1900hurricane]

Careful with stuff that guy says.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Phantom storm yet again on the GFS lol. Hits the Philippines and bombs in the SCS

[zzzh]

WPAC is now below average in all metrics and the season is unlikely going to produce storms in the next 2 weeks. That's not what you'd expect in a strong/near super nino year