2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Is early of course, but decided to start this annual thread now as there are already some indications that the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season will be very active or maybe hyperactive. (See the Very early thoughts thread by CyclonicFury) As time goes by and June 1 approaches, we will see as the indicators take shape and the climate models forecasts, how things may turn out to be eventually, when the peak months come. The two main factors will be how ENSO stands by next summer and how warm will be the waters on the basin to see if is going to be a 2023 repeat,will be cooler or even warmer than this year. Ok folks, let's have good discussions without having heated exchanges.

List of links to all the indicators:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_VSHD.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png --- NAO

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_cu ... urrent.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_natl.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... tlssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drglob.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... arssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... omssta.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... eq_anm.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 00x600.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg



Here is the CanSips climate model. Those precipitation graphics for August / September look omminous.

[Hurricane2022]

Earlier than usual, but here we go. I can't wait to see ECMWF forecasts breaking 300 ACE points for next season.

[Category5Kaiju]

When you're already seeing chatter and speculations about the next hurricane season this far out, you know it has potential. Gonna be keeping a close eye considering how likely the El Nino we have now will diminish and how this past season did extremely well for what should have been a very quiet season storm-wise.

[cycloneye]

The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) and the ssta anomalies on December 1rst.

[cycloneye]

Added 9 new links to the long list and are at the top.They are, NAO, SOI, Instability for Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, GOM, and Vertical Shear for those areas. Will be adding a few more as time goes by.

Screenshot:

[mixedDanilo.E]

Honestly this year looks almost identical to 2009-10 especially in the atlantic.

[USTropics]

CANSIPS has been pretty consistent the past 3 runs (3 months) on a building La Nina by JAS, and a maximum of convection in the Caribbean. With the caveat that the SPB can always throw a wrench in things, let's see if this consistency remains as we get into Feb/March:




A quick/crude verification of its November 2022 forecast for JAS in 2023, it accurately predicted the anomalously low precipitation values in the Caribbean but failed to capture the active subtropics:



While it's important to note that precipitation anomalies ARE NOT storm tracks, the CFS has more of a subtropical look for JAS currently:

[aspen]

CANSIPS has been pretty consistent the past 3 runs (3 months) on a building La Nina by JAS, and a maximum of convection in the Caribbean. With the caveat that the SPB can always throw a wrench in things, let's see if this consistency remains as we get into Feb/March:

https://i.imgur.com/I5OmWSu.gif
https://i.imgur.com/guuUVEH.gif

A quick/crude verification of its November 2022 forecast for JAS in 2023, it accurately predicted the anomalously low precipitation values in the Caribbean but failed to capture the active subtropics:
https://i.imgur.com/gpCYMXo.png
https://i.imgur.com/Dp8Lvoo.png

While it's important to note that precipitation anomalies ARE NOT storm tracks, the CFS has more of a subtropical look for JAS currently:
https://i.imgur.com/vZo9GD8.png

I’m a little skeptical about the CANSIPS, just because it looks too favorable. -ENSO, +AMO, extremely moist MDR and Caribbean…it’s like if someone made the most ideal SST/RH map possible. I think it’ll probably change to a less insane forecast as we get into the SPB, but I thought the hyper-favorable SSTA configuration from early this year would change, and that didn’t happen. If it verifies, it looks like a 2017-esqe season. CFS looks like it could be a somewhat beefier 2023.

[Blown Away]

Another weak BH season in the forecast?

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Another weak BH season in the forecast?

The CFS is probably the worst long range model out there i would not put much stock in that prediction.

[cycloneye]

The NMME model at June, July and August for precipitation and sst anomalies.

[SFLcane]

The NMME model at June, July and August for precipitation and sst anomalies.

https://i.imgur.com/hL3zMvc.png

https://i.imgur.com/XqrY94H.png

A chase party at my house!

[cycloneye]

Looks like the sky is the limit for the 2024 season, but the main factors have to align in a favorable way such as ENSO in Neutral to La NIña, the AMO staying positive and NAO not being too strong to allow for the waters to stay warm.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1732824938908688731

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1733222859617747185

[ElectricStorm]

There's still so much uncertainty in these model forecasts I'm not really sure why people on social media are already calling for a 2005/2020 level season. Still so many other variables at play. Looks like it could shape up to be an active season, but I wouldn't go that far this early.

[Hurricane2022]

There's still so much uncertainty in these model forecasts I'm not really sure why people on social media are already calling for a 2005/2020 level season. Still so many other variables at play. Looks like it could shape up to be an active season, but I wouldn't go that far this early.

Let's look at the good part of this. There will no longer be comparisons with 2013 like this year and last year. Now it will be 2005/2020's turn to take on the vocabulary of some old acquaintances of ours from X/Twitter

[aspen]

There's still so much uncertainty in these model forecasts I'm not really sure why people on social media are already calling for a 2005/2020 level season. Still so many other variables at play. Looks like it could shape up to be an active season, but I wouldn't go that far this early.

I think it’s possible this season could be like 2020, in that everyone expects a monster CV season based on the SST/precip anomaly forecasts, but it ends up being west-based with a little lower-than-expected ACE for its NS total. Or maybe an unforeseen limiting factor pops up, like 2022’s North Atlantic marine heatwave. It’s way too early to say anything other than the potential is there for quite an active season.

[WeatherBoy2000]

There's still so much uncertainty in these model forecasts I'm not really sure why people on social media are already calling for a 2005/2020 level season. Still so many other variables at play. Looks like it could shape up to be an active season, but I wouldn't go that far this early.

Yeah a potentially record warm Atlantic likely coinciding with a la nina next year isn't everything for Atlantic activity. A good example of this is 2010, which had the record warmest Atlantic at the time coinciding with a strong la nina. Although it was a hyperactive season, it wasn't anywhere close to being a season like 2005. Forecasters were generally predicting a 180+ ace season, but 2010 fell short at 165. Record high sea surface temps, a la nina, and the lowest sea surface pressures since 1955, what could've held this season back from being anything but record breaking?:

In spite of the high number of tropical cyclones, mid-level dry air dominated the tropical Atlantic throughout the peak of the season, perhaps hindering the season from being even more active.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[cycloneye]

The C3S model has El NIño fading by Spring and the +AMO continues, according to the model.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1733822265362461177




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1733822267602206885

[mixedDanilo.E]

There's still so much uncertainty in these model forecasts I'm not really sure why people on social media are already calling for a 2005/2020 level season. Still so many other variables at play. Looks like it could shape up to be an active season, but I wouldn't go that far this early.

I think it’s possible this season could be like 2020, in that everyone expects a monster CV season based on the SST/precip anomaly forecasts, but it ends up being west-based with a little lower-than-expected ACE for its NS total. Or maybe an unforeseen limiting factor pops up, like 2022’s North Atlantic marine heatwave. It’s way too early to say anything other than the potential is there for quite an active season.

Well tbf both 2020 and 2005 were west based season with majority of the storm intensity peaking west of MDR. 2020 had lower ACE because many of the storms reached their peak intensity from last minute RI 24-48 hours before landfall while 2005 saw storms ramp up quickly and stay near peak intensity for at least 24-48 hours, which still kept the ACE count very high despite the fact there were no classic CV storms.