Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Lagreeneyes03]

Larry Cosgrove says some pattern change will happen around or after Christmas eve, with more moisture and cold. But, it won't really be big winter until after the January thaw, so it sounds like he is going for a bigger Jan. 20-February cold and snowy period.

In Cosgrove We Trust.

[rwfromkansas]

Larry Cosgrove says some pattern change will happen around or after Christmas eve, with more moisture and cold. But, it won't really be big winter until after the January thaw, so it sounds like he is going for a bigger Jan. 20-February cold and snowy period.

Don't know how you can have a January thaw when we haven't been that cold yet lol. We definitely have some time before this upcoming warm period weakens

Lol yeah you need something to thaw out from. Lol.

[Stratton23]

I hope hes right, we just need something to break down this pattern

[WacoWx]

Just something to talk abt would be nice.

[Cpv17]

12z models are looking very meh.

[Edwards Limestone]

Well that doesn't happen every day........

We do need to stop drilling for oil. If we take it all out of the ground the planet's natural lubrication will be gone and we will get more earthquakes.

I'm a 10 yr geologist in the O&G industry w/ a MS in Petroleum Geology- no offense but this doesn't make any sense.

What's causing the earthquakes? Hard to say, but most likely injection of produced water in "salt water disposal" wells that is pressuring up faults, etc.

Either way, statements like this don't belong here. Pure pseudoscience, again no offense.

It was meant to be a joke. Sorry it was taken differently. Working at a college like I do I hear lots of crazy stuff daily.

It's along the lines of this is what I was trying for.

https://youtu.be/cesSRfXqS1Q?feature=shared

Oh man, I feel like a total idiot. Really sorry about my response.

[Ntxw]

500mb pattern isn't horrible, there really isn't much of a torch. Forecast is about typical of December averages.

There is just no true cold air source, for the time being.

[Ralph's Weather]

Panhandle could be in for a heck of a snow storm if temps come in on low end of models. 30s and heavy precip in some form or another up there later this week. Very typical El Nino. We will get our event later this winter. Until then I will enjoy the cool weather.
Areas of East Texas were as low as 24 this morning. All we need is for a upper low to track overhead and we will be in for a good snow event.

[Stratton23]

The 18z GFS run is encouraging at the 500 mb level, weakens the PNA a bit

[bubba hotep]

One of the best WPC 168hr maps in a long time for Texas

[rwfromkansas]

I'm a 10 yr geologist in the O&G industry w/ a MS in Petroleum Geology- no offense but this doesn't make any sense.

What's causing the earthquakes? Hard to say, but most likely injection of produced water in "salt water disposal" wells that is pressuring up faults, etc.

Either way, statements like this don't belong here. Pure pseudoscience, again no offense.

It was meant to be a joke. Sorry it was taken differently. Working at a college like I do I hear lots of crazy stuff daily.

It's along the lines of this is what I was trying for.

https://youtu.be/cesSRfXqS1Q?feature=shared

Oh man, I feel like a total idiot. Really sorry about my response.

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GIrlTdaiVN0/VR-jghK3AEI/AAAAAAAASuY/ScOTOa5Tm7k/s1600/sound-like-an-idiot.gif

Love Chris Farley.

Hey, at least you apologized. The drama around here has died down of late.

Just waiting on some rain!

[Iceresistance]

Just something to talk abt would be nice.

The rain that is coming for Texas? Y'all would not argue that over no snow, at least there is some moisture.

[Stratton23]

This looks like one of those too good to be true moments, we will see if those rainfall totals verify or if this ends up being another bust like most events have been so far this winter

[HockeyTx82]

I'm a 10 yr geologist in the O&G industry w/ a MS in Petroleum Geology- no offense but this doesn't make any sense.

What's causing the earthquakes? Hard to say, but most likely injection of produced water in "salt water disposal" wells that is pressuring up faults, etc.

Either way, statements like this don't belong here. Pure pseudoscience, again no offense.

It was meant to be a joke. Sorry it was taken differently. Working at a college like I do I hear lots of crazy stuff daily.

It's along the lines of this is what I was trying for.

https://youtu.be/cesSRfXqS1Q?feature=shared

Oh man, I feel like a total idiot. Really sorry about my response.

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GIrlTdaiVN0/VR-jghK3AEI/AAAAAAAASuY/ScOTOa5Tm7k/s1600/sound-like-an-idiot.gif

Hey no hard feelings, I felt bad too. All good and glad we hashed it out.

Love me some Chris Farley!

[Ntxw]

With the jet extension and Aleutian low->GOA low isn't all bad. It is a precursor pattern in a lot of winters of signaling cold/storm periods ahead. Getting through it is the rough part until the low pressures retract westward through the Aleutians. Until that happens cold will be tough to be found.

[bubba hotep]

This looks like one of those too good to be true moments, we will see if those rainfall totals verify or if this ends up being another bust like most events have been so far this winter

1st up is the Panhandle, and they look locked in based on the 00z models.

[Brent]

Hoping we can nudge into more of that rain up here. It's about time we overperformed with something besides heat

[weatherdude1108]

This looks like one of those too good to be true moments, we will see if those rainfall totals verify or if this ends up being another bust like most events have been so far this winter

1st up is the Panhandle, and they look locked in based on the 00z models.

Around here, we could use the 3.1" I saw on that map. Mostly saw 1.5" around here, which is alright. Just thinking of the surface/groundwater replenishment.

[869MB]

Last year I recommended everyone check out the NOAA Experimental NBM 1D Viewer pinpoint 10-Day Forecasts which will provide you an hourly breakdown of several weather parameters such as temperature, wind speeds, cloud coverage, rainfall & snowfall accumulations, and thunderstorm probabilities close to your neighborhood. I find this website very useful in monitoring the daily forecast changes with respect to all of the weather variables I listed above. Some of you may find this website the most helpful when planning for forthcoming personal events in your respective neighborhoods. As with any weather forecast, be mindful that precise forecast confidence decreases significantly outside of 48 hours.


Once again, this link should take you to their website…select the site closest to your neighborhood from the menu on the top right on the page…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

[Tammie]

According to Joe Bastardi, cold will eventually get here…
https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/173 ... J0be-HnN-w