SPAC: JASPER - Remnants

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1734721466971689238

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 13/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 146.3E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (243 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 13/0600: 16.0S 145.6E: 025 (050): 055 (100): 985
+12: 13/1200: 16.1S 145.0E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 991
+18: 13/1800: 16.1S 144.3E: 050 (095): 030 (055): 999
+24: 14/0000: 16.2S 143.7E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 999
+36: 14/1200: 16.0S 142.7E: 085 (160): 025 (045): 1000
+48: 15/0000: 15.7S 141.7E: 105 (195): 025 (045): 1000
+60: 15/1200: 15.3S 140.7E: 125 (235): 030 (055): 999
+72: 16/0000: 14.8S 139.8E: 145 (270): 030 (055): 998
+96: 17/0000: 13.9S 137.8E: 160 (295): 030 (055): 996
+120: 18/0000: 13.4S 136.2E: 195 (355): 030 (055): 995
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper has been slow moving and steady in intensity, though
some improvement in banding has been seen in recent hours.

Position is good based on Cairns radar and local observations.

Organisation of convection has improved over the last 6 hours. Dvorak analysis
is based on a curved band pattern, with banding increasing from around 0.4-0.6
up to 0.8-1.0. 3 hourly average of DT is 3.5 and MET/PAT is in agreement. FT
and CI are set at 3.5. Banding presents better in VIS than in EIR. Recent
objective aids have not yet indicated intensification: at 0000 UTC ADT and AiDT
33 kts at 0000UTC, DPRINT 39kts down from 43 knots at 2330 UTC, (all 1-minute
wind speeds).

Surface observations at 00 UTC are all less than 45 knots with Agincourt Reef
reporting the strongest winds at 42 knots. Current and previous observations
indicate gales remain in at least three quadrants. Intensity is estimated at 45
knots.

Jasper is moving slowly westwards towards the north tropical Queensland coast
under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south. There is
good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and
Port Douglas, during Wednesday afternoon. Because of the wind structure and
speed of movement, gales are likely to be experienced on the coast around 6
hours before the centre crosses the coast. There is a large area of below gale
force winds near the centre.

CIMSS wind analysis indicates 8 knots of northwest shear at 18 UTC. Wind shear
is forecast to stay in the low range through to landfall. SSTs remain warm at
approximately 27 degrees Celsius. Based on these environmental conditions some
further intensification is possible prior to landfall, with deep convection
near the centre currently showing signs of improving.

In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across
Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the
Gulf of Carpentaria is possible this weekend.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1734992486546727020

[shah83]

Plenty of flooding in Cairns and elsewheres from Jasper flooding.