Stratton23 wrote:CMC has the system from yesterday along with another even further south system digging on its heals, the GFS is more progressive with this pattern,
The GFS is usually progressive with everything. That’s nothing new.
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Stratton23 wrote:CMC has the system from yesterday along with another even further south system digging on its heals, the GFS is more progressive with this pattern,
Stratton23 wrote:The EPS really likes the idea of some wintry mischief in the state over the next 10-12 days, its still pretty aggressive, looks like it has a deeper trough with that -NAO really slowing things down
Stratton23 wrote:Ntwx hopefully we can cash in big time with that setup!
Ntxw wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Ntwx hopefully we can cash in big time with that setup!
It would be incredibly bad luck if no one in the southern plains cashed in on *potentially* good pattern. 500mb should be favorable. Wild card is, as always, we don't yet know the quality of cold air involved since we don't live at 500mb.
So far this winter, many of the forecasts and statistical/analogs painted the southern high plains (eastern NM, SE Colorado, Kansas, NW Oklahoma, and Panhandle of TX) as ground zero for this winter, so far they have seen most of the action.
Cpv17 wrote:Yeah, you can see the retrogression on the ensembles of the blocking slowly poking its way into the Yukon Territories and Alaska. The EPS has it happening faster than the GEFS.
Stratton23 wrote:Wow thats a pretty strong -NAO blocking signature, definitely an intriguing pattern ahead
Stratton23 wrote:man the 00z EPS control run is quite something lol
Ntxw wrote:Signal for significantly favorable winter pattern is getting stronger. Turn of the calendar likely features -EPO and strong El Nino stj with Atlantic blocking. Golden trio.
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:Signal for significantly favorable winter pattern is getting stronger. Turn of the calendar likely features -EPO and strong El Nino stj with Atlantic blocking. Golden trio.
Latest few runs of CFSv2 going all-in on Major Cold outbreak into lower 48 weeks 3-4...The Mean is going towards a top 5 cold January
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_7day/1702879200/1705104000-YkhDtMt9nO0.png
30 day temp forecast/Entire month of January
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_30day/1702879200/1706745600-hs5sgJF7bBE.png
Control is even more extreme, has a 10 day stretch mid-month that would rival Feb 2021![]()
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-c00/conus/t2m_f_anom_10day/1702879200/1705795200-0z8o9reB9E8.png
Lets see if tonight's Euro weeklies starting back this trend up....
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