Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

Very deep troughing on the GEFS 18z

[Cpv17]

Man, do I love what I’m seeing on the 0z GFS regarding rainfall. Sign me up!!

[869MB]

Man, do I love what I’m seeing on the 0z GFS regarding rainfall. Sign me up!!

Hopefully this is a sign that some of the models are beginning to sniff out the long awaited El Niño atmospheric coupling pattern change I mentioned on Infinity Wx. Though the latest SOI trends are not very reflective of a moderate to strong El Niño coupled atmosphere, those warmer waters are still migrating east through the 3.4 Niño Region which will eventually produce the atmospheric response that should (hopefully) produce a much wetter weather pattern here across the Southern Plains through late Spring. So eventually, we should see more rainfall favorable model runs from the ensembles and operational models going forward into January.

And hopefully (for my sanity), unlike the numerous times throughout 2021, 2022 and 2023, the modeled rainfall actually transpires and delivers as forecasted.

[Cpv17]

The end of the 6z GFS is wild. It has a bowling bowl digging all the way down into Cabo San Lucas. Not sure I’ve ever seen that before.

[bubba hotep]

The new Euro Weeklies continue the trend of putting significant winter wx threats on the board for January. Enjoy your warm Christmas, and then buckle up. I think it's a pretty safe bet that the Southern Plains will be below/above normal for temp/precipitation in January.

[jasons2k]

Not to diss Cosgrove, but I wouldn’t say it’s going out on a limb to say the coldest part of the winter will probably occur during the end of January/beginning of February…

That’s like saying it’s going to get real hot in August. Come on…

LC has been doing weather for a long time. He knows his stuff. He does remind me of JB with his hype at times. I know he has to get clients and most people like cold and snow, but sometimes you just have to be honest with people about patterns. Imo, I still believe we got a ways to go, especially if the mjo goes back again into the warm phases (4-6). I'm hoping it will get into the colder phases sooner rather than later

I noticed Cosgrove shifted his tone a bit after moving to Houston. He tends to hype things a bit. Not JB-level but he definitely leans to the cold/stormy/extreme side of things.

When your primary source of income is warning clients about potential losses, it’s sorta what you do. The absolute worst for them is not forecasting a disaster that costs $

Looks like a wet end to the week, hopefully it clears out before Christmas.

[Fifty Rock]

The new Euro Weeklies continue the trend of putting significant winter wx threats on the board for January. Enjoy your warm Christmas, and then buckle up. I think it's a pretty safe bet that the Southern Plains will be below/above normal for temp/precipitation in January.

I was looking at the GFS and it would be great in my area, shows around a foot of snow the first week of January, but it's all just fantasy until it's on the ground...

[Cpv17]

The new Euro Weeklies continue the trend of putting significant winter wx threats on the board for January. Enjoy your warm Christmas, and then buckle up. I think it's a pretty safe bet that the Southern Plains will be below/above normal for temp/precipitation in January.

I was looking at the GFS and it would be great in my area, shows around a foot of snow the first week of January, but it's all just fantasy until it's on the ground...

Albany, TX huh? How was that football team this year?

[Stratton23]

12z Models are unimpressive with rain chances

[Yukon Cornelius]

We all definitely need the rain but if it could hold off until the end of deer season that would be cool.

[Ntxw]

Waiting on the Euro and it's very long range suite before making a synoptic post. We're changing into a better pattern.

But man, no freeze this December for DFW. But hey for us we come to expect that nowadays. Imagine the folks on the east coast! For the snowbirds out there it's been nothing short of a disaster with cold rain all the way up to Atlantic Canada. More rainstorms on the way up to Maine. Going to be a long (or short depending on perspective) since the very strong El Ninos tend not be good for them. But their climo is colder so it takes one big monster from the STJ for a memorable storm.

[Stratton23]

Euro is very interesting, The operational 12z Euro is colder than the GFS and CMC and has a really nice cold snap behind the christmas system, with a secondary shortwave diving down behind the main system, and actually produces some light wintry weather in central texas with the 2nd shortwave

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Waiting on the Euro and it's very long range suite before making a synoptic post. We're changing into a better pattern.

But man, no freeze this December for DFW. But hey for us we come to expect that nowadays. Imagine the folks on the east coast! For the snowbirds out there it's been nothing short of a disaster with cold rain all the way up to Atlantic Canada. More rainstorms on the way up to Maine. Going to be a long (or short depending on perspective) since the very strong El Ninos tend not be good for them. But their climo is colder so it takes one big monster from the STJ for a memorable storm.

Wow, my place south of 10 had a freeze and DFW didn’t?

I got down to 28 once and 32 another.

[Gotwood]

Waiting on the Euro and it's very long range suite before making a synoptic post. We're changing into a better pattern.

But man, no freeze this December for DFW. But hey for us we come to expect that nowadays. Imagine the folks on the east coast! For the snowbirds out there it's been nothing short of a disaster with cold rain all the way up to Atlantic Canada. More rainstorms on the way up to Maine. Going to be a long (or short depending on perspective) since the very strong El Ninos tend not be good for them. But their climo is colder so it takes one big monster from the STJ for a memorable storm.

I can’t speak for DFW but my area has dipped below freezing quite a few times this month. We haven’t had the crazy cold snap like last year obviously but it seems like it has been avg to below avg most of the month so far.

[Ntxw]

Waiting on the Euro and it's very long range suite before making a synoptic post. We're changing into a better pattern.

But man, no freeze this December for DFW. But hey for us we come to expect that nowadays. Imagine the folks on the east coast! For the snowbirds out there it's been nothing short of a disaster with cold rain all the way up to Atlantic Canada. More rainstorms on the way up to Maine. Going to be a long (or short depending on perspective) since the very strong El Ninos tend not be good for them. But their climo is colder so it takes one big monster from the STJ for a memorable storm.

I can’t speak for DFW but my area has dipped below freezing quite a few times this month. We haven’t had the crazy cold snap like last year obviously but it seems like it has been avg to below avg most of the month so far.

It's been above normal for most of the US. What we haven't seen is the long stretches of torch heat like we have in recent Decembers that makes it 'feel' cooler when in reality it's actually been above normal. Just not the records in our neck of the woods. Upper 50s and 60s isn't hot, but it is some 5-10F above.

[Gotwood]

Waiting on the Euro and it's very long range suite before making a synoptic post. We're changing into a better pattern.

But man, no freeze this December for DFW. But hey for us we come to expect that nowadays. Imagine the folks on the east coast! For the snowbirds out there it's been nothing short of a disaster with cold rain all the way up to Atlantic Canada. More rainstorms on the way up to Maine. Going to be a long (or short depending on perspective) since the very strong El Ninos tend not be good for them. But their climo is colder so it takes one big monster from the STJ for a memorable storm.

I can’t speak for DFW but my area has dipped below freezing quite a few times this month. We haven’t had the crazy cold snap like last year obviously but it seems like it has been avg to below avg most of the month so far.

It's been above normal for most of the US. What we haven't seen is the long stretches of torch heat like we have in recent Decembers that makes it 'feel' cooler when in reality it's actually been above normal. Just not the records in our neck of the woods. Upper 50s and 60s isn't hot, but it is some 5-10F above.

https://i.imgur.com/9nOqpMC.gif

Very true. Just checked the Avgs for my area didn’t realize it was that low.

[Ntxw]

I can’t speak for DFW but my area has dipped below freezing quite a few times this month. We haven’t had the crazy cold snap like last year obviously but it seems like it has been avg to below avg most of the month so far.

It's been above normal for most of the US. What we haven't seen is the long stretches of torch heat like we have in recent Decembers that makes it 'feel' cooler when in reality it's actually been above normal. Just not the records in our neck of the woods. Upper 50s and 60s isn't hot, but it is some 5-10F above.

https://i.imgur.com/9nOqpMC.gif

Very true. Just checked the Avgs for my area didn’t realize it was that low.

It can also be balanced out with some days in the 40s for highs which we haven't had much to average it out. After Christmas it will get knocked down some though, I think a +2 or +3 is where we will end up.

Seeing a lot of good signs for January.

[Fifty Rock]

The new Euro Weeklies continue the trend of putting significant winter wx threats on the board for January. Enjoy your warm Christmas, and then buckle up. I think it's a pretty safe bet that the Southern Plains will be below/above normal for temp/precipitation in January.

I was looking at the GFS and it would be great in my area, shows around a foot of snow the first week of January, but it's all just fantasy until it's on the ground...

Albany, TX huh? How was that football team this year?

They were fair to Midland this year

[nathanc1969]

Not to diss Cosgrove, but I wouldn’t say it’s going out on a limb to say the coldest part of the winter will probably occur during the end of January/beginning of February…

That’s like saying it’s going to get real hot in August. Come on…

LC has been doing weather for a long time. He knows his stuff. He does remind me of JB with his hype at times. I know he has to get clients and most people like cold and snow, but sometimes you just have to be honest with people about patterns. Imo, I still believe we got a ways to go, especially if the mjo goes back again into the warm phases (4-6). I'm hoping it will get into the colder phases sooner rather than later

I noticed Cosgrove shifted his tone a bit after moving to Houston. He tends to hype things a bit. Not JB-level but he definitely leans to the cold/stormy/extreme side of things.

When your primary source of income is warning clients about potential losses, it’s sorta what you do. The absolute worst for them is not forecasting a disaster that costs $

Looks like a wet end to the week, hopefully it clears out before Christmas.

I find Larry to be the most accurate forecaster out there. His long range outlooks hit quite often. If he says winter arrives late January into February then I would plan for it.

[Stratton23]

Interesting to see the GFS and Euro both agree on a 2nd shortwave trough moving in behind the main christmas system, both models have some marginal cold air to work with, but differ on if any precip can be produced, about 9 days out, but something to watch