Texas Winter 2023-2024

[barbdwornik]

This is my first post. I read this forum all the time and really appreciate the information even though I do not have the knowledge to share. My reason for posting now is my daughter is due to have our first grandchild February 11th. We live in Colleyville and she lives in Midland. She is super worried there will be an ice storm around that time and either we will not be able to make it for the birth or we will try and have an accident on the way. I will be following closely and would appreciate a heads up if bad weather is heading this way around that time. We could go and stay a couple of weeks in Midland before the date if that would make more sense with the weather pattern. Based on the discussion so far I am getting a little worried.

My husband is a retired pharmacist from the Dallas VA hospital. I saw a memory from 2013 , I think recently where we had a huge ice storm. He went to work on a Thursday and was not able to drive home until Sunday.

[Ntxw]

This is my first post. I read this forum all the time and really appreciate the information even though I do not have the knowledge to share. My reason for posting now is my daughter is due to have our first grandchild February 11th. We live in Colleyville and she lives in Midland. She is super worried there will be an ice storm around that time and either we will not be able to make it for the birth or we will try and have an accident on the way. I will be following closely and would appreciate a heads up if bad weather is heading this way around that time. We could go and stay a couple of weeks in Midland before the date if that would make more sense with the weather pattern. Based on the discussion so far I am getting a little worried.

My husband is a retired pharmacist from the Dallas VA hospital. I saw a memory from 2013 , I think recently where we had a huge ice storm. He went to work on a Thursday and was not able to drive home until Sunday.

Welcome! Hope all is well. No need to fret, while the second half of January and the first 2-3 weeks of February is primetime winter, especially in El Nino, the odds of a prolonged period with that kind of weather is relatively low with our climo. If one was coming we are usually all over it well before! Glad you made the jump to post .

[Tejas89]

Has DFW had a freeze yet? What’s the record for latest freeze?

[gboudx]

Has DFW had a freeze yet? What’s the record for latest freeze?

Nov 27th they recorded 32. So 1 freeze so far.

[Brent]

This is my first post. I read this forum all the time and really appreciate the information even though I do not have the knowledge to share. My reason for posting now is my daughter is due to have our first grandchild February 11th. We live in Colleyville and she lives in Midland. She is super worried there will be an ice storm around that time and either we will not be able to make it for the birth or we will try and have an accident on the way. I will be following closely and would appreciate a heads up if bad weather is heading this way around that time. We could go and stay a couple of weeks in Midland before the date if that would make more sense with the weather pattern. Based on the discussion so far I am getting a little worried.

My husband is a retired pharmacist from the Dallas VA hospital. I saw a memory from 2013 , I think recently where we had a huge ice storm. He went to work on a Thursday and was not able to drive home until Sunday.

Welcome! Hope all is well. No need to fret, while the second half of January and the first 2-3 weeks of February is primetime winter, especially in El Nino, the odds of a prolonged period with that kind of weather is relatively low with our climo. If one was coming we are usually all over it well before! Glad you made the jump to post .

Ha yeah if y'all ever get a real threat this place will make your head spin so there's your first clue but most years yeah the winter precip is gonna be short lived if it even happens so no reason to freak out. Stuff like 2013 and 2021 is rare and doesn't happen every year

Welcome to s2k

[Ntxw]

Still on track for a below normal stretch after Christmas. New Years will likely be chilly and stormy. There isn't arctic air per se during this stretch but the anomalous ridge/block over central Canada will displace what cold there is to the US and sit there for some time. Parade of storms will be hard to pin, but there will be quite a few.

[orangeblood]

End of Week 2, Jan 4-6th time frame has my attention now...long range models have been hinting at this for awhile with a patten flip/pacific jet weakens and the NA Ridge finally pops into NW Canada/Alaska with the Pacific Jet cutting underneath across the southern plains.

Ensembles are congregating in the slot you normally see southern plains winter storms originate in the long range model world...you can clearly see 3 significant storms on this map with the one in the middle grabbing our attention. The long range models have been stretching this area of blue out across the entire southern US for the past week but as we're getting inside 2 weeks, you can sometimes pick up storm positions more/less at this range. Something to now follow closely over the next several days

[Ntxw]

End of Week 2, Jan 4-6th time frame has my attention now...long range models have been hinting at this for awhile with a patten flip/pacific jet weakens and the NA Ridge finally pops into NW Canada/Alaska with the Pacific Jet cutting underneath across the southern plains.

Ensembles are congregating in the slot you normally see southern plains winter storms originate in the long range model world...you can clearly see 3 significant storms on this map with the one in the middle grabbing our attention. Something to now follow closely over the next several days
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1703160000/1704477600-FnMDcbIbN7k.png

GFS has been painting those dates over and over with different scenarios of snow.

[Brent]

The Euro tries to snow here on Christmas

No doubt the pattern is beginning to change regardless

[Ntxw]

The Euro tries to snow here on Christmas

No doubt the pattern is beginning to change regardless

There is a secondary PV streamer coming south after the SoCal cutoff low (raining in LA today) comes out on Christmas Day. If moisture can be had with that secondary surge, it will be cold enough above the surface. It may dig as far south as I-20.

[orangeblood]

End of Week 2, Jan 4-6th time frame has my attention now...long range models have been hinting at this for awhile with a patten flip/pacific jet weakens and the NA Ridge finally pops into NW Canada/Alaska with the Pacific Jet cutting underneath across the southern plains.

Ensembles are congregating in the slot you normally see southern plains winter storms originate in the long range model world...you can clearly see 3 significant storms on this map with the one in the middle grabbing our attention. Something to now follow closely over the next several days
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1703160000/1704477600-FnMDcbIbN7k.png

GFS has been painting those dates over and over with different scenarios of snow.

Jan 2nd looks somewhat interesting too but may not be cold enough quite yet

[Ntxw]

End of Week 2, Jan 4-6th time frame has my attention now...long range models have been hinting at this for awhile with a patten flip/pacific jet weakens and the NA Ridge finally pops into NW Canada/Alaska with the Pacific Jet cutting underneath across the southern plains.

Ensembles are congregating in the slot you normally see southern plains winter storms originate in the long range model world...you can clearly see 3 significant storms on this map with the one in the middle grabbing our attention. Something to now follow closely over the next several days
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1703160000/1704477600-FnMDcbIbN7k.png

GFS has been painting those dates over and over with different scenarios of snow.

Jan 2nd looks somewhat interesting too but may not be cold enough quite yet

Flow is slow, how many times have we been able to say that the past 10 years? Just need one to connect and really go nuts. I wouldn't be surprised if something popped up for New Years weekend.

[orangeblood]

GFS has been painting those dates over and over with different scenarios of snow.

Jan 2nd looks somewhat interesting too but may not be cold enough quite yet

Flow is slow, how many times have we been able to say that the past 10 years? Just need one to connect and really go nuts. I wouldn't be surprised if something popped up for New Years weekend.

Yep, this setup looks different/something we haven't seen in quite sometime.

[Ntxw]

Warming in December has been mild thus far over the stratosphere. However it gets more intense into January. Mid-winter strat warming in El Nino bodes well a week or two down the road.

[wxman57]

Has DFW had a freeze yet? What’s the record for latest freeze?

DFW hit 32F on Nov. 27th. You can see DFW climo for the past 50 months here:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&product=CF6&issuedby=DFW

No freeze yet in December, though. No freeze here in Houston, either, though we did hit 33F a week or two ago. Doesn't look like either location will see a freeze through the rest of the year. Believe the GFS' forecast for Jan 6th at your own risk...

[HockeyTx82]

Has DFW had a freeze yet? What’s the record for latest freeze?

DFW hit 32F on Nov. 27th. You can see DFW climo for the past 50 months here:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&product=CF6&issuedby=DFW

No freeze yet in December, though. No freeze here in Houston, either, though we did hit 33F a week or two ago. Doesn't look like either location will see a freeze through the rest of the year. Believe the GFS' forecast for Jan 6th at your own risk...

I want to believe.....

[Stratton23]

That EPS run is a thing of beauty! Havent seen a pattern like that in quite some time

[orangeblood]

Warming in December has been mild thus far over the stratosphere. However it gets more intense into January. Mid-winter strat warming in El Nino bodes well a week or two down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/rkjSFFu.gif

Euro ENS now beginning to tap into Siberian air late week 2 as well. Also, has same system that GEFS is picking up on

[gpsnowman]

Some decent rain coming down in GP. Should be a soggy few days leading up to Christmas.
Looking forward to an exciting January for a change. Hopefully lots to discuss and excitement.

[Ntxw]

Warming in December has been mild thus far over the stratosphere. However it gets more intense into January. Mid-winter strat warming in El Nino bodes well a week or two down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/rkjSFFu.gif

Euro ENS now beginning to tap into Siberian air late week 2 as well. Also, has same system that GEFS is picking up on
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1703160000/1704456000-zyTeUHXPDq8.png

Much of the US would experience turbulent weather. These (if verified) at the 500mb deep low anomalies are the ones that produce blizzards across the conus. We all remember them well in 2002, 2009, 2015 etc.