Texas Winter 2023-2024

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:


Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Widespread Rain Expected this Weekend. Turning Dry and Sunny for Christmas Day

Thursday, December 21, 2023 1:49 PM

A quick update on holiday weekend weather conditions. Forecasted rain amounts have increased a bit, low temperatures have decreased slightly, and Christmas Day weather is now expected to be sunny.

Light rain developed early Thursday morning and spread across most of the Hill Country and the Austin/I-35 corridor regions. Rain amounts as of midday Thursday generally averaged below 0.20 inches, although there have been several isolated totals to around a half inch.

A cloudy, mild, and somewhat unsettled weather pattern is taking shape across much of Texas thanks to a wave of low pressure that is slowly tracking northeast into Texas out of Mexico. With moisture increasing off the Gulf of Mexico, occasional light rain showers are forecast to expand in areal coverage and persist across the region Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. The probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent. Rain amounts through Friday evening are forecast to generally average around a quarter to a half inch.

The chance for rain is expected to decrease Friday evening into early Saturday morning as the wave of low pressure exits to the northeast.

High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid-60s west, to the low 70s near the coast.
Low temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings will be between 55 and 60 degrees.
High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to be near 68-70 degrees.
Lows Sunday morning will range from the mid-50s west, to the mid-60s across the coastal area.
The main weather story of the Holiday Weekend continues to be the good chance for widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms occurring between Saturday evening and late Sunday afternoon. The large trough of low pressure that is currently bringing heavy rain to southern California is forecast to track east to the Desert Southwest Friday, then turn northeast to the southern Plains states late Saturday into Sunday. The trough will help push a Pacific cold front across the state Sunday, with the front being the focus for the development of rain and scattered storms.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are predicted to increase in areal coverage Saturday evening and continue into Sunday afternoon. The threat for any strong to severe storms appears low. Meanwhile, periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain are forecast. With a very moist air mass in place, a few locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. The rain is now forecast to end from west to east late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening as drier air spreads in behind the Pacific cold front.

Rain amounts between Saturday night and Sunday evening are forecast to generally total between 1 and 2 inches across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, and between 1 and 3 inches across the eastern half of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

Clouds look to clear Sunday evening and Christmas Day is shaping up to sunny and pleasant. Expect a high temperature in the low 60s. Northwesterly winds will develop behind the cold front Sunday evening and continue through Christmas Day. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph are forecast Monday into Monday evening.

A sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast next Tuesday through Friday. High temperatures next week are predicted to generally be in the low 60s. Lows are forecast to be in the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Bob

https://www.lcra.org/news/bob-rose-on-the-weather/

[Stratton23]

Man i would love a heavy snow event! I tell you their is nothing better than sitting on the back porch drinking hot chocolate with snow on the ground!

[Ntxw]

Man i would love a heavy snow event! I tell you their is nothing better than sitting on the back porch drinking hot chocolate with snow on the ground!

Amen, we can't say for sure of X spot will get anything but you certainly want to load the dice in your favor. We get a few pieces soon it looks like.

[Ntxw]

SSW on the Euro suite to begin the new year. 60mb winds reverse, would qualify on some members.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Warming in December has been mild thus far over the stratosphere. However it gets more intense into January. Mid-winter strat warming in El Nino bodes well a week or two down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/rkjSFFu.gif

Euro ENS now beginning to tap into Siberian air late week 2 as well. Also, has same system that GEFS is picking up on
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1703160000/1704456000-zyTeUHXPDq8.png

Bring the Arctic hammer with STJ steroids. I want to encase Texas in frozen everything.

[Stratton23]

Be careful what you wish for haha, I would love a good heavy snow event, but i would rather not have a repeat of February 2021 with all of the ice thrown in as well, ice storms suck

[Cpv17]

I want a ridge bridge from Siberia to Alaska please!

[HockeyTx82]

When do we start the Wxman57 packing his bags for South America watch?

[South Texas Storms]

Warming in December has been mild thus far over the stratosphere. However it gets more intense into January. Mid-winter strat warming in El Nino bodes well a week or two down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/rkjSFFu.gif

Euro ENS now beginning to tap into Siberian air late week 2 as well. Also, has same system that GEFS is picking up on
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1703160000/1704456000-zyTeUHXPDq8.png

Bring the Arctic hammer with STJ steroids. I want to encase Texas in frozen everything.

No thanks. ERCOT already projects major power grid issues if we have another arctic air mass with lots of clouds and frozen precip. I could do without having another 3 day power outage again.

[Cpv17]

Euro ENS now beginning to tap into Siberian air late week 2 as well. Also, has same system that GEFS is picking up on
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1703160000/1704456000-zyTeUHXPDq8.png

Bring the Arctic hammer with STJ steroids. I want to encase Texas in frozen everything.

No thanks. ERCOT already projects major power grid issues if we have another arctic air mass with lots of clouds and frozen precip. I could do without having another 3 day power outage again.

I seriously doubt it gets that cold during an El Niño. I’m still not even sold on it getting cold yet.

[Cpv17]

I swear no one on Twitter that talks about the weather lives in Texas or the south in general. Everyone on there that posts anything weather related is all east coast people.

[Brent]

Euro ENS now beginning to tap into Siberian air late week 2 as well. Also, has same system that GEFS is picking up on
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1703160000/1704456000-zyTeUHXPDq8.png

Bring the Arctic hammer with STJ steroids. I want to encase Texas in frozen everything.

No thanks. ERCOT already projects major power grid issues if we have another arctic air mass with lots of clouds and frozen precip. I could do without having another 3 day power outage again.

Yeah after February 2021 and last Christmas I am good never seeing legit arctic air ever again watch out if we get La Nina again I guess but yeah probably not this year

[Cpv17]

Bring the Arctic hammer with STJ steroids. I want to encase Texas in frozen everything.

No thanks. ERCOT already projects major power grid issues if we have another arctic air mass with lots of clouds and frozen precip. I could do without having another 3 day power outage again.

Yeah after February 2021 and last Christmas I am good never seeing legit arctic air ever again watch out if we get La Nina again I guess but yeah probably not this year

Next winter could be very interesting along with hurricane season this summer.

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt fully discount a major arctic outbreak down the road even with el nino, of that SSW verifies, mid january could be very cold somewhere in the US

[Cpv17]

I wouldnt fully discount a major arctic outbreak down the road even with el nino, of that SSW verifies, mid january could be very cold somewhere in the US

I hear talk about SSWE every winter and they never really seem to do much of anything for us. I kinda just feel like SSWE’s are all just a bunch of talk and hype.

[Quixotic]

There’s cold and there’s cold enough. 2009-2010 was cold enough. Doesn’t need to be arctic.

[Cpv17]

There’s cold and there’s cold enough. 2009-2010 was cold enough. Doesn’t need to be arctic.

For DFW it just needs to be a marginal cold blast but for my area it would need to be a pretty significant one to get anything.

[Quixotic]

There’s cold and there’s cold enough. 2009-2010 was cold enough. Doesn’t need to be arctic.

For DFW it just needs to be a marginal cold blast but for my area it would need to be a pretty significant one to get anything.

I dunno man. I don’t recall the Christmas Miracle of 2004 being that cold.

[gpsnowman]

There’s cold and there’s cold enough. 2009-2010 was cold enough. Doesn’t need to be arctic.

A great winter. I counted 7 snow events that season and most had at least some accumulation with a couple of big dogs. Seemed like an El Nino pattern the entire winter with fronts every few days keeping it cold to cool with overcast skies more often than not. Many days in the 30s if I recall. Maybe January through March can deliver something similar.

[Cpv17]

There’s cold and there’s cold enough. 2009-2010 was cold enough. Doesn’t need to be arctic.

For DFW it just needs to be a marginal cold blast but for my area it would need to be a pretty significant one to get anything.

I dunno man. I don’t recall the Christmas Miracle of 2004 being that cold.

I’d say a 1040mb high would suffice for DFW. For me I’d say 1050. I could definitely be wrong though.