Texas Winter 2023-2024

[CaptinCrunch]

0z CMC is much colder than the GFS through next week with multiple freezes.

Canadian model is always too cold. The fast southern storm track should keep any significant cold to our north for the next week or two.

You get a system even moderate like what we've had the last 2 days combined with a significant cold front and you will have all the winter wx you can want.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro has a system beginning to interact with some cold air at the end of its run, if we can get a dynamic system in place, we could cash in big time

[Ntxw]

FWIW Beijing, China just experienced their Dec '83. 300 hours of below freezing since the 11th. North Asia seems to frequent these cold blasts in Nino Decembers while the conus roasts.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z Euro has a system beginning to interact with some cold air at the end of its run, if we can get a dynamic system in place, we could cash in big time

1045 High coming down the Rockies

[wxman57]

12z Euro has a system beginning to interact with some cold air at the end of its run, if we can get a dynamic system in place, we could cash in big time

1045 High coming down the Rockies

More like a 1035mb high and a light freeze for the D-FW area Jan 2. Fast southern storm track could mean trouble for the south if any Arctic air ever makes it down here this winter.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z Euro has a system beginning to interact with some cold air at the end of its run, if we can get a dynamic system in place, we could cash in big time

1045 High coming down the Rockies

More like a 1035mb high and a light freeze for the D-FW area Jan 2. Fast southern storm track could mean trouble for the south if any Arctic air ever makes it down here this winter.

I just looked at the 12z… 1044 followed by a 1043 both are centered over the Central Colorado Rockies when they are that strength.

You’re wishing on January into February. You know it’s likely coming and the extended pattern looks wonderful for most in here.

Don’t know if it will bring precip, but I’m happy with zero warmth over the next few weeks. It actually looks like a normal Winter.

[Itryatgolf]

1045 High coming down the Rockies

More like a 1035mb high and a light freeze for the D-FW area Jan 2. Fast southern storm track could mean trouble for the south if any Arctic air ever makes it down here this winter.

I just looked at the 12z… 1044 followed by a 1043 both are centered over the Central Colorado Rockies when they are that strength.

You’re wishing on January into February. You know it’s likely coming and the extended pattern looks wonderful for most in here.

Don’t know if it will bring precip, but I’m happy with zero warmth over the next few weeks. It actually looks like a normal Winter.

Let's pray for a PV split that effects us with cold and perhaps some precipitation and whatever else is needed

[Harp.1]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

Operationals do not matter this far out, especially to the commoner who only looks at 240-384 hr frame GFS.

Ensembles show a ton of promise.

[bubba hotep]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

My fear is that a lobe of the TPV drops down over SE Canada and/or the Great Lakes and suppresses everything trying to come out of the SW

[Harp.1]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

Operationals do not matter this far out, especially to the commoner who only looks at 240-384 hr frame GFS.

Ensembles show a ton of promise.

Commoner?

[Itryatgolf]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

My fear is that a lobe of the TPV drops down over SE Canada and/or the Great Lakes and suppresses everything trying to come out of the SW

I hope that don't occur because once we get into January, time goes by really fast and it's difficult to see winter weather as it is

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

My fear is that a lobe of the TPV drops down over SE Canada and/or the Great Lakes and suppresses everything trying to come out of the SW

Western Ontario is where we want it or Saskie

[HockeyTx82]

I was out on my run when the front blew through. Felt awesome. You could see the cloud deck and the wind shift got me into the Christmas Spirit.

[Itryatgolf]

Merry Christmas to everyone!! I won't be scrooge too much lol, but it looks like bubba hotep will be correct for first week of January with not much chance at winter weather. I'm thinking mid to end of January for our next opportunity. The normal caveat applies of course.

[Stratton23]

I guess it depends on where you are, ensembles are definitely sniffing out wintry potential in texas in the first week of january, but I think the more significant winter weather down the road may be somewhat dependent on what happens with this SSWE

[Ntxw]

Merry Christmas S2K winter crew! Cold outside feeling like it! May our snow dreams come true in the new year!

[dpep4]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

Operationals do not matter this far out, especially to the commoner who only looks at 240-384 hr frame GFS.

Ensembles show a ton of promise.

Commoner?

I see his location is the Weimar Republic, hyperinflation will make him a commoner soon enough....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Operationals do not matter this far out, especially to the commoner who only looks at 240-384 hr frame GFS.

Ensembles show a ton of promise.

Commoner?

I see his location is the Weimar Republic, hyperinflation will make him a commoner soon enough....

Out here we believe in counter party risk free assets and real world assets….. oh and winter weather.

Oh, and I agree about your hyperinflation narrative.


My point was the visitors here who are here to take advice from the pros only look at the GFS operational frames in the long range. Nothing wrong with it for fun, but those who use every tool available to make decisions for practical purposes (in my case, energy trading and farming) use the ensembles this far out, to make decisions, and view the control runs as message board fodder.

Merry Christmas to you and yours!

[Iceresistance]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational model runs at this time. Dry cold does not excite me, sorry.

Operationals do not matter this far out, especially to the commoner who only looks at 240-384 hr frame GFS.

Ensembles show a ton of promise.

Commoner?

Most people look the operational models Instead of the ensemble models.