2024 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

2023, an El Nino year (on the latter half) ends with a below average season. Lots of phantoms by the models that were fairly believable because it's an El Nino and it ended with a very ugly storm called Jelawat. It's like the 2023 WPAC season experienced its own "Atlantic wave breaking". El Nino forecasts show it holding until early 2024, maybe we would get early season strong TCs? My gut feeling says 2024 would be more active compared to 2023. That WPAC energy has got to explode sometimes.
2024 names

[zzzh]

No. When the strong Nino peaks and decays in winter and spring, the sinking branch will gradually move from IO/MC to WPAC/CPAC, with enhanced trade wind over WPAC. I think we'll see the first storm in June/July and a fairly inactive JJA. Overall activity depends on how fast the Nino decays and Nina develops, which we will have a better idea in the spring.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: No. When the strong Nino peaks and decays in winter and spring, the sinking branch will gradually move from IO/MC to WPAC/CPAC, with enhanced trade wind over WPAC. I think we'll see the first storm in June/July and a fairly inactive JJA. Overall activity depends on how fast the Nino decays and Nina develops, which we will have a better idea in the spring.

That is most likely the case, but it's not an absolute. See 2016 --- which had an average season following the decay of the Super Niño.

[Kingarabian]

Could see that odd ball STY around March/April.

[zzzh]

:uarrow: No. When the strong Nino peaks and decays in winter and spring, the sinking branch will gradually move from IO/MC to WPAC/CPAC, with enhanced trade wind over WPAC. I think we'll see the first storm in June/July and a fairly inactive JJA. Overall activity depends on how fast the Nino decays and Nina develops, which we will have a better idea in the spring.

That is most likely the case, but it's not an absolute. See 2016 --- which had an average season following the decay of the Super Niño.

Yes, that's the case where the Nino was decaying slowly and that year barely reached Nina territory.

[zzzh]

I don't think we can even see a storm in the spring. See 1973, 1983, 1992, 1998, 2010, 2016.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My 2023 forecast calling for an active season busted so bad (but we still got a really intense season).

For this reason, I'm calling for an active 2024. Hoping this is a jinx (!!!) but it looks like we climate models are hinting at a +PMM right now. It's def way too early, so take this with a grain of salt, but there's a chance that we could finally break our ACE/activity slump.

Side note, could that warm pool off Japan and the -PMM have contributed to an inactive 2023?

[Hurricane2022]

Side note, could that warm pool off Japan and the -PMM have contributed to an inactive 2023?

Like the 2022 Atlantic season?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Side note, could that warm pool off Japan and the -PMM have contributed to an inactive 2023?

Like the 2022 Atlantic season?

I suppose. The 2022 Atlantic season, like this one, was supposed to be quite an active one too?

[doomhaMwx]

The WPAC MDR looks bone-dry on the climate models. On the other hand, lots of talks about a possible active ATL hurricane season ahead.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1744074487723688364

[dexterlabio]

2010 and 1973 could be good analog years for 2024.

2023 is like 2009 except that the 2009 typhoon season flourished in the last quarter of the year, while 2023 peaked halfway through.

Both years are not your classic above-average typhoon seasons in terms of total storm count and ACE, but they are far from La Niña-inactive.

Both years did not have particularly strong +PDO signature, but they are both strong El Niño years.

2024 is looking more like a -ENSO/-PDO year coming from a strong El Niño/-PDO. That being said, I don't expect the first named storm of the season until July. However, there's a good chance that the "howlers" of this year will appear in Fall, taking the classic La Niña track.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1747248364830261318

[cycloneye]

Hey, this is interesting. Maybe recon for WPAC?

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1761022259295330693

[JetFuel_SE]

Hey, this is interesting. Maybe recon for WPAC?

https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1761022259295330693

Very much needed, hope they go through with it.

[Hayabusa]

GFS the last 2 runs showing the first intense model storm over the Wpac

[zzzh]

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastMay2024.pdf
TSR May forecast: 25/15/7, ace 225.

[mrbagyo]

GFS the last 2 runs showing the first intense model storm over the Wpac
https://i.imgur.com/njiWgv2.png
https://i.imgur.com/F9OZnlB.png

It's gone again LMFAO

[Hurricane2022]

GFS the last 2 runs showing the first intense model storm over the Wpac
https://i.imgur.com/njiWgv2.png
https://i.imgur.com/F9OZnlB.png

It's gone again LMFAO

The GFS now replaced this with a ESCS in the Bay of Bengal (Indian Ocean).

[Hayabusa]

Euro and GFS are back to developing a May TC again

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1789640984030044359