Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

End of the 12z could spell arctic air, big arctic air mass entering the US courtesy of strong blocking over alaska

[bubba hotep]

End of the 12z could spell arctic air, big arctic air mass entering the US courtesy of strong blocking over alaska

It's an encouraging look. Would like to see the lead southern wave slow down or speed up to allow the trailing energy to dig enough to pull down that cold air into some precipitation.

[Stratton23]

bobba hotep the EPS 12z run is very bullish lol

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

The majority of the long term forecast will be characterized by
dry northwesterly flow aloft resulting in frequent cold frontal
passages which will keep meaningful moisture content scoured to
the Gulf. This will maintain seasonably cool and rain-free weather
into early 2024 until perhaps a more potent and deeper system
arrives towards the middle of next week. Until then, expect daily
high temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s with overnight lows in
the 20s and 30s for the rest of this week and into the upcoming
holiday weekend. The coolest day out of the next several may end
up being Thursday, as the reinforcing cold front alluded to in
the short term forecast results in stout cold advection with
breezy northwest winds and partly/mostly cloudy skies during the
daytime. Highs may struggle to make it out of the 40s in areas
that remain overcast for most of the day. A steady warmup will
occur heading into the New Year`s holiday weekend with cool but
tranquil weather expected for any outdoor festivities. The next
meaningful rain chances won`t arrive until the middle of next
week at the earliest.

-Stalley

[Ntxw]

It was cooler in DFW than it was in Minneapolis on Christmas Day. 51/37 vs 54/42, El Nino.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS has trended toward the euro with high latitude blocking near or just north of alaska, much colder run

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has trended toward the euro with high latitude blocking near or just north of alaska, much colder run

Also a 1050+ mb HP in NW Canada, a step in the right direction.

[txtwister78]

Hope everyone had a great Christmas and is ready to ring in the New Year in a few days.

Looks like as we get into the latter half of the first week of January, we may see some colder than normal temps as supported by the ensembles for a few days. Negative EPO signal would also seem to support that during that time window. With an active sub-tropical jet, at least it's something to watch for those of us up north looking for a chance of some wintry precip.

Right now, it would appear that whatever cold we do manage to get won't last long, although depending on how this SSW event evolves perhaps, we could see some true arctic air displaced into the southern plains late January. That of course would line up with our target period climatologically speaking (late Jan-early Feb). Release the hounds.

[orangeblood]

Good looking signal from the latest GEFS for winter weather somewhere across the southern plains the next 10-14 days

[Stratton23]

orangeblood seems like the GEFS is in agreement with the EPS, this could get fun down the road

[Iceresistance]

Good looking signal from the latest GEFS for winter weather somewhere across the southern plains the next 10-14 days
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel/1703613600/1704996000-VOicDKS7okg.png

Hello! Can I order #3, #17, and #30 please?

[Brent]

The op GFS runs refusing to snow here today is something else

[Iceresistance]

The op GFS runs refusing to snow here today is something else

I think 57 is sabotaging the GFS for no snow.

[cstrunk]

It was looking iffy but I did wake up to a white day-after-Christmas in Iowa! It's been snowing basically all day. Very light, but we have probably 2".

[gpsnowman]

It was looking iffy but I did wake up to a white day-after-Christmas in Iowa! It's been snowing basically all day. Very light, but we have probably 2".

Nice to finally see some snow falling up north. It'll probably melt in a couple days but it's a start!!

[mmmmsnouts]

DFW finally had its first freeze of the season Tuesday morning... even though pretty much everyone else had theirs right after Halloween. Gotta do something about that heat lamp under the weather station.

[Stratton23]

Very persistent/ aggressive snowfall signal in the 00z EPS

[Harp.1]

Very persistent/ aggressive snowfall signal in the 00z EPS

For which locations or regions?

[Iceresistance]

Very persistent/ aggressive snowfall signal in the 00z EPS

For which locations or regions?

Oklahoma and Northern Texas, there is this example on the snow depth on PV.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The end of the Euro has some promise for TX winter lovers. 8-10 days out though. I really hope this Nino is back loaded.