Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

And this looks to come during a period of below normal temps.



Fingers crossed someone gets some wintry precip. If not, it looks like a decent rain event, at least.

[Itryatgolf]

I'm hoping for one winter storm this winter and timing will be even more important bc of stronger niño. Hopefully the SSW will transpire to a colder outcome for us

[Itryatgolf]

First week of January continues to look interesting. Surface cold is still lacking but with cold air above need a dynamic system to take advantage. The 2nd system has more qpf with it and could be the larger event if it can find cold.

What are your thoughts on Dr. Amy Butler's interpretation of the SSW? I'm hoping it verifies for us to get colder

[Quixotic]

It’s coming. Blocking over AK. -AO. Some blocking over Greenland. A STJ on firehose? We will get a good one soon. I’m very very confident. I don’t care about the SSW because the polar jet is already disturbed and weak.

[Stratton23]

I love that 18z GFS run lol, i unhacked the 18z GFS for all you snow lovers! Including myself

[Harp.1]

I love that 18z GFS run lol

It delivers the goods for Texas!!

[bubba hotep]

I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.

Its absolutely possible. You can see it almost at the end of the GFS. A system that streams down the spine of the Rockies, and digs down a bit further south of the big bend region should do the trick. Now, having a chilly source region in Canada and some snow cover in the US would help. Just need some help with the upper levels. Really need the low to dig in.

Blocking over the Beaufort Sea into the Arctic (just above Alaska) is just as effective. It doesn't directly send cold to us like an Alaskan block but seeds cold air into W-Central Canada. Feb 2021 had record blocking up there.

https://i.imgur.com/ig14ihy.gif

AO/NAO to me is a wall, it's blocking but what is it blocking? Cold air? warm air? Wxman57?!

During strong Nino's, -AO/NAO combo is usually pretty good for wide spread cold in Jan/Feb. The problem with big -EPO spikes is that they can suppress everything, and we get a dry cold.

With that said, what an epic fantasy land storm on the 18z GFS. Shift that south 100 miles and lock it in!

[Iceresistance]

Its absolutely possible. You can see it almost at the end of the GFS. A system that streams down the spine of the Rockies, and digs down a bit further south of the big bend region should do the trick. Now, having a chilly source region in Canada and some snow cover in the US would help. Just need some help with the upper levels. Really need the low to dig in.

Blocking over the Beaufort Sea into the Arctic (just above Alaska) is just as effective. It doesn't directly send cold to us like an Alaskan block but seeds cold air into W-Central Canada. Feb 2021 had record blocking up there.

https://i.imgur.com/ig14ihy.gif

AO/NAO to me is a wall, it's blocking but what is it blocking? Cold air? warm air? Wxman57?!

During strong Nino's, -AO/NAO combo is usually pretty good for wide spread cold in Jan/Feb. The problem with big -EPO spikes is that they can suppress everything, and we get a dry cold.

With that said, what an epic fantasy land storm on the 18z GFS. Shift that south 100 miles and lock it in!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023122718/384/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023122718/gfs_z500_vort_us_60.png

That is a big yikes, St. Louis gets 3-4 feet of snow on top of Ice...

[Brent]

If that GFS verifies I wouldn't even care if it snows again this winter

[Itryatgolf]

[quote="Itryatgolf"]I'm hoping for one winter storm this winter and timing will be even more important bc of stronger niño. Hopefully the SSW will transpire to a colder outcome for us if we have one

[AubreyStorm]

SNOW FLURRIES are possible in North #Texas tomorrow morning!

[Iceresistance]

SNOW FLURRIES are possible in North #Texas tomorrow morning!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCZLrQyWsAA-fRN.jpg

It also means that I may see some snow too!

[Ntxw]

First week of January continues to look interesting. Surface cold is still lacking but with cold air above need a dynamic system to take advantage. The 2nd system has more qpf with it and could be the larger event if it can find cold.

What are your thoughts on Dr. Amy Butler's interpretation of the SSW? I'm hoping it verifies for us to get colder

It will prolong the upcoming below normal period.

[Ntxw]

Ensembles today have a full continental trof. That usually bleeds a lot of cold in the western and central CONUS. Think big cold is on the table.

[mmmmsnouts]

If that GFS verifies I wouldn't even care if it snows again this winter

If that GFS verifies a lot of people in Oklahoma are going to need new roofs.

[Harp.1]

I keep reading that a SSW event will take place around January 6th. Affects won’t be felt for two weeks. Will it be Europe or N. America? Or both? Have any of yall seen this? Just trying to get your thoughts on this. Thanks.

[Iceresistance]

If that GFS verifies I wouldn't even care if it snows again this winter

If that GFS verifies a lot of people in Oklahoma are going to need new roofs.

St. Louis gets over 35 inches of snow from that 1 week time

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z is like a mini version of the March Superstorm, just shifted west hahaha

[Iceresistance]

18z is like a mini version of the March Superstorm, just shifted west hahaha

What about the CFS? With This?

 https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1740112965322281129

[srainhoutx]

I keep reading that a SSW event will take place around January 6th. Affects won’t be felt for two weeks. Will it be Europe or N. America? Or both? Have any of yall seen this? Just trying to get your thoughts on this. Thanks.

SSW events are difficult to predict until we actually see the wind reversal actually happen. The models often rush things to only revert back to nothing to see here. The past couple of days the ensembles have somewhat muted the chance of full blown SSW event developing next week. Are the models correcting or is it just another head fake? Also remember that many times these SSW events have little to no impact on our part of the world. Fingers crossed for Winter Weather lovers across America, the event is real and not just another model fantasy.