Texas Winter 2023-2024

[srainhoutx]

I keep reading that a SSW event will take place around January 6th. Affects won’t be felt for two weeks. Will it be Europe or N. America? Or both? Have any of yall seen this? Just trying to get your thoughts on this. Thanks.

SSW events are difficult to predict until we actually see the wind reversal actually happen. The models often rush things to only revert back to nothing to see here. The past couple of days the ensembles have somewhat muted the chance of full blown SSW event developing next week. Are the models correcting or is it just another head fake? Also remember that many times these SSW events have little to no impact on our part of the world. Fingers crossed for Winter Weather lovers across America, the event is real and not just another model fantasy.

[Cpv17]

18z is like a mini version of the March Superstorm, just shifted west hahaha

What about the CFS? With This?

https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1740112965322281129

But is the CFS even a good model? ….

[Iceresistance]

18z is like a mini version of the March Superstorm, just shifted west hahaha

What about the CFS? With This?

https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1740112965322281129

But is the CFS even a good model? ….

I know it's not a good model, but I have never seen anything like that from it before.


What it does hint is a very active January incoming.

[Itryatgolf]

What about the CFS? With This?

https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1740112965322281129

But is the CFS even a good model? ….

I know it's not a good model, but I have never seen anything like that from it before.


What it does hint is a very active January incoming.

He is trying to insinuate that the SSW is reason the CFS is that cold

[Cpv17]

The end of the 18z GEFS looks interesting.

[Ntxw]

Some of the forcing in the Pacific is actually shifting to a Nina like state for a period. That actually does allow very cold air to build into Canada. Perhaps the SSW, cold model shifts is all a part of cold unloading on this side of the world. We want to keep the Nino STJ to interject with it. I don't take the CFS verbatim but it is increasingly showing higher pressures indicative of more Nina forcing that drives big HPs, which it didn't show much of at all for December. -PDO.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS coming in significantly colder

[Cpv17]

Holy cow, now that’s some blocking going on on that 0z GFS run, sheesh! Got that upside down V look.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Some of the forcing in the Pacific is actually shifting to a Nina like state for a period. That actually does allow very cold air to build into Canada. Perhaps the SSW, cold model shifts is all a part of cold unloading on this side of the world. We want to keep the Nino STJ to interject with it. I don't take the CFS verbatim but it is increasingly showing higher pressures indicative of more Nina forcing that drives big HPs, which it didn't show much of at all for December. -PDO.

Is it the forcing in the Indian Ocean youre mentioning? It's taking a turn.

[Brent]

Starting to see several people up here talking about something big in January. Well see if it holds up into reality range

[Ntxw]

Looks like next Tuesday evening into Weds morning might be the first opportunity for frozen precip in some of TX. Shortwave with some cold a loft (not a lot) and too warm at the surface currently depicted.

[Ntxw]

Some of the forcing in the Pacific is actually shifting to a Nina like state for a period. That actually does allow very cold air to build into Canada. Perhaps the SSW, cold model shifts is all a part of cold unloading on this side of the world. We want to keep the Nino STJ to interject with it. I don't take the CFS verbatim but it is increasingly showing higher pressures indicative of more Nina forcing that drives big HPs, which it didn't show much of at all for December. -PDO.

Is it the forcing in the Indian Ocean youre mentioning? It's taking a turn.

That's it! P1 and P2 actually correlates well with cold here.

[Fifty Rock]

Looks like next Tuesday evening into Weds morning might be the first opportunity for frozen precip in some of TX. Shortwave with some cold a loft (not a lot) and too warm at the surface currently depicted.

Can you post this?

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like next Tuesday evening into Weds morning might be the first opportunity for frozen precip in some of TX. Shortwave with some cold a loft (not a lot) and too warm at the surface currently depicted.

Can you post this?

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1 ... ndly=false


1% chance of snow for Denton

[Brent]

Tiny snowflakes here! Okay for like 2 minutes

[gpsnowman]

Tiny snowflakes here! Okay for like 2 minutes

Tulsa for the win with the 2 minute flizzard. Hope to see some of that soon!!

[orangeblood]

Looks like next Tuesday evening into Weds morning might be the first opportunity for frozen precip in some of TX. Shortwave with some cold a loft (not a lot) and too warm at the surface currently depicted.

Can you post this?

GEFS becoming even more bullish for multiple winter storms across the southern plains over the next 10-14 days

[Brent]

Tiny snowflakes here! Okay for like 2 minutes

Tulsa for the win with the 2 minute flizzard. Hope to see some of that soon!!

Time for a real storm now that's seriously the first flakes I've seen here

[bubba hotep]

Drought improvements:

[bubba hotep]

18z is like a mini version of the March Superstorm, just shifted west hahaha

What about the CFS? With This?

https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1740112965322281129

Same model, for same timeframe, different day



Ignoring the long range CFS, uncertainty seems higher than normal for the pattern after D5.