Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

That is quite a blizzard in Kansas on the GFS

It keeps trying to show a very big storm around the 10th

[Stratton23]

GFS tries to dump an arctic mother load down the central/ western us , you love to see it

[Cpv17]

GFS tries to dump an arctic mother load down the central/ western us , you love to see it

The HP gets up to 1056MB near the border of the Yukon Territories and British Columbia. That would do the trick. Biggest takeaway is that we seem to be loading up our source region with some pretty significant cold air.

[gboudx]

When wxman57 starts posting about going reinforce his wall along <insert border here>, then you know it’s on.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

From LC this morning

Happy New Year, everyone!

Yes, that is the traditional, 1939 version of "Auld Lang Syne" by Guy Lombardo And His Royal Canadians in the link. 2024 will prove to be a fresh s start in terms of apparent weather in the U.S. and Canada. The first week or so may start out mild, but there is a clue of change in the current pattern. Namely the southern branch storm track. Disturbances this weekend and next have significant cold pools aloft, and chances for minor/scattered snow and sleet will reach as far south as Texas and lower Appalachia during the course of the next ten days.

But the feature that will prove to be the "shaker upper" is now in the Aleutian Islands. In ten days, note how the ECMWF and all other models move the huge storm! The low pressure and trough will likely move into Oklahoma, then recurve into Pennsylvania before turning north into Quebec and Ontario. With -EPO ridging to its left and a blocking signature building across Baffin Island and Greenland (-AO/-NAO), guidance deepens a trough complex from the Arctic Circle to Mexico, showing linkage with the subtropical jet stream. So all of that cold which you have been missing will spread south and east, reaching the Gulf and East Coast around January 15.

There is decent potential for storms (Gulf Coaster and Nor'Easter) with this arrangement, so we must watch future predictive measures. The analogs and stratospheric height/temperature predictions are in tune with the analogs that we should maintain a colder look across the U.S. through February.

Thank you for a wonderful year and your commentary, everyone. Be safe this holiday weekend and I look forward to a happy, and successful, 2024!

[Harp.1]

I don’t recall LC ever being this certain about his forecast. Very encouraging, even for us folks in Louisiana.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

1973 is THE analog for this.

[gpsnowman]

I don’t recall LC ever being this certain about his forecast. Very encouraging, even for we folks in Louisiana.

And no mention of a January thaw. Mentioned on here before, what would we be thawing out from? Most of the nation has been above normal for weeks. Sounds like all that changes soon. Good times ahead folks.

[bubba hotep]

1/6 - 1/8 is lining up to be our best shot at a Southern Plains winter storm so far this winter. Could be a big hitter for some areas

[Cpv17]

One thing is for sure, models are looking quite wet for southeast TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Jan 8th - 10th. Models are pretty consistent on a very big storm in the Southern Plains.

[Stratton23]

12z GEFS trending even colder

[Harp.1]

12z GEFS trending even colder

For what time period?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 12th and beyond

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS trending even colder

Nice thing about the GEFS is that it doesn't transition the mean trough out of the SW and keeps higher heights over Greenland into the extended range.

[Cpv17]

Looks like a pretty strong cold blast coming in around January 9th on the GEFS.

[Stratton23]

lol the 12z Euro is a snow lover’s dream in north texas

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is setting up a snow on top of snow scenario for some in the Southern Plains.

It does get temps into the 40s for a couple of days, but I would imagine some of this snow sticks around, especially in shaded areas.



Then, the next system is ready to kick out.

[Stratton23]

12z EPS is faster with the cold, and its colder as well, now has moved the time frame up to the 9th, previous runs had the cold coming in around the 11-12th ish

[Brent]

Well the euro would continue the trend of snowing everywhere else but here