Texas Winter 2023-2024

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#781 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 2:50 pm

Well this sounds good!

https://x.com/judah47/status/1740801759 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/174080362 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Not a split but a stretch would still work. Best news I’ve seen on this in the past 3 days or so.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Dec 29, 2023 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#782 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 29, 2023 2:50 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro is setting up a snow on top of snow scenario for some in the Southern Plains.

It does get temps into the 40s for a couple of days, but I would imagine some of this snow sticks around, especially in shaded areas.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023122912/234/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Then, the next system is ready to kick out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023122912/ec-fast_z500aNorm_namer_11.png


The pattern is really ripe. We could get one of those legendary stretches if things swings our way. If it can be just a little bit colder we'll get winter wx event after winter wx event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#783 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 2:57 pm

Ntwx ensembles have been getting progressively colder each run, one winter event after the other would be incredible, fingers crossed!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#784 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 29, 2023 2:57 pm

Brent wrote:Well the euro would continue the trend of snowing everywhere else but here :roll: :lol:


The systems before the real cold shots are all mostly dynamics driven. I see them equivalent to the storms that hit Waco back in early 2021 before the big blast. DFW largely missed out while it snowed to the south, much about storm track.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#785 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:Well the euro would continue the trend of snowing everywhere else but here :roll: :lol:


The systems before the real cold shots are all mostly dynamics driven. I see them equivalent to the storms that hit Waco back in early 2021 before the big blast. DFW largely missed out while it snowed to the south, much about storm track.


Yeah I mean I think whatever happens next week is just a bonus with the pattern coming but still. Tuesday Night Wednesday morning has a shot at a flizzard here too
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#786 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:24 pm

My wife does admin/bookkeeping work for clients, and one is a group tied to the Fort Worth rodeo with a kick-off next week. Hopefully, the cold and snow happens later. But, bring it on after the third. Lol. My yearbook kids have done great with deadlines, so not too stressed if we lose a few days due to a snowstorm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#787 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:15 pm

Mid Jan 1964 has shown up a few times cpc ensembles. Of course DFW got a foot of snow and 4F back then.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#788 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:40 pm

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dsnows

List of DFW winter events going back to the 1800s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#789 Postby orangeblood » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:Mid Jan 1964 has shown up a few times cpc ensembles. Of course DFW got a foot of snow and 4F back then.


Cfsv2 hinting at this end of week 2 into week 3
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#790 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:12 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Mid Jan 1964 has shown up a few times cpc ensembles. Of course DFW got a foot of snow and 4F back then.


Cfsv2 hinting at this end of week 2 into week 3
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1703851200/1705449600-fRMaRQhyzhQ.png


Is that the motherload? Would that rival 2021?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#791 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:14 pm

Image

Holy smokes!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#792 Postby orangeblood » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:25 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Mid Jan 1964 has shown up a few times cpc ensembles. Of course DFW got a foot of snow and 4F back then.


Cfsv2 hinting at this end of week 2 into week 3
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1703851200/1705449600-fRMaRQhyzhQ.png


Is that the motherload? Would that rival 2021?


No, not at this point but a really potent arctic outbreak is on the table and MAJOR winter storm potential that precedes it around Jan 10-11th
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#793 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:29 pm

Cpv17 holy moly thats a crazy pic!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#794 Postby Harp.1 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:31 pm


Interpret this please.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#795 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:59 pm

18z GFS….. drops the arctic bomb down the central plains
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#796 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:00 pm

CPC has me with a chance of heavy snow for the first time this winter second week of January. It's mostly in Oklahoma though so far
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#797 Postby Harp.1 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:04 pm

Stratton23 wrote:18z GFS….. drops the arctic bomb down the central plains

But dry… :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#798 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:09 pm

Harp.1 remember precipitation is not something to worry about right now past 5 days, it does attempt to show some precip moving across the state as the arctic air barrels in, we got a long ways to go, pattern is extremely favorable for a big winter storm
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#799 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:14 pm

Harp.1 wrote:

Interpret this please.


Active storm track with some cold air in place.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#800 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:17 pm

Harp.1 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:18z GFS….. drops the arctic bomb down the central plains

But dry… :cry:


Precipitation doesn’t matter past 3-4 days on the operationals. With the active pattern shown on the ensembles, I’m not too worried about precipitation being an issue. We need the cold air to get established first and foremost.
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