Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

Still going to be a lot to watch with these individual storms. -AAM and MJO phases are Nina-like (of course with some Nino flavor.) We will build a snowpack up north in the coming set up, setting stage for cold later January.

[Cpv17]

Still going to be a lot to watch with these individual storms. -AAM and MJO phases are Nina-like (of course with some Nino flavor.) We will build a snowpack up north in the coming set up, setting stage for cold later January.

Yeah, but will the teleconnections and MJO still be favorable then? I mean they seem decently favorable right now.

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Still going to be a lot to watch with these individual storms. -AAM and MJO phases are Nina-like (of course with some Nino flavor.) We will build a snowpack up north in the coming set up, setting stage for cold later January.

Yeah, but will the teleconnections and MJO still be favorable then? I mean they seem decently favorable right now.

So far we have seen it doesn't matter favorable or not favorable teleconnections, mjo, whatever the cause if there is no cold source, won't work. If we don't net early January, late Jan into Feb is Nino primetime.

[Brent]

Well our TV met teased about the storm around the 9th but Friday night looks interesting here on the euro

Definitely could be one of those patterns where there's multiple setups

[Cpv17]

Oof, the 0z Euro!

Is that a good oof or a bad oof?

It’s good. The Euro seems to be a lot more promising than the GFS. The GFS even lost the rain for me that it had while the Euro still has it.

[Stratton23]

I like the 12z GEFS, thats what i call a reload pattern, dumps the arctic air straight down into the central plains, and we stay below normal for quite a while, all the while another load of cold air begins to build in canada, all i will say is, I see cold and I dont see a warmup anytime soon after this pattern starts, good!

[gpsnowman]

Oof, the 0z Euro!

Is that a good oof or a bad oof?

It’s good. The Euro seems to be a lot more promising than the GFS. The GFS even lost the rain for me that it had while the Euro still has it.

Excellent. I was worried that we lost the good trends when I woke up this morning. If nothing else, let's get a moisture stream across the state then worry about cold in 10 days or so.

[Ntxw]

Well our TV met teased about the storm around the 9th but Friday night looks interesting here on the euro

Definitely could be one of those patterns where there's multiple setups

The late week storm is decoupled from the flow. There has been some hard swings where it travels. Period of change.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the CPC is ever so slowly beginning to buy in on the colder pattern.

[HockeyTx82]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/SntDvvf/Temps.png [/url]

Is this to be taken seriously or just one model showing an extreme? That's some cold down in NTX for sure.

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/SntDvvf/Temps.png [/url]

Is this to be taken seriously or just one model showing an extreme? That's some cold down in NTX for sure.

The CFS is awful. I never believe anything it says.

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/SntDvvf/Temps.png [/url]

Is this to be taken seriously or just one model showing an extreme? That's some cold down in NTX for sure.

At that range nothing should be taken seriously

Even the day 10 GFS and Euro is all over the place

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/SntDvvf/Temps.png [/url]

Is this to be taken seriously or just one model showing an extreme? That's some cold down in NTX for sure.

At that range nothing should be taken seriously

Even the day 10 GFS and Euro is all over the place

Yep. The big trough late on the 12z Euro is already shifting north compared to previous runs.

[Stratton23]

Once that trough dives down into the central/ western us, its not going anywhere at least for an extended period due to the massive - NAO block really slowing things down, ensembles agree on on the main piece of the trough moving out, however they have a secondary dip behind the main trough which helps to reinforce the cold air, I see a good 7-14 days of below normal to at times well below temps, I dont think the thaw is going to come to fruition as ridging doesnt seem like that much of a player even in the long range

[HockeyTx82]

Is this to be taken seriously or just one model showing an extreme? That's some cold down in NTX for sure.

At that range nothing should be taken seriously

Even the day 10 GFS and Euro is all over the place

Yep. The big trough late on the 12z Euro is already shifting north compared to previous runs.

So then what good does it do for anyone to look at it? I mean there has to be something there, right?

[Stratton23]

lol not that it matters but the 18z GFS run is just straight up garbage, toss that one in the trash can or paper shredder please

[Ntxw]

In periods of change you look to ensembles for guidance. All you can really do beyond 3-5 days is see where below normal anomalies sit and ridge/trough configuration at 500mb. When storms are cut off from the main flow to the north a jog and mean thousands of miles. The upper flow also sometimes doesn't represent the surface either, contradicting SW flow a loft erodes or shunts cold air on the models too.

Beaufort/Chukchi ridge is setting up now. In a few days we will see what kind of cold there is to work with then eventually once the storms crash into the west coast how the two link up.

[Harp.1]

Agree, the 18z GFS is absolute GARBAGE.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx beaufort ridging? Wouldnt we want the ridge to be centered over alaska?