Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Harp.1]

What I’ve noticed, and I don’t think it’s my imagination, for a few days we were at least seeing signs the arctic air coming down towards the end of the GFS runs. This is kinda what was expected from mid January on. The “trend” was in our favor. I’m not talking about an individual run, I’m talking about the trend. Lately now, all we are seeing is one pacific storm after the other hit the west coast and traverse east and then turn northeast over the central plains. No real cold air gets pulled down and the result is just rain. The end of the latest runs are trending warmer. That is my concern in the last day or two. Just my thoughts and observations, gentlemen. Thanks

[Stratton23]

The ensembles are not trending warmer, its opposite actually , the ensemble runs are trending colder with each new run that comes in, this big US trough also sets up cross polar flow from the arctic with the greenlack block and the beauford ridging, I have seen this so many times with arctic air, models will struggle with this setup for a while, the trend has been colder, not warmer, also cross polar flow gices the models alot of trouble as well, hince the wide swings in outcomes from each model run

[Harp.1]

Those are the operational runs and its no surprise to see them struggling as this is a complex pattern, the ensembles runs are trending colder with each new run that comes in, this big US trough also sets up cross polar flow from the arctic with the greenlack block and the beauford ridging, I have seen this so many times with arctic air, models will struggle with this setup for a while, the trend has been colder, not warmer

I’m referring to the operational runs. Just an observation I’ve made in the last couple of days. Thought I would post my thoughts and get other opinions. I don’t doubt what you are saying about the ensembles and I certainly hope they are correct!

[Stratton23]

Ah i see, dont go by the operational runs at this range, the ensembles are much more reliable, and they definitely have a better feel for how the pattern will evolve, its very typical for the operational models to have wacky runs each time a new run comes out, especially with arctic air, it is a complex pattern, but dont worry about the cold, their is very high confidence we will get cold air to come down here, its just how cold? Each system that passes by will help to rebuild the snowpack to our north, and that is critical

[Itryatgolf]

I hope we don't continue to kick the can down the road after mid January if it don't get cold and sufficient cold for winter storms because the weeks move fast, especially during the winter. I'm hoping we get the favorable setup we need for winter storms here!!

[Ntxw]

I hope we don't continue to kick the can down the road after mid January if it don't get cold and sufficient cold for winter storms because the weeks move fast, especially during the winter. I'm hoping we get the favorable setup we need for winter storms here!!

We haven't had a shutout winter since 2019-2020. We'll get the favorable periods.

[Brent]

I'm not sure what the concern is about... This is still the best looking pattern we've seen all winter tbh. Yeah it's probably not gonna be February 2021 but was it ever

Just because the GFS was lame doesn't really mean anything

Plenty of ensemble noise still

Tbh most of the people I heard from thought it would be more end of January anyway at first

[Itryatgolf]

I hope we don't continue to kick the can down the road after mid January if it don't get cold and sufficient cold for winter storms because the weeks move fast, especially during the winter. I'm hoping we get the favorable setup we need for winter storms here!!

We haven't had a shutout winter since 2019-2020. We'll get the favorable periods.

I hope your correct buddy. We got 43 pages and got a long ways to go to get close to where we need to be imo.

[Itryatgolf]

I'm not sure what the concern is about... This is still the best looking pattern we've seen all winter tbh. Yeah it's probably not gonna be February 2021 but was it ever

Just because the GFS was lame doesn't really mean anything

Plenty of ensemble noise still

Luckily it's still early Brent. We have time still. With only 43 pages, we got a long ways to go and hopefully we can play catchup soon

[Harp.1]

I'm not sure what the concern is about... This is still the best looking pattern we've seen all winter tbh. Yeah it's probably not gonna be February 2021 but was it ever

Just because the GFS was lame doesn't really mean anything

Plenty of ensemble noise still

Tbh most of the people I heard from thought it would be more end of January anyway at first

It’s not that the last GFS run was lame. It’s that it’s been trending that way during the last day or two.

[Itryatgolf]

I'm not sure what the concern is about... This is still the best looking pattern we've seen all winter tbh. Yeah it's probably not gonna be February 2021 but was it ever

Just because the GFS was lame doesn't really mean anything

Plenty of ensemble noise still

Tbh most of the people I heard from thought it would be more end of January anyway at first

It’s not that the last GFS run was lame. It’s that it’s been trending that way during the last day or two.

Typically niños are backloaded I guess for a reason. Not sure why that's the case more times than not. Like niñas are frontloaded usually. I just feel we need additional changes to get into the pattern we want to see moving forward

[Ntxw]

I hope we don't continue to kick the can down the road after mid January if it don't get cold and sufficient cold for winter storms because the weeks move fast, especially during the winter. I'm hoping we get the favorable setup we need for winter storms here!!

We haven't had a shutout winter since 2019-2020. We'll get the favorable periods.

I hope your correct buddy. We got 43 pages and got a long ways to go to get close to where we need to be imo.

We go through this yearly, not a lot happens most years up until February. For me personally, I just want to see January 1" snowfall or greater and break the drought.

[Brent]

I'm not sure what the concern is about... This is still the best looking pattern we've seen all winter tbh. Yeah it's probably not gonna be February 2021 but was it ever

Just because the GFS was lame doesn't really mean anything

Plenty of ensemble noise still

Tbh most of the people I heard from thought it would be more end of January anyway at first

It’s not that the last GFS run was lame. It’s that it’s been trending that way during the last day or two.

Typically niños are backloaded I guess for a reason. Not sure why that's the case more times than not. Like niñas are frontloaded usually. I just feel we need additional changes to get into the pattern we want to see moving forward

Well yeah more snowpack to the north would help but that should be starting next week even if we don't see any

I still have a 2-3 inch snow mean on the EPS and GEFS so I mean not much has changed there

[Ntxw]

Ntwx beaufort ridging? Wouldnt we want the ridge to be centered over alaska?

Our big cold blasts since 2020 have all started with Beaufort Sea ridging that seeds cold into Canada. This includes Feb 2021, Feb 2022, Dec 2022, and late Jan 2023. The upcoming early to mid month period is of similar value.

[Stratton23]

through hour 198 the 00z CMC is significantly colder , and it was the warmest mode of the three globals before this run

[Brent]

CMC is snowing here Friday afternoon

The day 8-9 storm is cutting too far north I think

[Stratton23]

Holy guacamole thats a cold CMC run!

[Harp.1]

Holy guacamole thats a cold CMC run!

Cold but dry, unfortunately.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS coming in much colder as well, impressive blocking signature

[Cpv17]

Ntwx beaufort ridging? Wouldnt we want the ridge to be centered over alaska?

Ideally, we would want the ridge to pop over northern Alaska and the NW part of the NW Territories and extend N well into the Beaufort Sea. If that were to happen, it would grab air straight out of the Artic and eastern Siberia. And if that ridge would connect from there to Greenland, oh boy!