Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Harp.1]

00z CMC brings a lobe of the Tropospheric polar vortex near the US canada border lol

Cool!

[Cpv17]

I really really hate how the models are just blowing everything up into far east Texas and points east of there! It’s been this same wash, rinse, and repeat pattern for the past several months regarding the precip. Almost everything has been east of 45 lately. When are we going to get a system to blow up over Texas for a freaking change?!? It doesn’t seem to happen anymore

[snownado]

I'm not seeing anything to indicate significant cold coming south in the next 10 days or more. I note that the 00Z GFS doesn't even have freezing temps in D-FW through the 16th. 06Z run has a light freeze in D-FW the 15th and 16th. Very fast zonal flow is not good for bringing Arctic air south. Nothing significant in the 00Z Euro, either. Pattern is good for producing precipitation, though, with snow as far south as Oklahoma.

Winter is delayed? Over?

Plenty of winter left but the window closes fast. Hoping end of January into February is good to us!

Not sure if this is sarcasm.

The ERCOT power grid failure due to the long duration extreme cold/ice was in the middle of February.

So in essence, the window is going to remain open for a while.

[wxman57]

While it is true that the models do not handle shallow Arctic air well, it is also true that if there is no very cold, shallow Arctic air in the source region that it can't come down here. There is certainly no such airmass in Canada today. Ten-day models have some cold air moving south, but they indicate temps just barely below zero in NE Montana and NW N. Dakota around the 11th-12th. Not particularly cold for up there. We'll need a major pattern change to bring any Arctic air down to Texas. The current rapid zonal flow we are experiencing is quite common with a strong El Nino. While such a pattern would cause more cloudy and wet days, and slightly below normal temps (-1.46F for December in north Houston), the extreme cold eludes us.

Monitor the source region. Look for any significant warming in Alaska, too. Unusually warm temps in Alaska often mean very cold temps in the lower 48.

[HockeyTx82]

While it is true that the models do now handle shallow Arctic air well, it is also true that if there is no very cold, shallow Arctic air in the source region that it can't come down here. There is certainly no such airmass in Canada today. Ten-day models have some cold air moving south, but they indicate temps just barely below zero in NE Montana and NW N. Dakota around the 11th-12th. Not particularly cold for up there. We'll need a major pattern change to bring any Arctic air down to Texas. The current rapid zonal flow we are experiencing is quite common with a strong El Nino. While such a pattern would cause more cloudy and wet days, and slightly below normal temps (-1.46F for December in north Houston), the extreme cold eludes us.

Monitor the source region. Look for any significant warming in Alaska, too. Unusually warm temps in Alaska often mean very cold temps in the lower 48.

So you said do now, did you mean do not or was there an upgrade for the new year or something?

Or did you get into the system and mess with them again?

[Cpv17]

And that’s why we need a good -EPO. It’s hard to get cold here with just a -AO/NAO combo unless you just have a really deep ULL.

[wxman57]

While it is true that the models do NOT handle shallow Arctic air well, it is also true that if there is no very cold, shallow Arctic air in the source region that it can't come down here. There is certainly no such airmass in Canada today. Ten-day models have some cold air moving south, but they indicate temps just barely below zero in NE Montana and NW N. Dakota around the 11th-12th. Not particularly cold for up there. We'll need a major pattern change to bring any Arctic air down to Texas. The current rapid zonal flow we are experiencing is quite common with a strong El Nino. While such a pattern would cause more cloudy and wet days, and slightly below normal temps (-1.46F for December in north Houston), the extreme cold eludes us.

Monitor the source region. Look for any significant warming in Alaska, too. Unusually warm temps in Alaska often mean very cold temps in the lower 48.

So you said do now, did you mean do not or was there an upgrade for the new year or something?

Or did you get into the system and mess with them again?

Typo: "do NOT". I fixed it.

[Texas Snow]

Ah another new year of getting hyped up for cold and winter storms just to have the heat miser step in with the voice of reason. Perhaps my New Years resolution this year will be to wait for him to chime in before believing the hype, despite usually being disappointed in his usual message

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That block at 10 days on the GFS. Oh boy. Thats what we have been looking for.

[cajungal]

Ah another new year of getting hyped up for cold and winter storms just to have the heat miser step in with the voice of reason. Perhaps my New Years resolution this year will be to wait him him to chime in before believing the hype, despite usually being disappointed in his usual message

From Larry Cosgrove. Not over yet. Still hope

The party's over. Time to see some real winter weather in North America.

A new year. A new month. A new 500MB longwave configuration taking shape! Unlike previous weeks where you read about only minor distribution of cold air, when you look at the posted graphics you find the warmer air relegated to west, north, and east of the continent. In index description that some of you follow, a -EPO/-AO/-NAO alignment. Anchoring this array will be a prominent Baffin Island/Greenland blocking ridge.

It figures that is the territory closer to the North Pole is warmer, then those living at lower latitudes will be colder. Stirring the pot will be a virulent (as in intense and numerous) storm track with linkage to an impressive subtropical jet stream. There are four systems in this sequence, the first of which is now developing in Texas. That impulse will be followed by another disturbance and frontal structure coming into the West Coast. This second system has the chance to bring some snow and sleet (along with heavy rain/thunder along the Gulf Coast) to parts of the Interstate 20 corridor on January 6, then substantial snowfall to Appalachia, the Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England on January 7.

It is the third piece of energy in the series, however, that deserves your full attention for two reasons. One, virtually all of the model guidance shows the low pressure becoming a major winter storm of the "Panhandle Hooker B" variety (W TX....SE MO....IN....NW PA....S QC). There will likely be threats for strong winds and severe thunderstorms in Dixie and the East Coast as well. But the result of the passage of the storm will be drainage of Arctic air first into Texas and Mexico and then along the length of the Eastern Seaboard around January 12-13.

There are some unknowns beyond the next two weeks, but most of the forecast guidance (especially at the 10MB level and with tropical forcing) points toward ongoing cold intrusions and another important low pressure area along the Gulf and Atlantic shorelines later in the month.

It is a New Year. And I feel real good, don't you?

[Stratton23]

Lol nothing has changed, the cold is coming, this is going to be a step down process, with each system that lays down snow to our north, the better, its going to get cold, its not overhyped, just relax

[Brent]

Lol nothing has changed, the cold is coming, this is going to be a step down process, with each system that lays down snow to our north, the better, its going to get cold, its not overhyped, just relax

Exactly it doesn't even start the process here til next week really

[wxman57]

Ah another new year of getting hyped up for cold and winter storms just to have the heat miser step in with the voice of reason. Perhaps my New Years resolution this year will be to wait for him to chime in before believing the hype, despite usually being disappointed in his usual message

I corrected your "wait him him" to be "wait for him" in your original post. Good advice.

[vbhoutex]

Ah another new year of getting hyped up for cold and winter storms just to have the heat miser step in with the voice of reason. Perhaps my New Years resolution this year will be to wait for him to chime in before believing the hype, despite usually being disappointed in his usual message

I corrected your "wait him him" to be "wait for him" in your original post. Good advice.

[Texas Snowman]

Ah another new year of getting hyped up for cold and winter storms just to have the heat miser step in with the voice of reason. Perhaps my New Years resolution this year will be to wait for him to chime in before believing the hype, despite usually being disappointed in his usual message

I take a little different approach here (having a little fun here, and remembering some previous S2K battles) and call it the “Wxman57 Winter Weather Probability Meter.”

In short, the more active Heat Miser is in this Texas Winter Weather thread, then the more confident I am something is going to happen (the old Hamlet quote “The gentleman doth protest too much, methinks.”).

And on the other end of the spectrum, the less Wxman57 is involved in this thread, then the less likely we are to see winter weather and cold.

[JayDT]

Ah another new year of getting hyped up for cold and winter storms just to have the heat miser step in with the voice of reason. Perhaps my New Years resolution this year will be to wait for him to chime in before believing the hype, despite usually being disappointed in his usual message

I take a little different approach here (having a little fun here, and remembering some previous S2K battles) and call it the “Wxman57 Winter Weather Probability Meter.”

In short, the more active Heat Miser is in this Texas Winter Weather thread, then the more confident I am something is going to happen (the old Hamlet quote “The gentleman doth protest too much, methinks.”).

And on the other end of the spectrum, the less Wxman57 is involved in this thread, then the less likely we are to see winter weather and cold.

Lol yup!! This is the same approach I take And honestly it works out in our favor most times..

[gpsnowman]

Ah another new year of getting hyped up for cold and winter storms just to have the heat miser step in with the voice of reason. Perhaps my New Years resolution this year will be to wait for him to chime in before believing the hype, despite usually being disappointed in his usual message

I take a little different approach here (having a little fun here, and remembering some previous S2K battles) and call it the “Wxman57 Winter Weather Probability Meter.”

In short, the more active Heat Miser is in this Texas Winter Weather thread, then the more confident I am something is going to happen (the old Hamlet quote “The gentleman doth protest too much, methinks.”).

And on the other end of the spectrum, the less Wxman57 is involved in this thread, then the less likely we are to see winter weather and cold.

That's what I've always thought. The more engaged he is in conversation translates to something happening in the weather. I do enjoy the back and forth goading in the wintertime. The more 57 the better. Now if his plush private jet gets ready for a trip to Melbourne get ready winter lovers!!

[Brent]

Something is still brewing next week for sure... Several EPS members still showing me getting absolutely buried. It hasn't budged off this idea

We gotta start somewhere. I mean there's been nothing up here besides 2 minutes of flakes last week

[HockeyTx82]

My brother sent me a screenshot of Denton county emergency management. They are showing some cold for next week coming down the plains if you have facebook, check it out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The end of the euro is similar to the gfs. Block over Greenland. PV shifts to western Hudson Bay.