Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

Thats some serious cold entering the US on the 00z Euro, wow

The blocking it has near Greenland towards the end of the run is crazy lol and that trough it has digging down at the end is pretty much maxed out reflecting how strong that ridge is above it. And it finally broke out my fav pink colors lol

[Iceresistance]

At this rate, it's going to be a big snowstorm in Texas! That is a HUGE jump south from the CMC!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1It.gif

[HockeyTx82]

At this rate, it's going to be a big snowstorm in Texas! That is a HUGE jump south from the CMC!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1It.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1It.gif

Texas is a rather large state, what part specifically and how much confidence do we have in one run and one model this far out?

Where's Lucy?

[Iceresistance]

At this rate, it's going to be a big snowstorm in Texas! That is a HUGE jump south from the CMC!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1It.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1It.gif

Texas is a rather large state, what part specifically and how much confidence do we have in one run and one model this far out?

Where's Lucy?

Northern Texas is currently likely if this trend keeps up.

However, it's just one model run and I forgot to put that in.

[wxman57]

Your reverse psychology tactics will not work on me. I've just returned from the Canadian border where I have fortified my wall against any Arctic air intrusions. That data did not make it into the 6Z GFS run. I'll be working on my Red River wall fortifications over the next week. Still no freeze indicated for Houston in either the GFS or EC for the next 10-16 days. Meanwhile, the pilot of my private Arctic air escape jet has taken a 2-week vacation. He won't be needed.

[Ntxw]

At this rate, it's going to be a big snowstorm in Texas! That is a HUGE jump south from the CMC!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1It.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1It.gif

This storm looks just like 09 Christmas eve blizzard, that storm was low to mid 540s dm at 500mb. Almost within range heights and proximity track. Anything below 540 is extremely rare for our region. ICON gets down to 520s which I think the south has only seen from something like March '93 superstorm.

[Iceresistance]

Trending colder for Friday's system, snow in Tulsa from the GFS for the first time.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1Rc.gif

[Ntxw]

Needless to say there will be a big blizzard early next week, wherever the big system tracks and to the W-NW-N of it. Maybe even southwest of the system due to its strong core.

[Ntxw]

Thats some serious cold entering the US on the 00z Euro, wow

That was an extreme 0z towards the end. -AO/-NAO severe block works, depends on what it's blocking and in that case after a favorable -EPO cold to be blocked.

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, and yes, it includes the current 12z run


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1if.gif

[Ntxw]

Oh boy, and yes, it includes the current 12z run

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1if.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1if.gif

12z GFS is already 530s in New Mexico. The models are trending deeper the closer we are getting!

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, and yes, it includes the current 12z run

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1if.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1if.gif

12z GFS is already 530s in New Mexico. The models are trending deeper the closer we are getting!

531 dm right over me!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj10g.png

[Ntxw]

The high res models might have something stupid like 522dm when we get into range.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS going way of last night's Euro. Plenty of cold loading up in W-C Canada.

[txtwister78]

12z GFS going way of last night's Euro. Plenty of cold loading up in W-C Canada.

Agreed. Finally getting that -EPO signal we've been waiting for. Teleconnections lining up for what you would look for to deliver arctic air down the plains into Texas.

[Stratton23]

Typical SW flow model biacy on the GFS trying to hold back the arctic air from coming south, CMC still cold, I dont like seeing that ridge nose in from the GOM/ caribbean, that wont allow the trough to really dig

[Ntxw]

Typical SW flow model biacy on the GFS trying to hold back the arctic air from coming south, CMC still cold, I dont like seeing that ridge nose in from the GOM/ caribbean, that wont allow the trough to really dig

Won't have that problem if the -AO/-NAO block is backtracking from Greenland to Hudson Bay. Arctic is displaced to Montana.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS going way of last night's Euro. Plenty of cold loading up in W-C Canada.

This will be interesting to watch. WCAN cold loading up seems pretty certain, but the ensembles really don't want to dump it into the Southern Plains. The 00z Euro EPS had some colder risk, but the majority of the members raise highest over Mexico and never let the cold air push south.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS going way of last night's Euro. Plenty of cold loading up in W-C Canada.

Agreed. Finally getting that -EPO signal we've been waiting for. Teleconnections lining up for what you would look for to deliver arctic air down the plains into Texas.

This is a wild signal for -EPO/-AO/-NAO combo


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1FM.png

[Ntxw]

12z GFS going way of last night's Euro. Plenty of cold loading up in W-C Canada.

This will be interesting to watch. WCAN cold loading up seems pretty certain, but the ensembles really don't want to dump it into the Southern Plains. The 00z Euro EPS had some colder risk, but the majority of the members raise highest over Mexico and never let the cold air push south.

I'd favor some bleeding of the cold air. Assuming all this blocking appears. I'm just glad cold is coming for Canada. We have suffered early this winter no matter how good the pattern is without the cold source.