Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Texas Snow]

This is their first AFD even mentioning the S word for anyone . That's actually quite bold this far out.

Along those lines, Rick Mitchell on NBC5 made a point of how close the snow gets to North Texas on Monday while saying he didn’t think there was much to worry about here, then giving the standard. It’s a long ways off….

[Harp.1]

That 18z GFS was a doozy! Overnight mode runs are going to be intriguing, teleconnections do suggest the GFS may be too far west with where it dumps the arctic air, we will see

Yes, but will the atmosphere find any moisture to make it fun? That is the million dollar question!

[Ntxw]

Also happened in late Jan 1966, another very strong caliber but not quite super El Nino.





DFW in late Jan 1966.

[Ntxw]

Also a bit off the topic but 1965-1966, 1972-1973 the second year was the wetter year post the Nino.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also happened in late Jan 1966, another very strong caliber but not quite super El Nino.

https://i.imgur.com/wBk5FyJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/VCSfqfq.gif

DFW in late Jan 1966.

https://i.imgur.com/fbF8GuX.png

The 18z looks similar to Dec 1990

[Ntxw]

Also happened in late Jan 1966, another very strong caliber but not quite super El Nino.

https://i.imgur.com/wBk5FyJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/VCSfqfq.gif

DFW in late Jan 1966.

https://i.imgur.com/fbF8GuX.png

The 18z looks similar to Dec 1990
https://imgur.com/a/1znL7s0

No -NAO/Greenland block in Dec 1990 though.

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 week 2 and week 3 on the cold train. I'm convinced we're going to see a prolonged 7-10 day cold period here pretty soon.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also happened in late Jan 1966, another very strong caliber but not quite super El Nino.

https://i.imgur.com/wBk5FyJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/VCSfqfq.gif

DFW in late Jan 1966.

https://i.imgur.com/fbF8GuX.png

The 18z looks similar to Dec 1990
https://imgur.com/a/1znL7s0

No -NAO/Greenland block in Dec 1990 though.

Correct. The block should hold it into place much longer.

[wxman57]

Temps may be too "warm" for snow down to the D-FW area next week. Upper 40s or so. Snow likely for northern Oklahoma, though. Canadian model has snow for D-FW, but it's always has a strong cold bias and it's never right. The 18Z GFS has temps in Houston down to - the upper 20s on the 18th, then warming from there. Light freeze is all. Hard freeze for Dallas area, possibly. It is January, though. This system could be a big tornado producer for AL/GA next Tuesday. Good setup for severe storms across the SE.

I'll add, the long-range GFS is indicating cross-Polar flow after the 18th, but we have seen how well it does at that range during the hurricane season. Personally, I'd get far more excited about temps in the 80s vs. freezing weather.

[Ntxw]

Temps may be too "warm" for snow down to the D-FW area next week. Upper 30s or so. Snow likely for northern Oklahoma, though. Canadian model has snow for D-FW, but it's always has a strong cold bias and it's never right. The 18Z GFS has temps in Houston down to - the upper 20s on the 18th, then warming from there. Light freeze is all. Hard freeze for Dallas area, possibly. It is January, though. This system could be a big tornado producer for AL/GA next Tuesday. Good setup for severe storms across the SE.

I'll add, the long-range GFS is indicating cross-Polar flow after the 18th, but we have seen how well it does at that range during the hurricane season.

CMC was king late last January. Blew both the GFS and Euro out of the water!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Temps may be too "warm" for snow down to the D-FW area next week. Upper 30s or so. Snow likely for northern Oklahoma, though. Canadian model has snow for D-FW, but it's always has a strong cold bias and it's never right. The 18Z GFS has temps in Houston down to - the upper 20s on the 18th, then warming from there. Light freeze is all. Hard freeze for Dallas area, possibly. It is January, though. This system could be a big tornado producer for AL/GA next Tuesday. Good setup for severe storms across the SE.

I'll add, the long-range GFS is indicating cross-Polar flow after the 18th, but we have seen how well it does at that range during the hurricane season.

I saw that.... Cross polar flow already has him worried!!

[wxman57]

Temps may be too "warm" for snow down to the D-FW area next week. Upper 30s or so. Snow likely for northern Oklahoma, though. Canadian model has snow for D-FW, but it's always has a strong cold bias and it's never right. The 18Z GFS has temps in Houston down to - the upper 20s on the 18th, then warming from there. Light freeze is all. Hard freeze for Dallas area, possibly. It is January, though. This system could be a big tornado producer for AL/GA next Tuesday. Good setup for severe storms across the SE.

I'll add, the long-range GFS is indicating cross-Polar flow after the 18th, but we have seen how well it does at that range during the hurricane season.

CMC was king late last January. Blew both the GFS and Euro out of the water!

That certainly wasn't the case with the 2021 event or the February 2022 freeze down here. Canadian was way too cold. I have the forecasts saved. Just checking its forecast for Feb 3-5, 2022, it was forecasting a low of 4F at IAH 36 hours out. The low was only 27.

[Ntxw]

Temps may be too "warm" for snow down to the D-FW area next week. Upper 30s or so. Snow likely for northern Oklahoma, though. Canadian model has snow for D-FW, but it's always has a strong cold bias and it's never right. The 18Z GFS has temps in Houston down to - the upper 20s on the 18th, then warming from there. Light freeze is all. Hard freeze for Dallas area, possibly. It is January, though. This system could be a big tornado producer for AL/GA next Tuesday. Good setup for severe storms across the SE.

I'll add, the long-range GFS is indicating cross-Polar flow after the 18th, but we have seen how well it does at that range during the hurricane season.

CMC was king late last January. Blew both the GFS and Euro out of the water!

That certainly wasn't the case with the 2021 event or last year's freeze down here. Canadian was way too cold. I have the forecasts saved.

I recall we all had this battle in the thread late last January. GFS and Euro hardly had a 'freeze' down to DFW because SW flow a loft and I took a lot of heat saying the synoptics allowed for surface cold bleeding. The CMC and it's ensembles were the most 'consistent'. DFW had 90+ hours below freezing. Portastorm ended with no power and there was slippery ice in North Texas several days in the week.

[wxman57]

That last event was Feb 3-5, 2022, not 2023. No freeze in 2023. Canadian predicted 4F at IAH for 12Z Tuesday on it's Sunday evening run. The low hit 27F Tuesday. Euro was warmest at only 14F, but that was still way too cold.

[Ntxw]

That last event was Feb 3-5, 2022, not 2023. No freeze in 2023. Canadian predicted 4F at IAH for 12Z Tuesday on it's Sunday evening run. The low hit 27F Tuesday.

Maybe for Houston, but the last cold snap with the model battle was January 2023 into the first of Feb.

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS mean snowfall has made a jump south.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjALc.gif

[Wthrfan]

Temps may be too "warm" for snow down to the D-FW area next week. Upper 40s or so. Snow likely for northern Oklahoma, though. Canadian model has snow for D-FW, but it's always has a strong cold bias and it's never right. The 18Z GFS has temps in Houston down to - the upper 20s on the 18th, then warming from there. Light freeze is all. Hard freeze for Dallas area, possibly. It is January, though. This system could be a big tornado producer for AL/GA next Tuesday. Good setup for severe storms across the SE.

I'll add, the long-range GFS is indicating cross-Polar flow after the 18th, but we have seen how well it does at that range during the hurricane season. Personally, I'd get far more excited about temps in the 80s vs. freezing weather.

You get that in Houston 10 months out of the year! Let the rest of us have some fun!

[Quixotic]

That last event was Feb 3-5, 2022, not 2023. No freeze in 2023. Canadian predicted 4F at IAH for 12Z Tuesday on it's Sunday evening run. The low hit 27F Tuesday. Euro was warmest at only 14F, but that was still way too cold.

Only for Houston

[Stratton23]

00z ICON coming in colder and faster with the arctic airmass, its done a pretty good job with Arctic air the last few years

[Stratton23]

00z CMC is colder, 00z GFS has a system digging down into baja california while the arctic air is moving south