Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Iceresistance]

The CMC and Ikon hold the PV near British Columbia. Different from the GFS and Euro.

So similar to Dec '22, the ensembles are soooooo consistent at 210 hrs out. Shocking to see the control and the ensembles so similar that far out.

Something BIG is indeed coming.

[Gotwood]

The CMC and Ikon hold the PV near British Columbia. Different from the GFS and Euro.

So similar to Dec '22, the ensembles are soooooo consistent at 210 hrs out. Shocking to see the control and the ensembles so similar that far out.

I didn’t care for that cold much all we got was some flurries out of it. If it’s going to be super cold I need some snow to play with lol.

[txtwister78]

[wxman57]

No snow south of the Red River in either the GFS or Euro. Euro does have a hard freeze (mid 20s) into D-FW on the 13th. Light freeze in Houston (30-31) before the warm up.

Interesting 500mb pattern in the 12Z Euro. Look at that fast west to east flow into northern CA on the 14th. Fast southern storm track. Flow from the Gulf of Alaska vs. northern Canada. Not a pattern for extreme cold in Texas.

[rwfromkansas]

Man, the mood around here tanked in the last 4 pages or so I read. Lol. But, it still seems more likely than not that cold will come, with I hope some precip. But, maybe not next week.

[Stratton23]

That cold air is coming straight south, nothing has changed, im expecting the arrival of the arctic front by friday or saturday of next week, going with the ICON because its likely going to have a better handle than the GFS or Euro, big cold is coming, ignore the models attempting to push the arctic air back, not happening at all

[Ntxw]

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS//ANALOG/EXTx/2024010500/F240/PTMPA000_gefsF240.png

This is where it will likely be. The east west stuff, call me a skeptic!

[Brent]

Man the euro just buries me. Maybe one of these runs will actually verify cause we're still in awful shape here for now. Endless complaining on Facebook about why it hasn't snowed for real yet

[Gotwood]

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS//ANALOG/EXTx/2024010500/F240/PTMPA000_gefsF240.png

This is where it will likely be. The east west stuff, call me a skeptic!

Real question is will there be any precipitation?

[Ntxw]

You can see on the Euro and CMC of what mentioned the other day about how tough it is for cold to go uphill through mountain ranges. Even in the face of 500mb trough centered in the Pac NW. The path of least resistance is downhill in the high plains.

[Stratton23]

I feel the ICON and CMC solution’s may be closer to what may actually happen with the cold, it sees the path of least resistance and shoots the cold down the central plains, should see a correction east by the euro and GFS IMO

[orangeblood]

You can see on the Euro and CMC of what mentioned the other day about how tough it is for cold to go uphill through mountain ranges. Even in the face of 500mb trough centered in the Pac NW. The path of least resistance is downhill in the high plains.

https://i.imgur.com/sGEGUl7.gif

https://i.imgur.com/cTRaZD3.gif

Yep, Negative 3 plus index on AO EPO and WPO so dense cold is piling up in NW Canada....it's coming much further south than currently modeled, we go thru this every year. All the Operational models showing classic frz rain/sleet overrunning scenario at 5h for Texas next weekend/following week

[Iceresistance]

Man the euro just buries me. Maybe one of these runs will actually verify cause we're still in awful shape here for now. Endless complaining on Facebook about why it hasn't snowed for real yet

What does the run look like?

[rwfromkansas]

Wichita KS got another 3-4 inches of snow today it looks like.

Their current forecast leans toward another event on the 8th.

Hopefully, things will move south for future events and not just be a dry cold...that's my worry right now.

I don't like the mention of freezing rain. I want snow, dang it.

[Brent]

Man the euro just buries me. Maybe one of these runs will actually verify cause we're still in awful shape here for now. Endless complaining on Facebook about why it hasn't snowed for real yet

What does the run look like?

Just a couple inches Tuesday it has a full blown snowstorm starting near me next Friday and then temps plunge to zero

[Iceresistance]

You can see on the Euro and CMC of what mentioned the other day about how tough it is for cold to go uphill through mountain ranges. Even in the face of 500mb trough centered in the Pac NW. The path of least resistance is downhill in the high plains.

https://i.imgur.com/sGEGUl7.gif

https://i.imgur.com/cTRaZD3.gif

The -NAO Greenland Block and the ECR are going to deny the cold from going farther east.

[Iceresistance]

Man the euro just buries me. Maybe one of these runs will actually verify cause we're still in awful shape here for now. Endless complaining on Facebook about why it hasn't snowed for real yet

What does the run look like?

Just a couple inches Tuesday it has a full blown snowstorm starting near me next Friday and then temps plunge to zero

I am becoming convinced that the BIG one will be Friday instead of Monday/Tuesday.

[Brent]

What does the run look like?

Just a couple inches Tuesday it has a full blown snowstorm starting near me next Friday and then temps plunge to zero

I am becoming convinced that the BIG one will be Friday instead of Monday/Tuesday.

.

Yeah so far at least in Oklahoma Monday Tuesday is more of an advisory level event. I do see a lot more members with a big storm Friday Saturday vs the first storm too

[Iceresistance]

Just a couple inches Tuesday it has a full blown snowstorm starting near me next Friday and then temps plunge to zero

I am becoming convinced that the BIG one will be Friday instead of Monday/Tuesday.

.

Yeah so far at least in Oklahoma Monday Tuesday is more of an advisory level event. I do see a lot more members with a big storm Friday Saturday vs the first storm too

It could escalate back into warning levels

[snowballzzz]

These runs are reminding me of Snovid 2021.