Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is BRUTAL!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjPEN.png

[Harp.1]

This place got real quiet all of a sudden…

[Cpv17]

This place got real quiet all of a sudden…

It’s because we’re in between model runs and there’s not much else to talk about for now. If snow was on the table this place would be hoppin! I think most are kinda bummed out right now cuz snow doesn’t seem to be on the table.

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt rule out snow yet, some GEFS and EPS members show this possibility, I want to see what the mesoscale models show once they get into range, as we get closer to this arctic outbreak , sometimes those models can pick up on disturbances riding across the arctic boundary that the globals cant see

[Iceresistance]

IT'S COMING!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjPhV.png

[orangeblood]

:double:
IT'S COMING!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjPhV.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjPhV.png

Yes it is…we see it time and time again with these setups, Ensembles trending colder and colder. Now have 7 day averages 10 F plus below normal across a big chuck of Texas. Likely going colder and spreading south

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't see the MJO warm phase being amped, it will be short lived, nor will it be that warm. It will feel warm after the arctic phase, but will only be slightly above normal. Lock this pattern in, as it will return headed into February, and possible a late season cold push as we head into March.

[Cpv17]

I don't see the MJO warm phase being amped, it will be short lived, nor will it be that warm. It will feel warm after the arctic phase, but will only be slightly above normal. Lock this pattern in, as it will return headed into February, and possible a late season cold push as we head into March.

This is the kinda information I’ve been wanting to hear. Great post!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't see the MJO warm phase being amped, it will be short lived, nor will it be that warm. It will feel warm after the arctic phase, but will only be slightly above normal. Lock this pattern in, as it will return headed into February, and possible a late season cold push as we head into March.

Based on our wonky background state and previous analogs, this makes sense.

[Quixotic]

This place got real quiet all of a sudden…

We’re in between that lull where long range and short range are bubbling up. Long range has it, mid range loses it, short range picks it up again.

[Iceresistance]

I just saw this Tweet from TheProfessor, he is going to Guam

 https://twitter.com/IngyBall/status/1743479761857319202

[gpsnowman]

I just saw this Tweet from TheProfessor, he is going to Guam

https://twitter.com/IngyBall/status/1743479761857319202

Good for him. I remember he used to post while in class. Dedicated young man. I wonder if he is aware the weather is the same every day of the year in Guam.

[Stratton23]

00z ICON is even colder, teens in north texas as the front plows through central texas,

[Brent]

51 inches in Illinois on the GFS how about spreading some of that around

[Harp.1]

These models still will not let these vorts move south far enough. They shunt them off to the east and take the precipitation with them.

[Stratton23]

Looks like 00z Models are shifting the PV lobe a bit further east

[Iceresistance]

Blizzard Watch is up for Western Kansas already!

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN EFFECT FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Blizzard possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 or more
inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 to 60 mph creating whiteout
or near whiteout conditions.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through early Tuesday Morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very dangerous if not impossible travel,
especially by Monday afternoon and evening. Widespread blowing
snow significantly reducing visibility below one quarter mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard or near blizzard conditions will
likely continue through early Tuesday morning after snowfall
ends. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected to continue
through the morning hours Tuesday.

[Harp.1]

The silence at this last GFS run is deafening. I’ve seen enough. Goodnight folks. Maybe it’s clueless, I don’t know.

[Stratton23]

Once again the operational models are going to struggle mightly with this airmass, given how potent it is, pretty good bet this airmass is going to come in colder and faster than what the operational runs show, happens every time

[txtwister78]

The silence at this last GFS run is deafening. I’ve seen enough. Goodnight folks. Maybe it’s clueless, I don’t know.

The operational models are going to flip flop around at this range as we've mentioned on here before regarding arctic air, but if you stick to the ensembles, they will show you what the operational will go to in time.