Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

So is this Arctic intrusion due to the SSW?

I believe so. Looks like it caused the PV to split.

[Ntxw]

Late on the Euro Oklahoma is an icebox, northern part of the state below freezing, front tries to make it to Houston but some mysterious force is pushing against it along I-10.

[Sambucol]

Is this possibly going to be like Feb 2021?

[Ntxw]

Is this possibly going to be like Feb 2021?

We don't know yet. There are questions at 500mb orientation of PV lobe and 500mb trough. Some runs faster some runs slower. If the whole thing comes crashing down then possibly. At minimum we should get something like Dec 2022 at least. But make no mistake, this is a colder, more blocked pattern than December 2022.

[orangeblood]

Approaching minus 60 F in Montana next weekend. And check out the temp gradient from Texas Panhandle into Kansas

[Iceresistance]

Euro almost 1058hp with severe cold lined up the spine of the North American Rockies.

Canadian says hold my beer….1074 with nose of 1062 into Montana

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/namer/mslp_anom/1704542400/1705406400-okNDBRQk01g.png

How cold is it with the 1074 HP?

[Ntxw]

The run doesn't go beyond this but the cold is still pressing.

[orangeblood]

https://i.imgur.com/BUFtyMz.png

The run doesn't go beyond this but the cold is still pressing.

And that’s without snow cover. Get any of that and this is Feb 2021 territory. Send out the ERCOT Prep Alert!!!!

[Cpv17]

Late on the Euro Oklahoma is an icebox, northern part of the state below freezing, front tries to make it to Houston but some mysterious force is pushing against it along I-10.

Haha 57 will have a field day with that piece of information

[South Texas Storms]

https://i.imgur.com/BUFtyMz.png

The run doesn't go beyond this but the cold is still pressing.

And that’s without snow cover. Get any of that and this is Feb 2021 territory. Send out the ERCOT Prep Alert!!!!

ERCOT already said there will likely be rolling outages if we see an event like February 2021. There is only so much preparation they can do. If it's extremely cold with no sun and frozen precip, we're gonna have major issues.

[Cpv17]

Euro almost 1058hp with severe cold lined up the spine of the North American Rockies.

1058hp is rarely seen on the Euro. It’s the most conservative model out there with HP strengths.

[orangeblood]

https://i.imgur.com/BUFtyMz.png

The run doesn't go beyond this but the cold is still pressing.

And that’s without snow cover. Get any of that and this is Feb 2021 territory. Send out the ERCOT Prep Alert!!!!

ERCOT already said there will likely be rolling outages if we see an event like February 2021. There is only so much preparation they can do. If it's extremely cold with no sun and frozen precip, we're gonna have major issues.

Saw that…too many people in this state now with not enough Nat Gas/Nuclear Capacity, it’s all gone to wind and solar which aren’t particular reliable this time of year. Very concerning situation with the trend in these models!

[Stratton23]

Euro bottoms out at a 1060 high in wyoming, thats some serious bitter cold, short range models like the NAM will be very interesting once they get in range, concern of the globals being too warm is always their

[CaptinCrunch]

https://i.imgur.com/BUFtyMz.png

The run doesn't go beyond this but the cold is still pressing.

And that’s without snow cover. Get any of that and this is Feb 2021 territory. Send out the ERCOT Prep Alert!!!!

ERCOT already said there will likely be rolling outages if we see an event like February 2021. There is only so much preparation they can do. If it's extremely cold with no sun and frozen precip, we're gonna have major issues.

ERCOT needs to force non-essential businesses and agencies to shutdown to conserve power rather than rolling blackouts. We delt with that poor decision in 2021 and it caused major damage to properties and cause prolonged power outages to thousands of Texans. Lawyers will have a field day if the same issues happen again.

[rwfromkansas]

So the GFS sends the HP to the other side of the globe? Hopefully other models don’t do that, but it is an outlier.

[HockeyTx82]

So the GFS sends the HP to the other side of the globe? Hopefully other models don’t do that, but it is an outlier.

That's it, it's over, lights out.

Looks like we will be warming up next weekend now.

[Itryatgolf]

https://i.imgur.com/BUFtyMz.png

The run doesn't go beyond this but the cold is still pressing.

I hope we can score a winter storm in this upcoming pattern if it's going to be cold

[Brent]

Our met just posted below zero temps possible

There better be snow on the ground if we're doing that

[orangeblood]

So the GFS sends the HP to the other side of the globe? Hopefully other models don’t do that, but it is an outlier.

Next several will pin that dynamic down…if that bomb HP in the Beaufort heads into western Canada instead of up and over the pole, lookout below because it’s heading south (no where else to go due to blocking across both sides of North America)

[Ntxw]

So the GFS sends the HP to the other side of the globe? Hopefully other models don’t do that, but it is an outlier.

GFS is a progressive model. It's already sending a chunk of the PV out into the Atlantic where the cold air is washed out.