Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

There's a knowledgeable dude here who thinks the worst cold will stay NE

Fine with me no interest in another 2021 at all. 11 days near below freezing is not it

Idk man. The cold usually spills down straight into Oklahoma and Texas, unless the PNA is too far positive. I’m not sure what the PNA is looking like right now. Last I heard it was negative.

[Iceresistance]

There's a knowledgeable dude here who thinks the worst cold will stay NE

Fine with me no interest in another 2021 at all. 11 days near below freezing is not it

Idk man. The cold usually spills down straight into Oklahoma and Texas, unless the PNA is too far positive. I’m not sure what the PNA is looking like right now. Last I heard it was negative.

PNA is currently neutral, it's expected to go negative.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S02Rj.png

[Stratton23]

The GEFS is still way colder than the OP run, i wish global models didnt suck with handeling cold air, would make forecasting coldee weather less tedious

[Stratton23]

ICON 12z has the arctic front pushing through central texas, way faster than any of the other guidance, IMO it has probably the best handle on whats going to happen with this airmass right now

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS is still way colder than the OP run, i wish global models didnt suck with handeling cold air, would make forecasting coldee weather less tedious

At this rate, it's going to be the GFS vs the entire model world, even against the GEFS!

[Wthrfan]

Help us amateurs out here…if I recall correctly, during the 2021 blast, the forecast (in Oklahoma) a few days before the passage of the initial front was showing 4 or 5 days of near freezing temps and a chance of a few inches of snow. The models grossly underestimated the cold. Is this pattern coming up similar? 57’s wall-building skills better have improved if things are looking as cold as some of the models say!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The GEFS is still way colder than the OP run, i wish global models didnt suck with handeling cold air, would make forecasting coldee weather less tedious

At this rate, it's going to be the GFS vs the entire model world, even against the GEFS!

I’m extremely confident the GFS will come around and start being consistent around the 48 hour timeframe from now.

[txtwister78]

Help us amateurs out here…if I recall correctly, during the 2021 blast, the forecast (in Oklahoma) a few days before the passage of the initial front was showing 4 or 5 days of near freezing temps and a chance of a few inches of snow. The models grossly underestimated the cold. Is this pattern coming up similar? 57’s wall-building skills better have improved if things are looking as cold as some of the models say!

Models tend to struggle with shallow arctic air further south and so it's not just the 2021 event (although to your point that was an embarrassing bust for several). Even the ensembles weren't cold enough then further south, but we've seen this play out before with other arctic outbreaks as well.

The ICON does fairly well I think and is similar to the NAM. Often with these you wait for the short-range guidance and typically you find the cold pushes faster and a day or two earlier than what most operational models indicate. It's almost a given.

[Tejas89]

Local mets in DFW don’t seem to be buying into anything extreme. Highs in the 40s through next Tuesday. Lows upper 20s.

[Ntxw]

Icon with highs in the mid teens for NTX. CMC coming in faster with cold. Went from 60s 0z to about 20F on this run. Then goes down to mid singles. .

[Stratton23]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic with the cold down here, highs in the teens- low twenties all the way down to the gulf coast wtf

[orangeblood]

Local mets in DFW don’t seem to be buying into anything extreme. Highs in the 40s through next Tuesday. Lows upper 20s.

It’s the same story every winter with local mets in the south, at some point you’d think they’d learn that models are horrendous with dense low level cold air masses. But same story with them every winter it seems, frustrating

[txtwister78]

Yeah let's hope that's an outlier...my goodness (CMC).

[Ntxw]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic with the cold down here, highs in the teens- low twenties all the way down to the gulf coast wtf

I know we hesitate to say 2021, rightfully so, but broader picture the air mass potentially is colder and larger in scope than was set in 2021. 2021 had the perfect trajectory to infiltrate Texas with snow and then cold. You get any good snow cover in this one and lights out.

[orangeblood]

The Canadian is one of the best models in these setups once it hones in, it’s been well documented over the years on this forum. But even it is all over the place right now, check out the difference from last night to this morning from next Monday morning

[txtwister78]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic with the cold down here, highs in the teens- low twenties all the way down to the gulf coast wtf

I know we hesitate to say 2021, rightfully so, but broader picture the air mass potentially is colder and larger in scope than was set in 2021. 2021 had the perfect trajectory to infiltrate Texas with snow and then cold. You get any good snow cover in this one and lights out.

Great point here. We didn't have a ton of snow cover preceding that event if I recall correctly and so whatever we get in the heartland will only increase the depth of the cold further south.

[Harp.1]

The CMC continues to be bullish on the cold. The GFS is not.

[orangeblood]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic with the cold down here, highs in the teens- low twenties all the way down to the gulf coast wtf

I know we hesitate to say 2021, rightfully so, but broader picture the air mass potentially is colder and larger in scope than was set in 2021. 2021 had the perfect trajectory to infiltrate Texas with snow and then cold. You get any good snow cover in this one and lights out.

Agreed, this has greater potential due to size and scope across the lower 48…infrastructure could be really strained. This Greenland Block is about as extreme as I’ve ever seen

[DallasAg]

Local mets in DFW don’t seem to be buying into anything extreme. Highs in the 40s through next Tuesday. Lows upper 20s.

It’s the same story every winter with local mets in the south, at some point you’d think they’d learn that models are horrendous with dense low level cold air masses. But same story with them every winter it seems, frustrating

I have to wonder how much of it is hedging and the popularity contest. Nobody wants to walk it back when they promise snow/cold and then it doesn't deliver. Everyone in NTX loves the positive surprise of it getting colder/snowier than predicted. Growing up in Dallas in the 70s/80s I can't recall how many times the local guys PROMISED us a good storm and/or cold only to have it fizzle for any long list of reasons: dry air, not enough cold, storm track went north/south, warm nose, etc.

FWIW the weather app on my iPhone has been entertaining to watch over the last 3-4 days. A couple of days ago it had a 45% chance of snow for Tuesday...that's gone. Yesterday it showed a Saturday morning low of 13 and temps staying at/below freezing through Monday. Today it's showing a high of 64 on Sunday, and no daily highs < 50 Jan 10-16. Gonna be a fun ride watching these move around.

Remember in 2021 and 2023 especially the models were pretty bad about how quickly the cold air seeps south. In 2021 we knew it would get cold by Fri/Sat, but the cold air started arriving Tuesday morning and we stayed in the ice box for 10 days. Last year it was the same: cold air started spilling in on Sunday morning and we spent the next week in an icy cold mess.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of GFS. That's a hedge I wouldn't bet. It's fighting the analogs and the other globals right now.