Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Wthrfan]

Local mets in DFW don’t seem to be buying into anything extreme. Highs in the 40s through next Tuesday. Lows upper 20s.

Most DFW mets don’t seem very good for it being a top media market. I listen to Evan and Steve M (not even on TV)…

Pete is an utter clown. He’s a joke.

It’s weird. In Kansas you could really trust any of the mets were great. Merrill Teller was my main guy but lots were good.

Don’t know how old you are, but when I was growing up in DFW, Harold Taft was more right more often than anyone else. He was so old school, he actually drew his own weather maps!

[Cpv17]

Boy, todays CPC forecast leaves a lot to desire. They’re not bullish at all. Hugging the GFS, I guess.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 thats going to age like sour milk if they are going with the GFS lol

[Brent]

So far the EPS and GEFS mean isn't any colder than yesterday here which is what I'm watching for if we're gonna get into big time cold. Unless it trends colder(certainly possible but not seeing it yet) I'm not going all in yet

[IcyTundra]

So far the EPS and GEFS mean isn't any colder than yesterday here which is what I'm watching for if we're gonna get into big time cold. Unless it trends colder(certainly possible but not seeing it yet) I'm not going all in yet

Same here I think it is going to be cold but nothing like Feb 2021 or even Dec 2022.

[Stratton23]

Sub freezing highs are looking probable , think this will be closer to the december 2022 event, but this time precipitation does look to be on the table as well

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well if you go by the forecasts for way up here the coldest high it has is 39…We’ve had that this winter already with regular run of the mill cold fronts.

[Portastorm]

Sub freezing highs are looking probable , think this will be closer to the december 2022 event, but this time precipitation does look to be on the table as well

Yep. That’s the current thinking of our NWS office (EWX) … at least temperature-wise. But we still have a long ways until next weekend.

[bubba hotep]

So far the EPS and GEFS mean isn't any colder than yesterday here which is what I'm watching for if we're gonna get into big time cold. Unless it trends colder(certainly possible but not seeing it yet) I'm not going all in yet

The ensembles have been slightly trending colder for DFW but that has mostly been b/c they are slowly giving up on the warmer clusters while holding the colder clusters. A 3-5 day stretch of below freezing looks like a real possibility.

[Texas Snow]

Evan Andrews with a sensible post:

With the HYPE machines running overtime lately, it's time to put the weather forecast in perspective.

While it's mostly amateur hobbyists, it's not all on them. I've seen people with PHD's insisting the universe will end in a week. Breaking News: It won't.

This might be hard to stomach, but before the internet existed it got COLD in winter. Sometimes VERY cold. And even in Texas. Before computer registration, I spent one January walking from class to class registering for my Meteorology courses during a whole WEEK where the temperature never got above ZERO, was as low as -28 with wind chills of -80. And you know what? We survived.

February 2021 taught us in Texas that the bottom could drop out and be worse than anything we knew. But this upcoming cold (still more than a WEEK away) is NOT that pattern at least here in north Texas.

After almost 25 years in Texas, you'd think people would realize we get winter cold snaps, usually at least twice per year and mainly in January and February. We cover pipes. And plants. And sometimes we get ice, and we survive it.

If Covid taught us anything, it should have been to enjoy today as tomorrow isn't a given. We're a beautiful, sunny 60 degrees today. After AM showers (a few gusty) we're going to be 60 again tomorrow. While Tuesday will be windy and chilly in the 40s to near 50 (but turning sunny) ...Wednesday is back to another mild 60 degree day. And it looks as if Thursday is likely 60 as well. While we will turn windy and colder Friday and stay chilly this weekend...it now doesn't look AS cold as we previously thought. Probably in the 40s both days. That's SEVEN more days. SEVEN.

Yes, it looks like Arctic air moves in after that. But our best models still massively disagree on how cold. Whether it's icy or dry and whether it's brief or lasts a few days. And you should all know by now that anything over 7 days isn't worth worrying about.

So ENJOY the next few days and try not to be sucked into the social media VORTEX!

[Stratton23]

And the GFS continues to struggle mightly

[bubba hotep]

Evan Andrews with a sensible post:

With the HYPE machines running overtime lately, it's time to put the weather forecast in perspective.

While it's mostly amateur hobbyists, it's not all on them. I've seen people with PHD's insisting the universe will end in a week. Breaking News: It won't.

[Stratton23]

Actually I take that back, good step in the right direction from the 18z gfs run lol

[Ntxw]

And the GFS continues to struggle mightly

It does try to get there though. It's below freezing in Oklahoma Friday and holds it for a little while, the overrunning system is on it causing the issues. It waits for it to come through before sending more cold (though I don't think it's cold enough.)

In essence all the models are converging on the same idea. A bitter cold air mass will pool in along the Rockies. How they discern the TPV orientation and what vorticity pieces opens the gates is the difference.

[gpsnowman]

I'm no amateur but I have a PHD in Hobby and I can say with certainty that the universe will end if we don't see snow in the next 10 days.

[gpsnowman]

Seriously, I like Evan Andrews and I appreciate Texas Snow posting it, but that is the most woe is me, preachy, absurd, sappy, mini-harangue, bunch of crap I have ever heard. Ok rant over.

[Brent]

GFS went from a big snowstorm here for so many runs to hardly any snow

I'm gonna be mad if we don't get a real snow in this pattern

[ThunderSleetDreams]

And the GFS continues to struggle mightly

It does try to get there though. It's below freezing in Oklahoma Friday and holds it for a little while, the overrunning system is on it causing the issues. It waits for it to come through before sending more cold (though I don't think it's cold enough.)

In essence all the models are converging on the same idea. A bitter cold air mass will pool in along the Rockies. How they discern the TPV orientation and what vorticity pieces opens the gates is the difference.

What's your thought on the orientation?

[Cpv17]

Seriously, I like Evan Andrews and I appreciate Texas Snow posting it, but that is the most woe is me, preachy, absurd, sappy, mini-harangue, bunch of crap I have ever heard. Ok rant over.

Seems like the majority of the mets around here just model hug and don’t use experience or knowledge gained from previous events.

[aggiecutter]

Seriously, I like Evan Andrews and I appreciate Texas Snow posting it, but that is the most woe is me, preachy, absurd, sappy, mini-harangue, bunch of crap I have ever heard. Ok rant over.